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北京时间·🕒 发布 18:12:33时区推断·⟳ 抓取 18:12:57·⚡ 决策 07-12 18:14:04 +1m07s·106.9 天前
社交账号转述上月 IBK 关于 Boston Dynamics 供应链与人形机器人产能假设的研报摘要
这是一条对上月券商研报的二次摘要，不是新订单、官方产能指引、供应商确认或业绩变化。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these compan…
不做 Hwashin（010690.KS）
只是上月研报摘要中的供应链映射，缺少新订单、官方确认和短周期业绩增量，不构成可回测交易催化。
不做 LG Energy Solution（373220.KS）
电池供应链映射对公司体量过小且无新增合同金额，无法形成同向短线交易。
不做 Hyundai Autoever（307950.KS）
估值模型讨论不是新增基本面事件，缺少订单、收入占比或官方确认，暂不交易。
不做 Hyundai Mobis（012330.KS）
执行器和 Boston Dynamics 权益逻辑属于远期主题叙事，当前信号没有新增量产或产能确认，不能作为入场催化。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-12 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这是一条对上月券商研报的二次摘要，不是新订单、官方产能指引、供应商确认或业绩变化。
- 正文核心是供应链映射与远期 2028-2032 年销量模型，短周期内无法直接推导上市公司收入或利润增量。
- 虽提到 Hwashin、LG Energy Solution、Hyundai Autoever、Hyundai Mobis 等潜在链上公司，但缺少新鲜的一手催化和可量化当期订单。
主要风险
- 若后续 Boston Dynamics 或现代集团正式确认 Atlas 量产订单、供应份额或产能投资，需要重新评估。
- 社交清单帖可能带来主题关注，但缺少同向基本面 surprise，追主题容易变成迟到交易。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,077 字
So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month.
Just a summary:
IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers:
- Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs
- LG Energy (373220) / battery
- Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration
- Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators
As for humanoid volume ramps:
They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032.
Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps...
Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like:
- 15-20k 2028
- 40k-70k 2029
- 90k-140k for 2030
Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026.
In terms of competitive landscape they name:
- $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now)
- Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders.
- Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders.
They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis.
Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now.
Then from report assumptions:
- 31 actuators per Atlas
- $1K per actuator in 2028
- $134K Atlas ASP,
Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%.
Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots.
So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp.
I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.
Just a summary:
IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers:
- Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs
- LG Energy (373220) / battery
- Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration
- Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators
As for humanoid volume ramps:
They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032.
Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps...
Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like:
- 15-20k 2028
- 40k-70k 2029
- 90k-140k for 2030
Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026.
In terms of competitive landscape they name:
- $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now)
- Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders.
- Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders.
They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis.
Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now.
Then from report assumptions:
- 31 actuators per Atlas
- $1K per actuator in 2028
- $134K Atlas ASP,
Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%.
Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots.
So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp.
I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.
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