🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 07-05 23:36:44时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07-05 23:42:48·⚡ 决策 07-06 00:20:03 +37m15s·114.0 天前
社媒汇总存储涨价与Micron日本扩产旧闻，缺少新的公司级可交易催化
帖子本质是把存储行业涨价预期、Samsung提价传闻、Micron广岛投资和券商观点做二次汇总，不是新的官方公告或单一可落地订单。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read throug…
不做 Micron Technology（MU.US）
核心广岛投资是2025年旧闻，存储涨价预期已在2026-07-03前后扩散，本帖没有新的公司级盈利增量或官方确认。
不做 Silicon Motion（SIMO.US）
SIMO只是NAND紧缺的二阶读-through，缺少新增订单、价格传导或收入占比量化证据，不能从清单帖直接形成正期望交易。
不做 Samsung Electronics（005930.KS）
Q3 DRAM提价为已传播两天的reported口径，且Samsung体量大，需要更明确的盈利上修或正式确认才足以触发交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- Nikkei经Reuters传播称Micron将投资约1.5万亿日元在日本广岛建设AI/HBM相关存储工厂，说明该扩产信息不是2026-07-05新消息。
- TrendForce报道Samsung拟在3Q26寻求最高约20%的DRAM涨价，属于行业媒体两天前已发布的供应链传闻。
- Wccftech已报道UBS将DRAM与NAND价格预测上修，相关数字在本帖前已进入公开传播。
- Serenity将多条存储行业信息整理成清单帖，但没有新增一手确认、公司公告或新的量化业绩指引。市场反应:事件发生在周末，美股、日股、韩股均不可连续成交。
关键理由
- 帖子本质是把存储行业涨价预期、Samsung提价传闻、Micron广岛投资和券商观点做二次汇总，不是新的官方公告或单一可落地订单。
- Micron 1.5万亿日元广岛投资最早在2025-11-29已由Nikkei/Reuters报道，内部KB也显示2025-12已有研报解读，不能作为2026-07-05的新催化。
- UBS上调DRAM/NAND价格预测与Samsung Q3提价传闻在2026-07-03已被多家媒体和社媒传播，当前信号没有提供新增金额、供应商确认或未定价的公司级业绩增量。
主要风险
- 存储上行周期本身仍可能推动MU、Samsung、Kioxia、Winbond等继续上涨，但这条信号不是足够新的入场触发点。
- 若后续出现厂商正式提价公告、实际合约价落地或公司上修指引，需要按新的事件重新评估。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2025-12-10 · 影响 weakens
内部KB显示Micron日本扩产早在2025-12已有研报解读，削弱作为新多头催化的有效性。
检索:Micron Hiroshima 1.5 trillion yen investment Disco Advantest Resonac Towa July 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-03 · 影响 weakens
Samsung提价仍是reported/plans口径，且已经在行业媒体扩散，不足以支持周末追多。
检索:Samsung 20% DRAM price hike Q3 2026 TrendForce DRAM contract prices 13 18 percent 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-25 · 影响 weakens
近期存在针对Samsung、SK hynix、Micron的DRAM反垄断/价格操纵诉讼报道，虽不否定涨价周期，但增加监管与叙事风险。
检索:DRAM price fixing lawsuit Samsung SK hynix Micron June 2026 原文 ↗
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(1 种)
- kb_search · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,313 字
Just some consolidated updates on memory:
- $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.
- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream.
- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond
- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.
- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.
- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.
Something to note:
Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.
But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.
I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...
I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.
- $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.
- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream.
- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond
- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.
- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.
- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.
Something to note:
Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.
But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.
I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...
I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.
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