🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:11:30时区推断·⟳ 抓取 10:11:41·⚡ 决策 06-27 16:13:26 +6h01m·122.1 天前
马斯克/SpaceX 获 FTC 批准收购光通信初创 Mesh Optical(1.6T 光模块),推文借此猜测利好商用激光器供应商
事件本身真实(FTC 6-25 批准,Bloomberg/TechCrunch 6-26 报道),且方向上确认'光互连是对的路'——但这是已扩散 1-2 天的旧闻,本推文只是二次解读。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems t…
不做 SPCX.US
SpaceX 为私有公司,SPCX.US 非干净的 SpaceX 权益($2T 报价存疑);且收购 $50M 微型初创、对价未披露,对买方完全不重大,无 edge。
不做 SIVE.US
stock_quote 取价失败、price_snapshot 无 K 线,流动性不可得无法成交;且其作为 Mesh 供应商纯属推文推测、无任何确认。
不做 LITE.US
$64B 巨头对 $50M 初创采购不敏感、无确认供货关系、旧闻已扩散,且当日 -5.2% 下跌直接否定利好逻辑,无 edge。
不做 MTSI.US
推文自承关联'更弱'、无确认关系、当日 -5.5% 下跌,买入无依据。
不做 POET.US
仅作类比提及非直接相关;当日 -7%、近5日 -22%、近20日 -29% 处急跌趋势,'低位/超跌'不是看多理由,接飞刀无 edge。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
关键理由
- 事件本身真实(FTC 6-25 批准,Bloomberg/TechCrunch 6-26 报道),且方向上确认'光互连是对的路'——但这是已扩散 1-2 天的旧闻,本推文只是二次解读。
- 推文的可交易落点全是猜测:Mesh 仅 $50M A 轮小公司、收购对价未披露(=小型 bolt-on),所有报道均未点名任何供应商,'利好商用激光器商'纯属作者推断,无一手确认。
- 被点名的'受益股'当日全线下跌(LITE -5.2%/MTSI -5.5%/POET -7.0%),市场用脚投票否定该利好逻辑,无 edge 可做。
主要风险
- 若后续 SpaceX 公布具体供应商(如点名某上市光芯片厂),则会出现真正可交易的二阶催化——届时需重新研判,但目前无此信息。
- POET 等小盘近期暴跌后若出现超跌反弹,可能被误读为本事件驱动,实为独立行情,勿混淆。
原文全文
展开原文 · 814 字
$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup.
Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable).
It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies.
$SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET?
Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so.
Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell.
For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already).
As well as valuations from M&A desirability.
Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.
Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable).
It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies.
$SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET?
Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so.
Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell.
For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already).
As well as valuations from M&A desirability.
Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.
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