🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:54:42时区推断·⟳ 抓取 22:54:58·⚡ 决策 07-16 22:57:21 +2m23s·102.8 天前
网红大V发布Sivers CPO激光器产能爬坡测算清单帖
该信号是KOL基于Win Semi产能分配、良率和ASP假设推导的2028年远期毛利情景，不是订单、获客、量产、财报上修或公司正式指引。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% o…
不做 Sivers Semiconductors（SIVE.US）
不做：这是KOL清单帖和2028年远期情景测算，缺少公司一手新增订单、产能、客户或指引上修；社交影响力可能带来动量，但不满足可回测事件交易的基本面催化要求。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-16 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
消息传播链
- 高影响力KOL发布Sivers CPO产能与毛利情景测算，但不是公司公告、客户确认或订单披露。
关键理由
- 该信号是KOL基于Win Semi产能分配、良率和ASP假设推导的2028年远期毛利情景，不是订单、获客、量产、财报上修或公司正式指引。
- CPO产业链方向本身有中长期景气依据，但本条没有新增可核验的一阶催化，主要是把已知CPO叙事重新建模包装。
- 内部定量库显示CPO规模化出货更多锚在2027年后段，当前清单帖对2028年收入/毛利的推演时效太远，难以形成盘中事件交易。
主要风险
- Serenity账号影响力较高，短线可能带来社交资金冲击，但这属于喊单动量而非基本面事件，追高胜率不可验证。
- Sivers若后续发布正式产能、客户LTA、NASDAQ上市或订单金额，需作为新催化重新评估。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-16 · 影响 weakens
内部库未命中Sivers本身的正式新增订单或产能公告，更多命中为CPO产业链背景和其他公司研报。
检索:Sivers Semiconductors CPO laser Win Semi capacity Morgan Stanley Lumentum Coherent - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 影响 weakens
定量库支持CPO产业化方向，但显示Lumentum等CPO收入桥主要从2027年后段开始，弱化本条作为即时交易催化的强度。
检索:Sivers Semiconductors CPO laser revenue gross margin capacity Win Semi
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(4 种)
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,906 字
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others):
Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP):
Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly:
$205–307M of annual gross profit.
Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~:
3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028.
And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit)
Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024.
So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off.
I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM.
_
As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked.
Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript.
And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others...
Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed.
And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players .
Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason...
_
TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations.
I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing.
By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP):
Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly:
$205–307M of annual gross profit.
Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~:
3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028.
And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit)
Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024.
So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off.
I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM.
_
As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked.
Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript.
And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others...
Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed.
And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players .
Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason...
_
TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations.
I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing.
By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。