🐦 推特Ming-Chi Kuo 郭明錤Codex · 实盘不做把握 4/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 00:47:17时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:47:35·⚡ 决策 07-18 00:48:57 +1m22s·101.6 天前
郭明錤称台积电 CoPoS/GCS 试产线成熟要到 2027 年下半年，当前供应链名单不等于量产入选
这是一条对台积电财报电话会表述的二次解读，核心增量只是 CoPoS/GCS 试产线成熟时间约为 2027 年下半年。
📄 原文Ming-Chi Kuo 郭明錤@mingchikuo↗ 原文
A few quick thoughts on what TSMC said about CoPoS during its Q2 2026 earnings call (screenshot from the transcript). T…
不做 台积电（TSM.TW）
仅为 CoPoS/GCS 技术路线和试产线时间线解读，且作者称市场大概率已有类似预期；对台积电这种超大市值主标的不构成市值级短线增量，不做。
不做 Ibiden（4062.JP）
未确认量产入选，且原文反而提示当前供应链公司未必最终入选；方向不够清晰，不做。
不做 群创（3481.TW）
仅被提及可能在后续财报讨论同一时间线，没有订单、客户资格或业绩量级增量；题材映射不够实，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-17 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这是一条对台积电财报电话会表述的二次解读，核心增量只是 CoPoS/GCS 试产线成熟时间约为 2027 年下半年。
- 原文明确称该时间线大概率已被市场预期，且当前 oS/GCS 供应链多数公司未必会成为最终量产供应商，难以形成同向做多。
- 若按负面理解，也只是提示题材供应链不确定性，不构成明确强看空催化，且未点名可执行做空标的。
主要风险
- 若后续台积电、Ibiden 或群创财报进一步确认具体量产供应商，可能形成新的单名催化。
- 玻璃基板/先进封装题材股若此前已被高度炒作，本条可能加剧分化，但当前信号本身不足以下单。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,906 字
A few quick thoughts on what TSMC said about CoPoS during its Q2 2026 earnings call (screenshot from the transcript). The devil is in the details:
1. The phrase "alternative to try to lower down the cost" refers to the glass carrier. That's the CoP part.
2. "Work with substrate vendor" refers to the glass core substrate (GCS). That's the oS part.
3. Pay close attention to this phrase: "takes about another 1 year to be mature." It refers to the pilot line mentioned earlier. For a new technology, a mature pilot line and a mature mass-production line are two completely different things.
4. When TSMC says the pilot line will mature in about a year, this fully validates my earlier prediction that "the 510x515mm format will be used for pre-mass-production simulation in 2H27." For oS/GCS, "mature" means being able to start simulating with the final 510x515mm glass format on the pilot line, instead of the current 250x250mm.
5. Following from point 4, most companies currently involved in the oS/GCS supply chain may not be among the suppliers ultimately selected for mass production (not to mention companies that are only part of the market narrative and have no actual involvement). This is important to keep in mind when looking for investment opportunities at this stage, especially among equipment and materials suppliers.
6. TSMC's answer was brief, but it covered both CoP and oS. It did not mention a glass interposer at all, consistent with my earlier point that CoPoS does not use one.
7. Compared with what TSMC shared at its Japan symposium in June, the only new information in the Q2 2026 earnings call was that the pilot line is expected to reach maturity in 2H27. That said, I think the market was probably already expecting something close to this timeline. Now that TSMC has mentioned it, Ibiden and Innolux may also discuss the same timeline in their upcoming earnings calls.
1. The phrase "alternative to try to lower down the cost" refers to the glass carrier. That's the CoP part.
2. "Work with substrate vendor" refers to the glass core substrate (GCS). That's the oS part.
3. Pay close attention to this phrase: "takes about another 1 year to be mature." It refers to the pilot line mentioned earlier. For a new technology, a mature pilot line and a mature mass-production line are two completely different things.
4. When TSMC says the pilot line will mature in about a year, this fully validates my earlier prediction that "the 510x515mm format will be used for pre-mass-production simulation in 2H27." For oS/GCS, "mature" means being able to start simulating with the final 510x515mm glass format on the pilot line, instead of the current 250x250mm.
5. Following from point 4, most companies currently involved in the oS/GCS supply chain may not be among the suppliers ultimately selected for mass production (not to mention companies that are only part of the market narrative and have no actual involvement). This is important to keep in mind when looking for investment opportunities at this stage, especially among equipment and materials suppliers.
6. TSMC's answer was brief, but it covered both CoP and oS. It did not mention a glass interposer at all, consistent with my earlier point that CoPoS does not use one.
7. Compared with what TSMC shared at its Japan symposium in June, the only new information in the Q2 2026 earnings call was that the pilot line is expected to reach maturity in 2H27. That said, I think the market was probably already expecting something close to this timeline. Now that TSMC has mentioned it, Ibiden and Innolux may also discuss the same timeline in their upcoming earnings calls.
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