🐦 推特JukanV3 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 16:05:28时区推断·⟳ 抓取 16:14:47·⚡ 决策 06-29 16:27:22 +12m35s·120.0 天前
KIS评论路透CXMT-苹果LTA报道：苹果难买CXMT内存、DRAM供给依旧紧张（重申既有共识，非新催化）
信号本质=韩资券商对一则路透报道的二手评论(推特转述),无新合同/新数字/新指引,只是重申『DRAM供给紧、苹果难买CXMT』的既有共识
📄 原文Jukan@jukan05↗ 原文
KIS’ comment on Reuters’ report regarding CXMT’s LTA: “For several reasons, it does not seem easy for Apple to purchase…
不做 AAPL.US
信号是关于DRAM供给的行业评论,对$4.17万亿市值的苹果属无关紧要的采购细节,不构成股价催化、方向与量级都判不出→不做。
不做 MU.US
DRAM紧缺已被极度price-in(13周翻三倍、20日+22.6%、约12倍于52周低、$1.28万亿市值);本信号仅为推特转述的分析师重申共识,无新edge,顶部追多负EV→不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 信号本质=韩资券商对一则路透报道的二手评论(推特转述),无新合同/新数字/新指引,只是重申『DRAM供给紧、苹果难买CXMT』的既有共识
- 对AAPL($4.17万亿市值)而言内存采购口径是无关紧要的细枝末节,不构成股价催化,方向与量级都判不出
- 对真正受益方美光MU:DRAM紧缺已被极度price-in(13周指数化100→317翻三倍、近20日+22.6%、距52周低约12倍、日波动8.2%、昨日刚-6.7%),此处追多=抛物线顶部接刀、负EV
主要风险
- 若路透原报道实为CXMT正式签下苹果LTA(供给/竞争利空内存厂),则方向反转,但CXMT未上市、且MU/Hynix估值已极度透支,仍非干净可交易标的
- 未联网核实路透原报道首发时间;但无论新旧,AAPL免疫、MU已充分定价,均不改AVOID结论
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,063 字
KIS’ comment on Reuters’ report regarding CXMT’s LTA:
“For several reasons, it does not seem easy for Apple to purchase DRAM from CXMT. Regardless of whether the U.S. government removes CXMT from the Entity List, it now seems more likely that the Chinese government could restrict CXMT DRAM from being supplied to foreign companies.
From China’s perspective, most of CXMT’s capacity has been shifted from LPDDR to DDR in order to support domestic data centers. As a result, Chinese smartphone makers are suffering from an even more severe DRAM shortage. Given this situation, it seems highly unlikely that scarce CXMT DRAM would be prioritized for Apple rather than domestic smartphone companies.
From an overall memory supply perspective, the article above also shows that CXMT is not currently creating additional supply pressure. The top three DRAM makers are already short of supply even in supporting U.S. data centers, while CXMT’s capacity is insufficient even to support Chinese companies that cannot secure enough DRAM from those top three suppliers.”
“For several reasons, it does not seem easy for Apple to purchase DRAM from CXMT. Regardless of whether the U.S. government removes CXMT from the Entity List, it now seems more likely that the Chinese government could restrict CXMT DRAM from being supplied to foreign companies.
From China’s perspective, most of CXMT’s capacity has been shifted from LPDDR to DDR in order to support domestic data centers. As a result, Chinese smartphone makers are suffering from an even more severe DRAM shortage. Given this situation, it seems highly unlikely that scarce CXMT DRAM would be prioritized for Apple rather than domestic smartphone companies.
From an overall memory supply perspective, the article above also shows that CXMT is not currently creating additional supply pressure. The top three DRAM makers are already short of supply even in supporting U.S. data centers, while CXMT’s capacity is insufficient even to support Chinese companies that cannot secure enough DRAM from those top three suppliers.”
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