🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 01:31:39时区推断·⟳ 抓取 01:31:50·⚡ 决策 07-11 01:33:36 +1m46s·108.7 天前
社媒转述 Rosenblatt 对光通信板块回调与空头回补的乐观看法，但缺少可验证公司级催化
这条信号本质是社媒转述券商/机构观点与空头仓位叙事，不是订单、业绩、监管或产品落地等可回测的公司级新事件。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: "Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for…
不做 Applied Optoelectronics（AAOI.US）
社媒转述机构观点和空头回补预期，不是可量化公司级催化，当前不做。
不做 Lumentum（LITE.US）
缺少 Lumentum 自身新增基本面事件，无法证明短周期正期望。
不做 Sivers Semiconductors（SIVEF.US）
正文只称报告读起来偏正面，但没有一手来源、量级和可回测触发点。
不做 Coherent（COHR.US）
光通信主题相关性不足以替代公司级催化，单靠空头回补叙事不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-10 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这条信号本质是社媒转述券商/机构观点与空头仓位叙事，不是订单、业绩、监管或产品落地等可回测的公司级新事件。
- 正文只表达“机构可能晚些回补、2027 年看好 CPO 放量”的预期，缺少当前可量化收入、利润或订单增量。
- CPO 与光通信方向虽有主题相关性，但该信号无法证明某一标的在短周期内出现未定价的基本面变化。
主要风险
- 若 Rosenblatt 原始报告包含具体上调、订单验证或客户确认，本条社媒摘要没有提供足够信息承接交易。
- 光通信板块本身波动较大，单纯基于空头回补预期追多容易落入情绪交易。
原文全文
展开原文 · 669 字
Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE:
"Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares.
"We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."
Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity.
Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward.
I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.
"Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares.
"We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."
Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity.
Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward.
I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.
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