🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-26 21:06:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-26 21:07:22·⚡ 决策 06-29 21:33:29 +3d00h·119.7 天前
散户推文随想:中美AI竞争、Chinese模型蒸馏与frontier模型需KYC认证(非事件)
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
just throwing out a random thought, the UBS report is anecdotally true + and it's interesting there's more Chinese repo…
不做 UBS.US
纯噪音+实体误报:正文'the UBS report'是引用某分析师报告,瑞银集团本身不是事件主体;无任何可定价催化,方向不可判,定位不出真实交易主体
不做 GOOGL.US
GOOGL仅因正文把Gemini作为'昂贵推理模型'举例而被抽取,与Alphabet股价无可交易关联;整条推文是散户随想('just throwing out a random thought'),无催化、无预期差
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗
主要风险
- 实体抽取误把'UBS report'(分析师报告引用)当成瑞银集团、把Gemini举例当成GOOGL交易主体——这是误报,不是事件
- 若有真实UBS研报底稿或Trump政府'暂停Fable/Mythos访问'的官方动作,应作为独立信号另判;本推文仅为转述+个人观点,不足以定价
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,515 字
just throwing out a random thought, the UBS report is anecdotally true + and it's interesting there's more Chinese reports on Anthropic distillation.
Many US startups/companies using AI:
Are using Chinese models like DeepSeek since they’re much cheaper than Gemini/OpenAI/Anthropic reasoning models for cost per task.
Kinda a catch 22 when US is built on capitalism and everyone goes for the cheaper options.
I think the US just has to get good and out innovate here:
- both with heavy KYC-auth frontier models for US only like Mythos given those are being distilled by competitors. and amybe staggered tiers for allied partners so US is always ahead
Maybe something like dedicated AI Google auth like FaceID + Persona would do the trick before access/key creation for the newer models, then short lived scopes.
At least addressing those simpler fake/stolen account + pool allegations, requiring biometrics before use.
Then US Gov drafting new regulations making it illegal for sharing access similar to identity forgery with bank accounts.
- then the most obvious one is just heavily optimized reasoning models that mogs DeepSeek and others.
Kinda good Trump admin paused Fable/Mythos access, imo not quite sure why a trillion dollar company keeps letting itself get distilled over and over again.
There should be friction added if you’re accessing something close to ASI.
TLDR: US just needs to good at cheap inference and add bank-grade authentication to AI model access. Easier said than done tho.
Many US startups/companies using AI:
Are using Chinese models like DeepSeek since they’re much cheaper than Gemini/OpenAI/Anthropic reasoning models for cost per task.
Kinda a catch 22 when US is built on capitalism and everyone goes for the cheaper options.
I think the US just has to get good and out innovate here:
- both with heavy KYC-auth frontier models for US only like Mythos given those are being distilled by competitors. and amybe staggered tiers for allied partners so US is always ahead
Maybe something like dedicated AI Google auth like FaceID + Persona would do the trick before access/key creation for the newer models, then short lived scopes.
At least addressing those simpler fake/stolen account + pool allegations, requiring biometrics before use.
Then US Gov drafting new regulations making it illegal for sharing access similar to identity forgery with bank accounts.
- then the most obvious one is just heavily optimized reasoning models that mogs DeepSeek and others.
Kinda good Trump admin paused Fable/Mythos access, imo not quite sure why a trillion dollar company keeps letting itself get distilled over and over again.
There should be friction added if you’re accessing something close to ASI.
TLDR: US just needs to good at cheap inference and add bank-grade authentication to AI model access. Easier said than done tho.
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