🐦 推特SerenityV2 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:26:50时区推断·⟳ 抓取 10:29:22·⚡ 决策 06-27 13:48:45 +3h19m·122.1 天前
KOL二次扩散 Agility Robotics(人形机器人)经Churchill XI SPAC上市,$CCXI→$AGLT,Q4 de-SPAC
纯属旧闻二次扩散无新alpha:6/24官宣已3日,TechCrunch/Yahoo/BusinessWire铺开,KOL仅个人喊单,CCXI 5日已+34.5%、今日再+11.4%、坐在52周高($13.98)上,price-in高
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
I'm actually excited for the United States gets its first pure play Humanoid public company! At a personally compelling…
不做 CCXI.US
①已充分price-in、无edge:6/24官宣旧闻3日全网铺开,CCXI 5日+34.5%、今日再+11.4%坐52周高,KOL仅二次扩散;②真催化(de-SPAC并表)Q4 2026、3-6个月后远超事件窗口,当下只能买溢价SPAC壳;③R/R差:现价$13.845对NAV/PIPE $10溢价~38%,下行-28%到NAV+取消赎回风险,历史de-SPAC完成日先例+3日中位-22.6%/胜率33%。不开空(无强空催化、仅'溢价过高'属弱理由触红线+热门SPAC借券…
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
关键理由
- 纯属旧闻二次扩散无新alpha:6/24官宣已3日,TechCrunch/Yahoo/BusinessWire铺开,KOL仅个人喊单,CCXI 5日已+34.5%、今日再+11.4%、坐在52周高($13.98)上,price-in高
- 真催化(de-SPAC并表)在Q4 2026、约3-6个月后,远超事件交易窗口;当下能买的只是溢价的SPAC壳,无近端可交易事件
- 估值/结构性R/R差:PIPE与信托NAV=$10(Foxconn领投),现价$13.845=对NAV溢价~38%,下行到NAV底约-28%+SPAC取消/赎回风险;历史de-SPAC完成日普遍暴跌(本档先例+3日中位-22.6%/胜率33%)
主要风险
- 人形机器人是当红主题,SPAC壳可能继续非理性冲高(今日6x量+11%),踏空风险存在——但这是博傻动量、非基本面edge,不构成做空理由(无强空催化+热门SPAC借券大概率紧/贵,红线不开空)
- 若真要参与该主题,正确时点是临近Q4 de-SPAC时按sell-the-news逻辑重判(需届时核实AGLT可借券),而非现在追+38%溢价的壳
历史先例(按相似度)
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,000 字
I'm actually excited for the United States gets its first pure play Humanoid public company!
At a personally compelling valuation like Unitree's $6.5B (they're IPOing at $2.5B)
That I personally invested in Agility Robotics. Couple days ago when they first announced it.
$CCXI is the current name -> ticker change $AGLT on IPO
It's IPOing ~September per news sources, so around 3M from now, so a lot of waiting time, but less so than $WLAC / $BRUN.
As a TLDR rundown of what I've found so far + my thoughts:
It's a very commercializable humanoid (eg. warehouses, delivery, etc), compared to others like Figure (~$49B) that are general purpose.
And I personally heavily favor application-specific ones for workforce automation, that can step-function into becoming general purpose.
IPO valuation is ~$2.5B, but since it's trading as a holding company now and is up a decent amount, it's roughly ~$4.4B pro forma last I checked.
In terms of dilution, there's a 180 day lockup period, which is a very green flag for SPAC structures.
In terms of fundamentals:
- "Agility also says it has $300M+ of multi-year Digit v5 orders and a pipeline of 30+ customers"
- "65,000+ operating hours"
- GXO, Schaeffler, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, and Mercado Libre as external customers, with Amazon and others testing it
So it’s definitely not vaporware/promises, and is actually commercializable.
Their investor list includes:
$NVDA, Foxconn, $AMZN, Softbank + others.
As for warnings: current BOM is ~$125k+ since they claim 75% of components are sourced from US, but they're trying to get that down to $50K.
So there is US scarcity, compared to Optimus where large part of BOM is China suppliers.
There's also a chance the SPAC gets canceled + filings get delayed past Nov.
That being said I'm just sharing the IPO news and personal thoughts. Probably going to do more research this weekend, but I'm very excited.
It kinda feels like ChatGPT when it first got announced (infancy)
At a personally compelling valuation like Unitree's $6.5B (they're IPOing at $2.5B)
That I personally invested in Agility Robotics. Couple days ago when they first announced it.
$CCXI is the current name -> ticker change $AGLT on IPO
It's IPOing ~September per news sources, so around 3M from now, so a lot of waiting time, but less so than $WLAC / $BRUN.
As a TLDR rundown of what I've found so far + my thoughts:
It's a very commercializable humanoid (eg. warehouses, delivery, etc), compared to others like Figure (~$49B) that are general purpose.
And I personally heavily favor application-specific ones for workforce automation, that can step-function into becoming general purpose.
IPO valuation is ~$2.5B, but since it's trading as a holding company now and is up a decent amount, it's roughly ~$4.4B pro forma last I checked.
In terms of dilution, there's a 180 day lockup period, which is a very green flag for SPAC structures.
In terms of fundamentals:
- "Agility also says it has $300M+ of multi-year Digit v5 orders and a pipeline of 30+ customers"
- "65,000+ operating hours"
- GXO, Schaeffler, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, and Mercado Libre as external customers, with Amazon and others testing it
So it’s definitely not vaporware/promises, and is actually commercializable.
Their investor list includes:
$NVDA, Foxconn, $AMZN, Softbank + others.
As for warnings: current BOM is ~$125k+ since they claim 75% of components are sourced from US, but they're trying to get that down to $50K.
So there is US scarcity, compared to Optimus where large part of BOM is China suppliers.
There's also a chance the SPAC gets canceled + filings get delayed past Nov.
That being said I'm just sharing the IPO news and personal thoughts. Probably going to do more research this weekend, but I'm very excited.
It kinda feels like ChatGPT when it first got announced (infancy)
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