🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-28 17:32:04时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-28 17:34:15·⚡ 决策 06-29 13:45:05 +20h10m·120.1 天前
KOL主题随笔:汽车零部件厂(舍弗勒/纳博/三花)是人形机器人供应链好标的,但催化在2027后
人形机器人+AI汽车是真实长期主题,作者点名舍弗勒(轴承/执行器/电力电子,称占人形BOM约50%)、纳博6268(关节)、三花智控(TSLA Optimus热管理/执行器)为受益方,逻辑成立
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players. ~ €7.47B MC auto player. - but also working with 45…
不做 TSLA.US
$1.43万亿巨头,推文仅把TSLA作为Optimus下游制造方顺带提及,一条主题随笔对其零edge;无任何TSLA特定催化,纯噪音
观望 002050.SZ
三花是真实Optimus供应商、主题成立,但本推文未带来新催化(作者自述1%营收/2027后);且股价近5日-9.27%、最后一日-5.6%处回调下行,做多无触发且逆势接飞刀。等人形真实催化(Optimus量产订单/供应商正式确认)+盘面企稳再由新决策接手
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-06-28 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗
关键理由
- 人形机器人+AI汽车是真实长期主题,作者点名舍弗勒(轴承/执行器/电力电子,称占人形BOM约50%)、纳博6268(关节)、三花智控(TSLA Optimus热管理/执行器)为受益方,逻辑成立
- 但作者本人明确把它定性为『2027年后』催化、当前仅占各公司约1%营收、且需先出现下游『ChatGPT/Anthropic级』人形龙头——即催化尚未发生
- 当前市场焦点在memory/MLCC等近端瓶颈(作者自述),该主题缺乏离散催化,无可交易edge
主要风险
- 人形机器人主题随时可能因某条真实催化(Optimus量产订单/供应商确认/大厂背书)突然发酵,踏空风险存在——故对三花保持WATCH而非彻底无视
- 三花是真实Optimus供应商,若错把其当作纯噪音而它先于推文已在主题资金里,可能低估其弹性;但当前其处-9%/5日的回调下行,做多接飞刀风险更大
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,219 字
Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players.
~ €7.47B MC auto player.
- but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher)
- covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics.
-ests. They can be roughly 50% BOM of a humanoid
- targeting 10% market share of that.
But only projecting a few hundred million revenue by 2030 (extremely sandbagged) if we’re using Elon’s projections for the market.
Then’s theres auto players like Nabtesco (6268) for joints. And then Sanhua in China for $TSLA Optimus.
Many of them are trade at lower valuations from drag from auto.
But humanoids + AI Auto (TSM chairman cited this as a growth vector) should be a good catalyst past 2027 for automotive players.
IMO there just needs to be a ChatGPT/Anthropic breakout downstream leader first for humanoids.
That brings up the entire ecosystem that has robotics exposure.
But as of now it’s probably like 1% of many of their overall revenue figures, and markets are focusing on immediate upside from bottlenecks like memory or MLCC.
I’m sure we’ll see some random Toto-HBM type surprise as different humanoid architecture evolve.
~ €7.47B MC auto player.
- but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher)
- covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics.
-ests. They can be roughly 50% BOM of a humanoid
- targeting 10% market share of that.
But only projecting a few hundred million revenue by 2030 (extremely sandbagged) if we’re using Elon’s projections for the market.
Then’s theres auto players like Nabtesco (6268) for joints. And then Sanhua in China for $TSLA Optimus.
Many of them are trade at lower valuations from drag from auto.
But humanoids + AI Auto (TSM chairman cited this as a growth vector) should be a good catalyst past 2027 for automotive players.
IMO there just needs to be a ChatGPT/Anthropic breakout downstream leader first for humanoids.
That brings up the entire ecosystem that has robotics exposure.
But as of now it’s probably like 1% of many of their overall revenue figures, and markets are focusing on immediate upside from bottlenecks like memory or MLCC.
I’m sure we’ll see some random Toto-HBM type surprise as different humanoid architecture evolve.
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