🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▲ 赚 +3.89% · 已结算把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:26:50时区推断·⟳ 抓取 10:29:22·⚡ 决策 06-27 16:13:35 +5h44m·121.9 天前
Agility Robotics 借壳 Churchill Capital XI(CCXI→AGLT)$2.5B SPAC 上市,首家美股纯人形机器人公司
人形机器人主题正热 + 真实商业化基本面($300M+ Digit v5 多年订单、GXO/Schaeffler/Toyota/Amazon 实客、NVDA/Amazon/Foxconn/SoftBank 投资人),首家美股纯人形标的有稀缺性,动量上周五再加速 +11.4%(6x 量),方向偏多。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
I'm actually excited for the United States gets its first pure play Humanoid public company! At a personally compelling…
▲ 赚 +3.89%入场 06-29 盘前首笔 @15.75 → 离场 06-30 常规开盘 @16.40
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑人形机器人主题正热 + 真实商业化基本面($300M+ Digit v5 多年订单、GXO/Schaeffler/Toyota/Amazon 实客、NVDA/Amazon/Foxconn/SoftBank 投资人),首家美股纯人形标的有稀缺性,动量上周五再加速 +11.4%(6x 量),方向偏多。
怎么买 限价买入 不高于 14.3、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +15%(半仓)/+35%(清仓) · 止损 -15% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 SPAC 延期/告吹/审批受阻的任何一手消息(优先于价格止损);或收盘跌回 ~$11.5 下方(突破失败/向 NAV 回归),动量多头逻辑作废。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 CCXI.US
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 CCXI.US
| 收益状态 | +3.89% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-06-29 · 盘前首笔 · 06-29 16:01 北京 · @15.7476 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-06-30 · 常规开盘 · @16.4 |
| 毛收益 | +4.14% |
| 成本 | +0.26% |
| 净收益 | +3.89% |
| 计入收益 | +3.89% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-06-29 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 13:51
研究档案
关键理由
- 人形机器人主题正热 + 真实商业化基本面($300M+ Digit v5 多年订单、GXO/Schaeffler/Toyota/Amazon 实客、NVDA/Amazon/Foxconn/SoftBank 投资人),首家美股纯人形标的有稀缺性,动量上周五再加速 +11.4%(6x 量),方向偏多。
- 但这是 3 天前(6/24)就已官宣并被广泛报道的旧催化,本信号只是一条零增量的散户推文(作者自称'周末再研究'),事件 edge 基本已 price-in(5 日 +34.5%、站上 52 周高)。
- 因此只做小仓动量参与:用不追高的限价单(仅在平开/低开成交,避开情绪 gap),小仓表达'方向对但入场偏贵+信号陈旧'的不确定。
主要风险
- 并购前 SPAC 现价较 ~$10 NAV 溢价约 38%,历史基准是热情退潮即向 NAV 回归(下方 ~$11.8 才到我的止损,~$10 才到 NAV);叠加近期日波动已达 11–15%,窄止损会被噪音打掉。
- 交易在散户 FOMO 阶段、52 周高位接力,且交割要到 ~9 月(3 个月),期间有 SPAC 延期/告吹与股东/监管审批风险(推文本人也提示)。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,058 字
I'm actually excited for the United States gets its first pure play Humanoid public company!
At a personally compelling valuation like Unitree's $6.5B (they're IPOing at $2.5B)
That I personally invested in Agility Robotics. Couple days ago when they first announced it.
$CCXI is the current name -> ticker change $AGLT on IPO
It's IPOing ~September per news sources, so around 3M from now, so a lot of waiting time, but less so than $WLAC / $BRUN.
As a TLDR rundown of what I've found so far + my thoughts:
It's a very commercializable humanoid (eg. warehouses, delivery, etc), compared to others like Figure (~$49B) that are general purpose.
And I personally heavily favor application-specific ones for workforce automation, that can step-function into becoming general purpose.
IPO valuation is ~$2.5B, but since it's trading as a holding company now and is up a decent amount, it's roughly ~$4.4B pro forma last I checked.
In terms of dilution, there's a 180 day lockup period, which is a very green flag for SPAC structures.
In terms of fundamentals:
- "Agility also says it has $300M+ of multi-year Digit v5 orders and a pipeline of 30+ customers"
- "65,000+ operating hours"
- GXO, Schaeffler, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, and Mercado Libre as external customers, with Amazon and others testing it
So it’s definitely not vaporware/promises, and is actually commercializable.
Their investor list includes:
$NVDA, Foxconn, $AMZN, Softbank + others.
As for warnings: current BOM is ~$125k+ since they claim 75% of components are sourced from US, but they're trying to get that down to $50K.
So there is US scarcity, compared to Optimus where large part of BOM is China suppliers.
There's also a chance the SPAC gets canceled + filings get delayed past Nov.
That being said I'm just sharing the IPO news and personal thoughts. Probably going to do more research this weekend, but I'm very excited.
It kinda feels like ChatGPT when it first got announced (infancy), but the technology scaled up really fast over 2-3 years.
At a personally compelling valuation like Unitree's $6.5B (they're IPOing at $2.5B)
That I personally invested in Agility Robotics. Couple days ago when they first announced it.
$CCXI is the current name -> ticker change $AGLT on IPO
It's IPOing ~September per news sources, so around 3M from now, so a lot of waiting time, but less so than $WLAC / $BRUN.
As a TLDR rundown of what I've found so far + my thoughts:
It's a very commercializable humanoid (eg. warehouses, delivery, etc), compared to others like Figure (~$49B) that are general purpose.
And I personally heavily favor application-specific ones for workforce automation, that can step-function into becoming general purpose.
IPO valuation is ~$2.5B, but since it's trading as a holding company now and is up a decent amount, it's roughly ~$4.4B pro forma last I checked.
In terms of dilution, there's a 180 day lockup period, which is a very green flag for SPAC structures.
In terms of fundamentals:
- "Agility also says it has $300M+ of multi-year Digit v5 orders and a pipeline of 30+ customers"
- "65,000+ operating hours"
- GXO, Schaeffler, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, and Mercado Libre as external customers, with Amazon and others testing it
So it’s definitely not vaporware/promises, and is actually commercializable.
Their investor list includes:
$NVDA, Foxconn, $AMZN, Softbank + others.
As for warnings: current BOM is ~$125k+ since they claim 75% of components are sourced from US, but they're trying to get that down to $50K.
So there is US scarcity, compared to Optimus where large part of BOM is China suppliers.
There's also a chance the SPAC gets canceled + filings get delayed past Nov.
That being said I'm just sharing the IPO news and personal thoughts. Probably going to do more research this weekend, but I'm very excited.
It kinda feels like ChatGPT when it first got announced (infancy), but the technology scaled up really fast over 2-3 years.
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