🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 01:09:49时区推断·⟳ 抓取 01:14:36·⚡ 决策 07-02 01:17:26 +2m50s·117.7 天前
Serenity转发Agility Robotics演示页，称其美国供应链和低BOM目标利好CCXI
这条信号本质是股东个人解读Agility Robotics旧演示材料，核心信息是美国零部件占比、RoboFab产能和未来BOM目标，并非新订单、正式上市进展或公司一手公告。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Just dropping these 3 slides from Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) presentations. For the US robotic program doomposters: 1.…
不做 CCXI（Agility Robotics相关SPAC）（CCXI.US）
社媒股东观点和演示页摘录不足以构成新催化，且Agility量产BOM与上市进度仍未被本条信号正式确认。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-01 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这条信号本质是股东个人解读Agility Robotics旧演示材料，核心信息是美国零部件占比、RoboFab产能和未来BOM目标，并非新订单、正式上市进展或公司一手公告。
- 正文明确带有个人持仓观点和NFA提示，且“低于3万美元BOM”和“9月上市”仍属于目标或预期，缺少可回测的确定性催化。
- 当前组合空仓，面对小盘SPAC/拟上市叙事股，单条社媒材料解读不足以形成正期望入场。
主要风险
- 若后续Agility Robotics或CCXI发布正式合并/上市进展、量产成本确认或大客户订单，事件性质会显著改变。
- 机器人主题股可能被社媒情绪短线拉动，但这属于交易拥挤和情绪风险，不是基本面催化。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,773 字
Just dropping these 3 slides from Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) presentations.
For the US robotic program doomposters:
1. “75% of parts” - sourced from the USA
2. Just eyeballing the graph, looks like <$30k BOM mass production.
People were just looking at the ~$145K cost.
3. 10,000 RoboFab capacity, and they build in Salem/Pittsburgh/Fremont (USA).
So looks like majority US supply chains with targets of <$30K mass production
It does help they’re backed by $AMZN / SoftBank / Foxconn / $NVDA as investors to get this done.
Just personal thoughts as a shareholder in $CCXI (NFA):
My personal biggest fear were US humanoid leaders like $TSLA were just building out their entire supply chains in China.
So US robotics could just be export controlled/halted down the road.
eg. South China Morning Post: ‘Optimus chain’: Chinese suppliers form the backbone of Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative and engaged with hundreds of Chinese component suppliers.
And that Western companies are not able to lower costs to a competitive level + are forced to use Chinese components.
I'm still not sure how they're going to do it but if Agility can achieve those mass production targets with that BOM cost in the USA/West.
It would be a great validation for Made in America US robotics programs.
IMO the top 5 US humanoid programs right now in terms of commercialization potential are:
1. Tesla Optimus
2. Figure
3. Agility Robotics
4. Boston Dynamics (yeah KR parent)
5. Apptronik
Tesla is a $1T+ company. Figure is private and valued around ~$39B. Owning Boston Dynamics through Hyundai is a bit messy.
And I’d prefer not to invest in adversarial programs just as a personal preference.
So I’ve been personally excited for Agility to be listed as early as September.
For the US robotic program doomposters:
1. “75% of parts” - sourced from the USA
2. Just eyeballing the graph, looks like <$30k BOM mass production.
People were just looking at the ~$145K cost.
3. 10,000 RoboFab capacity, and they build in Salem/Pittsburgh/Fremont (USA).
So looks like majority US supply chains with targets of <$30K mass production
It does help they’re backed by $AMZN / SoftBank / Foxconn / $NVDA as investors to get this done.
Just personal thoughts as a shareholder in $CCXI (NFA):
My personal biggest fear were US humanoid leaders like $TSLA were just building out their entire supply chains in China.
So US robotics could just be export controlled/halted down the road.
eg. South China Morning Post: ‘Optimus chain’: Chinese suppliers form the backbone of Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative and engaged with hundreds of Chinese component suppliers.
And that Western companies are not able to lower costs to a competitive level + are forced to use Chinese components.
I'm still not sure how they're going to do it but if Agility can achieve those mass production targets with that BOM cost in the USA/West.
It would be a great validation for Made in America US robotics programs.
IMO the top 5 US humanoid programs right now in terms of commercialization potential are:
1. Tesla Optimus
2. Figure
3. Agility Robotics
4. Boston Dynamics (yeah KR parent)
5. Apptronik
Tesla is a $1T+ company. Figure is private and valued around ~$39B. Owning Boston Dynamics through Hyundai is a bit messy.
And I’d prefer not to invest in adversarial programs just as a personal preference.
So I’ve been personally excited for Agility to be listed as early as September.
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