🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 14:57:45时区推断·⟳ 抓取 14:58:21·⚡ 决策 06-29 15:14:30 +16m09s·120.0 天前
POET AGM 事后解读推文:重申激光短缺/Lumilens 5年5亿美元/10x扩产,但作者不持仓且承认客户可信度存疑
这是 6/26 AGM 的事后解读推文(作者明言『I don't own Poet』),非新催化:激光短缺/光学瓶颈/Lumilens 5年5亿美元/$830M现金/H2 2026放量/10x扩产均为已披露旧信息。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the m…
不做 POET.US
非新催化的偏多解读推文(作者不持仓),叠加 POET 抛物线见顶后连跌5日(-22%/5d、-29%/20d)、Marvell 取消订单、$400M 深套摊薄、集体诉讼——做多=接飞刀无 edge;做空不满足红线(无新利空催化、置信不高、short_available_volume 未确认)。属『已 price-in/无 edge』+『接飞刀』,两边都不出手。
不做 LITE.US
推文仅引用其CEO『激光短缺至2028』的既有旧观点,对 LITE 无新增量信息,无 edge;健康大盘股但当下缺乏可交易催化。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
关键理由
- 这是 6/26 AGM 的事后解读推文(作者明言『I don't own Poet』),非新催化:激光短缺/光学瓶颈/Lumilens 5年5亿美元/$830M现金/H2 2026放量/10x扩产均为已披露旧信息。
- POET 已是抛物线见顶后的下跌中继:13周轨迹 100→337→198,近5日-22%、近20日-29%、连跌5日;叠加 Marvell 取消订单、$400M 摊薄增发(定价$21、认股权$26.25,现价仅$9.44深套)、集体诉讼——多头追入=接飞刀。
- 推文偏多但市场无视,作者本人也承认 POET 缺具名 hyperscaler 客户、可信度逊于 AAOI;做多无 edge,做空不满足红线(无新利空催化+可借量未确认),两边都不该出手。
主要风险
- POET 是高波动散户票,深度超跌+大量在外认股权可能触发逼空式反弹,贸然做空风险更大(enable_short_sell=true 但 short_available_volume 未返回)。
- 若 Lumilens/新客户 NRE 真进入放量,基本面或反转——但需公司侧硬确认,目前仅为推文投影,不足以建多头。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,624 字
Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets:
- "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years"
$LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now.
- NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source.
This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp.
- Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years.
Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT)
- $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals).
- "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components."
Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks.
- "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year."
Just production timelines H2.
In terms of $POET volumes:
- existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year
- projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month
- roughly 10x capacity expansion
I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive.
However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable.
But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.
- "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years"
$LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now.
- NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source.
This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp.
- Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years.
Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT)
- $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals).
- "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components."
Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks.
- "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year."
Just production timelines H2.
In terms of $POET volumes:
- existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year
- projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month
- roughly 10x capacity expansion
I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive.
However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable.
But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.
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