🐦 推特JukanV3 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:A股▲ 赚 +8.90% · 已结算把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-28 08:36:33时区推断·⟳ 抓取 14:11:42回填·⚡ 决策 06-29 15:20:01·119.9 天前
Jukan 看多中国半导体国产化(CXMT IPO 在即),点名 ACMR/北方华创做多、CRUS/Apple 供应链做空
主题真实且有近端硬催化:长鑫科技(CXMT)科创板 IPO 已获 SSE 核准、募资约 295 亿、预计 7-8 月挂牌(估值机构给 3-4 万亿),打新资金回流国产化设备股的逻辑成立——但这是已知公开信息,非本推文新增
📄 原文Jukan@jukan05↗ 原文
Potential attractive investment opportunities for 2H26 — I still think they are likely to be Chinese semiconductor loca…
▲ 赚 +8.90%入场 06-29 开盘 @813.29 → 离场 06-30 开盘 @889.19
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑主题真实且有近端硬催化:长鑫科技(CXMT)科创板 IPO 已获 SSE 核准、募资约 295 亿、预计 7-8 月挂牌(估值机构给 3-4 万亿),打新资金回流国产化设备股的逻辑成立——但这是已知公开信息,非本推文新增
怎么买 回调买入 回落到 808 才买、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +10%(半仓)/+20%(清仓) · 止损 -8% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 CXMT IPO 推迟/取消,或板块放量见顶、跌破回调区不企稳;基本面/主题证伪优先于价格止损
观望 688082.SH
被点名标的最直接的 A 股,但最极端:20日+69.76%、13周→260 抛物线、今日已+7.93%、PE 164;主题成立但现价追高 R/R 极差,等明显回调再说
观望 ACMR.US
被点名的美股标的,但近52周高(13周+126%)、近5日-4.89%回落,美股当前闭市尚未对周末推文反应;价值主要来自更极端的盛美;等回调/确认再考虑,现不追
观望 CRUS.US
做空腿:'果链脱苹果转AI'为软叙事而非硬催化,不满足做空红线;且已20日-16%在下跌,fade已跌之物属弱理由;借券亦未确认。仅记录,待出现硬利空(如苹果砍单/指引下修)再评估
不做 AAPL.US
做空 4.17 万亿巨头、仅凭'供应商想要 AI 敞口'的结构性软逻辑,无任何近端催化、今日还+2.51%,完全不满足做空红线,不可执行
不做 A25101.SH
CXMT(长鑫科技)IPO 已过会、预计7-8月挂牌,此为上市前占位代码,尚无二级市场价、当前无法交易;真正的玩法是挂牌后打新/上市首日,现在做不了
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 002371.SZ
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 002371.SZ
| 收益状态 | +8.90% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-06-29 · 开盘 · @813.293 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-06-30 · 开盘 · @889.194 |
| 毛收益 | +9.33% |
| 成本 | +0.43% |
| 净收益 | +8.90% |
| 计入收益 | +8.90% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-06-29 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 13:51
研究档案
关键理由
- 主题真实且有近端硬催化:长鑫科技(CXMT)科创板 IPO 已获 SSE 核准、募资约 295 亿、预计 7-8 月挂牌(估值机构给 3-4 万亿),打新资金回流国产化设备股的逻辑成立——但这是已知公开信息,非本推文新增
- 国产化设备龙头中,北方华创(002371.SZ)质地最优、最具流动性、上行最稳(20日+23%/13周→168、波动仅3.27%),是表达残余看多最稳的载体,但只在回调时低吸、不追 52 周高
- 盛美上海/北方华创周一已大涨(盛美+7.93%、北方+5.76%)且 20 日累计涨幅巨大,本推文为迟到的清单帖、对已拥挤标的无新增 edge,现价追高 R/R 差
主要风险
- 标的已大涨且'融资客重押'高度拥挤,IPO 挂牌日易 sell-the-news(参考 SMIC 2020 上市后半导体板块见顶回调);若 IPO 推迟或情绪退潮,高位概念股回撤快
- 做空腿(CRUS/AAPL)理由太弱——'果链想脱离苹果、转 AI 敞口'是软叙事而非硬催化,且 CRUS 已 20 日跌 16%、AAPL 为 4.17 万亿巨头,均不满足做空红线,不可执行
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,047 字
Potential attractive investment opportunities for 2H26 —
I still think they are likely to be Chinese semiconductor localization names.
A few days ago, I had meetings with Chinese sell-side analysts, and they said CXMT’s market cap immediately after IPO could be at least RMB 5 trillion.
It seems that many Western investors are underestimating the investment frenzy around CXMT within China. I was also surprised when I first heard the RMB 5 trillion number, but I don’t think it is completely unreasonable.
Most of the capital raised through CXMT’s IPO will likely flow into Chinese semiconductor localization stocks.
Names like ACMR and NAURA look promising.
I also think shorting the Apple supply chain could be an interesting idea… but there are not many Apple supply chain names with low AI exposure.
Maybe CRUS is one of the few?
But isn’t that itself a bearish point on Apple? If the Apple business were truly strong and attractive, why are so many Apple vendors trying to move away from Apple exposure and gain AI exposure instead?
I still think they are likely to be Chinese semiconductor localization names.
A few days ago, I had meetings with Chinese sell-side analysts, and they said CXMT’s market cap immediately after IPO could be at least RMB 5 trillion.
It seems that many Western investors are underestimating the investment frenzy around CXMT within China. I was also surprised when I first heard the RMB 5 trillion number, but I don’t think it is completely unreasonable.
Most of the capital raised through CXMT’s IPO will likely flow into Chinese semiconductor localization stocks.
Names like ACMR and NAURA look promising.
I also think shorting the Apple supply chain could be an interesting idea… but there are not many Apple supply chain names with low AI exposure.
Maybe CRUS is one of the few?
But isn’t that itself a bearish point on Apple? If the Apple business were truly strong and attractive, why are so many Apple vendors trying to move away from Apple exposure and gain AI exposure instead?
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