🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘观望把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-27 20:49:09时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-27 20:51:05·⚡ 决策 06-29 13:50:02 +1d16h·120.2 天前
Twitter清单帖:MLCC上游瓶颈+中国铟出口管制投机推演(7只标的)
这是一条事后投机式清单帖:真实主题(中国~6/19收紧铟出口审查)已被多家媒体报道约10天、作者自承'还在猜下一步',无新增催化,名单内标的当下都没有可交易的edge。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Just some random notes : The upstream MLCC bottleneck stack looks like this: MLCC-grade BaTiO₃ / dielectric powder - Sa…
观望 AXTI.US
主题中心标的但当下不可做多:已就出口管制题材从$1.85冲到$143再崩(逆势接飞刀),且中国管制对其在华InP生产是净拖累、方向判不清;只观察,等正式铟管制公告+价格企稳。更干净的升级受益是非中国铟产商而非AXTI。
不做 6981.JP
¥19.4万亿超大盘,AI-MLCC题材近13周已翻三倍(充分price-in)、现回落-13%/5日;铟非其核心瓶颈;一条投机式清单帖推不动此体量,无edge。
不做 4063.JP
¥12.7万亿超大盘,推文仅作为稀土掺杂剂供应方被顺带提及,敞口边际、无具体催化,且近期走弱(-12%/20日),无理由出手。
不做 TI.US
仅作为'misc PMIC'罗列、无任何论点;大盘股,与铟/MLCC瓶颈仅边际相关,本信号无催化,不交易。
不做 ADI.US
同TI:清单式PMIC罗列、无逻辑,大盘股,无可交易催化。
不做 NXP.US
同TI:被顺带列为PMIC,无具体受益逻辑,大盘股,无催化,不交易。
另有 1 腿,见展开详情。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
其余 1 腿
不做 MPS.US
同TI:清单式PMIC罗列、无论点,无可交易催化,不出手。
研究档案
关键理由
- 这是一条事后投机式清单帖:真实主题(中国~6/19收紧铟出口审查)已被多家媒体报道约10天、作者自承'还在猜下一步',无新增催化,名单内标的当下都没有可交易的edge。
- 若中国把'审查趋严'升级为正式铟金属出口管制(沿用镓/锗/锑/InP的剧本),真正干净的多头是非中国精炼铟产商+囤货方(住友金属矿山/高丽锌/Dowa/Teck),而非清单里的大盘股或AXTI——但政策尚未落地,只能等。
- 名单内标的要么已price-in(Murata 13周翻三倍、现回落),要么是逆势接飞刀(AXTI -39%/20日、距高-51%),要么只是'misc PMIC'式罗列无逻辑,均不构成现在出手的理由。
主要风险
- 若中国突然落地正式铟出口管制,非中国铟产商可能跳空——空仓会错过,但错过的也不是清单里这7只(它们不是正确载体)。
- AXTI方向本身两面性强:中国管制既伤其在华InP衬底出口(利空),又可能因供给稀缺支撑衬底价值(利多),净方向判不清。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,701 字
Just some random notes :
The upstream MLCC bottleneck stack looks like this:
MLCC-grade BaTiO₃ / dielectric powder
- Sakai Chemical (40%), Nippon Chemica, Fuji Titanium / MF Material, Sinocera
kinda important too:
high purity Ni powder and Ni internal-electrode paste
- Shoei Chemical, JFE Mineral, Toho Titanium, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Daiken Chemical
Other:
Dy/Y/Ho/Gd rare-earth dopants and high-purity oxide additives
- Solvay (purity oxide additives/dopants), Shin‑Etsu, Mitsui Mining, Lynas Rare Earths, etc.
misc:
silicon capacitors- AP memory, SEMCO, murata just looking into them vs. mlcc
PMICs (TI, Infineon, Renesas, Analog Devices, MPS, ON Semi, NXP)
BMCs - Aspeed: ~$18.5B MC: BMCs. around 70% global BMC share (very interesting)
Then China indium metal export controls kinda like Wf6 if anything goes down:
- InGaAs, InAs, InSb, InGaP, AlInGaP, InGaN, infrared detectors, LEDs, VCSELs, CPV, sensors, epitaxy source materials, and MOCVD precursors.
Non-China refined indium producers: Korea Zinc/Young Poong, DOWA/Mitsui/JX/Sumitomo Japan type companies, Teck obvious just substitute trade
Stockpile suppliers: eg. companies sitting on a bunch, kinda like RPI hoarding memory then benefiting later on
-ITO substitutes: (antimony tin oxide, carbon nanotubes, PEDOT conductive polymers, silver/copper nanowires, graphene, and zinc oxide nanopowder)?
cause Indium Tin Oxide is largest volume use of indium.
so smartphone, TV, and automotive display manufacturing might have troubles lol.
Already covered China export controls quite a bit with InP substrates and $AXTI, I'm just trying to guess what happens with indium metal export controls next.
Idk yet still looking
The upstream MLCC bottleneck stack looks like this:
MLCC-grade BaTiO₃ / dielectric powder
- Sakai Chemical (40%), Nippon Chemica, Fuji Titanium / MF Material, Sinocera
kinda important too:
high purity Ni powder and Ni internal-electrode paste
- Shoei Chemical, JFE Mineral, Toho Titanium, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Daiken Chemical
Other:
Dy/Y/Ho/Gd rare-earth dopants and high-purity oxide additives
- Solvay (purity oxide additives/dopants), Shin‑Etsu, Mitsui Mining, Lynas Rare Earths, etc.
misc:
silicon capacitors- AP memory, SEMCO, murata just looking into them vs. mlcc
PMICs (TI, Infineon, Renesas, Analog Devices, MPS, ON Semi, NXP)
BMCs - Aspeed: ~$18.5B MC: BMCs. around 70% global BMC share (very interesting)
Then China indium metal export controls kinda like Wf6 if anything goes down:
- InGaAs, InAs, InSb, InGaP, AlInGaP, InGaN, infrared detectors, LEDs, VCSELs, CPV, sensors, epitaxy source materials, and MOCVD precursors.
Non-China refined indium producers: Korea Zinc/Young Poong, DOWA/Mitsui/JX/Sumitomo Japan type companies, Teck obvious just substitute trade
Stockpile suppliers: eg. companies sitting on a bunch, kinda like RPI hoarding memory then benefiting later on
-ITO substitutes: (antimony tin oxide, carbon nanotubes, PEDOT conductive polymers, silver/copper nanowires, graphene, and zinc oxide nanopowder)?
cause Indium Tin Oxide is largest volume use of indium.
so smartphone, TV, and automotive display manufacturing might have troubles lol.
Already covered China export controls quite a bit with InP substrates and $AXTI, I'm just trying to guess what happens with indium metal export controls next.
Idk yet still looking
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