🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 7/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 07-14 22:35:50时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07-14 22:35:57·⚡ 决策 07-15 15:14:34 +16h38m·104.0 天前
Serenity转发Tower半导体与AAOI产能扩张公告，但两只美股已在公告日大幅反应
Tower半导体公告日本METI支持的300mm硅光、SiGe和先进封装扩产，并把2028年目标上调到36亿美元收入、12亿美元净利润，基本面方向偏利多。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese gove…
不做 Tower Semiconductor（TSEM.US）
官方利好真实但已在公告日大幅反应，且TSEM高开后回落；当前Serenity帖是二次传播，追多缺少新增edge，不做。
不做 Applied Optoelectronics（AAOI.US）
Pearland扩建开工是4月已披露产能规划的推进节点，公告日已涨约12%，没有新增订单或业绩量级确认，追高不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- Tower官方披露日本双轨扩产，Track One预计2027年四季度具备量产准备，并更新2028年36亿美元收入、12亿美元净利润目标。市场反应:TSEM.US在2026-07-14收涨约11.25%，盘中从271.5美元高开后回落至255.49美元收盘。
- AAOI官方披露Pearland园区开工，增加近40万平方英尺制造能力以扩产800G和1.6T光模块。市场反应:AAOI.US在2026-07-14收涨约12.18%。
- AAOI早在4月已披露Houston-area footprint扩至90万平方英尺，并计划到2027年底支持最高70万只/月800G和1.6T模块产能，本次只是开工推进。
- Serenity将TSEM和AAOI两条扩产公告整理成清单帖，传播层面晚于官方公告，不是首发信息。
关键理由
- Tower半导体公告日本METI支持的300mm硅光、SiGe和先进封装扩产，并把2028年目标上调到36亿美元收入、12亿美元净利润，基本面方向偏利多。
- AAOI公告Pearland园区约40万平方英尺扩建启动，用于800G/1.6T光模块产能，但该扩产框架在4月已披露为900,000平方英尺产能规划的一部分，新信息主要是开工节点。
- 两只股票在公告日已分别上涨约11%和12%，TSEM还出现高开后回落，当前信号更像KOL二次传播而非低扩散一手催化。
主要风险
- 不做的主要风险是AI光互连主线很强，后续若公司给出客户预付款、订单或产能利用率超预期，仍可能继续趋势上涨。
- AAOI扩产缺少本次新增订单或收入确认，且4月已披露700,000只/月800G和1.6T产能目标，追高容易买到旧闻兑现。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-05-14 · 影响 weakens
内部库已有5月14日复盘提到Tower业绩会披露2027年13亿美元硅光晶圆合同和2026年底硅光产能提升五倍，说明硅光成长叙事并非首次出现。
检索:Tower Semiconductor Japan expansion silicon photonics 2028 revenue target old news price reaction - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-04-17 · 影响 weakens
AAOI本次开工对应的产能规划4月已披露，边际新意弱于真正的新订单或新增客户确认。
检索:Applied Optoelectronics Pearland expansion 400000 800G 1.6T old announcement 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-07-15 · 影响 weakens
TSEM公告日高开271.5美元后收255.49美元，AAOI公告日收涨约12.18%；两者已对该具体催化有明显同向反应。
检索:stock_quote TSEM.US AAOI.US full
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(3 种)
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 864 字
Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI.
Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities.
Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e).
AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr.
The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier).
This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it.
Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.
Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities.
Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e).
AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr.
The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier).
This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it.
Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.
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