🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 17:14:20时区推断·⟳ 抓取 17:14:20·⚡ 决策 07-21 17:16:24 +2m04s·98.0 天前
Serenity转述Jefferies对AMD活动的CPO供应链预期，但当前尚无AMD或供应商确认
这条信号本质是活动前的条件清单：只有AMD在7月22-23日明确MI500采用CPO/optical UALink并点名光引擎或上游激光供应链，才可能形成交易催化。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note,…
不做 Silvaco（SIVE.US）
当前只是KOL转述的AMD活动前条件预期，正文明确称SIVE供应链关系尚无正式确认；需等AMD实际披露CPO路线和光引擎/上游供应商后再由新信号研判。
不做 AMD（AMD.US）
AMD本身尚未发布新增路线图或订单金额，且作为大市值主标的，活动前预期清单不足以构成可执行利好。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-21 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这条信号本质是活动前的条件清单：只有AMD在7月22-23日明确MI500采用CPO/optical UALink并点名光引擎或上游激光供应链，才可能形成交易催化。
- 正文明确写到SIVE是否进入AMD供应链仍需等待后续确认，目前只能通过GFS或Ayar Labs间接映射，缺乏可执行的公司级新增事实。
主要风险
- 若AMD活动正式确认CPO路线并点名Ayar Labs、GF SCALE或SIVE相关上游激光方案，需要按新信号重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,187 字
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23).
From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500.
If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition.
As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains.
Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations.
So if you're turning in:
- CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink.
- AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser.
Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here:
"We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine"
We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500.
If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition.
As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains.
Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations.
So if you're turning in:
- CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink.
- AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser.
Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here:
"We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine"
We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。