🐦 推特JukanCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:29:53时区推断·⟳ 抓取 19:30:17·⚡ 决策 07-20 19:34:34 +4m17s·98.8 天前
摩根士丹利称AI驱动的存储短缺仍在加剧，二季度到三季度同口径价格至少上涨25%
摩根士丹利Joseph Moore转述数据中心采购联系人反馈，称DRAM/存储短缺未缓解、2Q到3Q同口径价格至少上涨25%，方向上利多存储原厂。
📄 原文Jukan@jukan05↗ 原文
Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore said that, after speaking with several purchasing contacts in the data center space last…
不做 美光科技（MU.US）
不做：摩根士丹利观点方向利多但属于存储涨价与AI内存短缺主线的再确认，内部库6月已有类似甚至更强涨价预期，且未给出美光公司级订单、指引上修或盈利增量；盘前追多edge不足。
不做 SK海力士（SKHY.US）
不做：SK海力士受益链条最直接，但HBM/DRAM短缺和长协涨价已是高度传播主线，本条不是新的公司级确认；若后续有正式盈利上修或大客户长协披露再重判。
不做 SanDisk（SNDK.US）
不做：NAND涨价方向利多SanDisk，但本条只提供行业价格和短缺口径，缺少SanDisk特定合同、出货或指引变化；近期高波动下用社交转述追开盘风险收益不佳。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 专家交流已称服务器端DRAM环比涨20%-25%、NAND涨30%-40%、AI与云需求推动价格持续走高，说明涨价主线此前已传播。
- 内部库已有2026年Q3/Q4 DRAM价格环比涨幅预计超40%和30%、NAND涨30%-40%的更强表述，本条25%涨价不是首次出现的核心信息。
- Jukan转述摩根士丹利Joseph Moore与数据中心采购联系人交流后的存储短缺观点，属于卖方观点的社交扩散而非公司公告。市场反应:信号时美股仍处盘前不可连续成交；行情工具显示相关标的上个交易日仍为高波动回撤状态。
关键理由
- 摩根士丹利Joseph Moore转述数据中心采购联系人反馈，称DRAM/存储短缺未缓解、2Q到3Q同口径价格至少上涨25%，方向上利多存储原厂。
- 但内部库6月中下旬已有多条专家交流和券商点评指出DRAM/NAND/HBM在2026年大幅涨价、长协锁量和短缺延续至2028，本条更像已交易主线的再确认而非首次增量。
- 美光科技（MU.US）、SK海力士（SKHY.US）和SanDisk（SNDK.US）近期波动极大且此前已多次被存储涨价叙事交易；本条未给出公司级订单、指引上修或盈利量化增量，难以形成开盘追多的正期望。
主要风险
- 若摩根士丹利正式上调行业盈利预测或目标价，可能把本条从叙事确认升级为可交易的预期上修催化。
- 存储股近期回撤较大，若盘前市场用强成交量重新确认涨价主线，可能出现情绪修复，但这属于价格确认而非本条本身的新基本面。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-06-17 至 2026-07-20 · 影响 weakens
找到多条更早的涨价与短缺讨论，说明本条不是低扩散的首次催化，削弱开盘追多edge。
检索:Micron SK Hynix SanDisk memory shortage DRAM NAND HBM 2026 Morgan Stanley Joseph Moore 25% prices shortage 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 日期 2026-03-12 至 2026-05-01 · 影响 weakens
定量库显示HBM/DRAM已被视为2026-2027 AI供应链并行约束，DRAM fab稼动率高于90%，短缺逻辑已是成熟主线而非新信息。
检索:HBM DRAM memory shortage 2026 Micron SK Hynix SanDisk pricing AI data center supply - 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-07-20 · 影响 weakens
三只存储股近期波动和回撤很大，SNDK近5日约-29%、MU近20日约-19%，但这更像高拥挤高波动主线回撤，不能单独作为追多催化。
检索:MU.US SKHY.US SNDK.US stock_quote full
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(5 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,178 字
Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore said that, after speaking with several purchasing contacts in the data center space last week, the intensity of the memory shortages shows no signs of abating. He added that prices appear to be up at least 25% on a like-for-like basis from 2Q to 3Q.
This is above both Morgan Stanley’s and third-party estimates.
Moore also noted that longer-term concerns that the memory shortage will intensify in 2027 and again in 2028 remain as strong as ever. Morgan Stanley added that there is not enough memory relative to AI requirements and that it does not see this situation changing.
Notable quotes:
“Cloud customers are paying premiums to the expected 2Q price for six-week expedites; do we think those customers are paying those premia to stockpile memory in a warehouse?”
“AI is consuming so much DRAM that there isn’t enough left over for other sectors, and everywhere we look, we see indications that it is a true bottleneck. It’s holding back PC builds and smartphone builds.”
“Memory is not just constrained by AI demand—memory is increasingly one of the major primary constraints on AI demand, along with space and power.”
$MU $SKHY $SNDK
This is above both Morgan Stanley’s and third-party estimates.
Moore also noted that longer-term concerns that the memory shortage will intensify in 2027 and again in 2028 remain as strong as ever. Morgan Stanley added that there is not enough memory relative to AI requirements and that it does not see this situation changing.
Notable quotes:
“Cloud customers are paying premiums to the expected 2Q price for six-week expedites; do we think those customers are paying those premia to stockpile memory in a warehouse?”
“AI is consuming so much DRAM that there isn’t enough left over for other sectors, and everywhere we look, we see indications that it is a true bottleneck. It’s holding back PC builds and smartphone builds.”
“Memory is not just constrained by AI demand—memory is increasingly one of the major primary constraints on AI demand, along with space and power.”
$MU $SKHY $SNDK
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