🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 2/10🔁 +1 同一事件
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:52:04时区推断·⟳ 抓取 22:52:14·⚡ 决策 07-17 22:53:31 +1m17s·101.8 天前
Serenity 发帖称 AI、CPO、机器人等成长股下跌主要受流动性和杠杆影响而非基本面变化
该帖是个人长期投资观点和持仓信念复述，没有披露订单、业绩、客户、产品或监管等新增可交易催化。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quart…
不做 Applied Optoelectronics（AAOI.US）
社交媒体长期 thesis 复述，没有新增订单、业绩或客户确认；方向虽偏多但缺乏可回测事件边界，不做。
不做 Sivers Semiconductors（SIVE.US）
仅为 CPO 主题持仓信念和 TAM 展望，未披露新增商业化进展或量级证据；不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-17 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 该帖是个人长期投资观点和持仓信念复述，没有披露订单、业绩、客户、产品或监管等新增可交易催化。
- 文中提到 AAOI、SIVE、NVDA、Agility、CPO、机器人等方向，但只是主题展望与市场下跌解释，无法形成短周期同向交易边界。
主要风险
- Serenity 账号影响力较高，可能带来短线情绪波动，但缺乏新增事实支撑，按纪律不把网红信念帖当作交易催化。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,400 字
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.
From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue end of H1 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.
Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026?
Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA.
If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028.
Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet?
With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped?
I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals.
It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently.
Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage.
In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do.
Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time.
So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes.
And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue end of H1 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.
Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026?
Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA.
If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028.
Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet?
With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped?
I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals.
It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently.
Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage.
In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do.
Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time.
So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes.
And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
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