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北京时间·🕒 发布 19:04:29时区推断·⟳ 抓取 19:04:29·⚡ 决策 07-22 19:06:32 +2m03s·97.1 天前
菲利普莫里斯二季度业绩超预期但三季度EPS指引明显低于一致预期
二季度收入11.2亿美元级别披露应为112亿美元，调整EPS 2.20美元均高于市场预期，说明烟草与无烟业务当季经营仍强。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
PHILIP MORRIS $PM Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $11.2B (Est. $10.63B) 🟢; +10.4% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.20 (Est. $2.0…
不做 菲利普莫里斯（PM.US）
财报当季beat与三季度指引miss相互抵消，全年指引未明显上修；美股盘前日历内财报缺少单边正期望，不追多也不裸空。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 财报前市场已预期PM在7月22日盘前发布二季度业绩，收入和EPS预期已被市场跟踪。
- 公司IR页面列示2026年二季度业绩与电话会，确认本次为官方财报事件。
- Twitter在美股盘前汇总二季度beat、三季度EPS指引低于预期和全年指引基本持平等关键数字。市场反应:信号到达时美股仍处盘前，连续交易未开。
关键理由
- 二季度收入11.2亿美元级别披露应为112亿美元，调整EPS 2.20美元均高于市场预期，说明烟草与无烟业务当季经营仍强。
- 三季度调整EPS指引2.20-2.25美元低于2.43美元一致预期，抵消当季beat，事件方向不是单边利好。
- 全年调整EPS 8.26-8.41美元基本围绕8.38美元一致预期，经营现金流13.5亿美元级别披露应为135亿美元且低于13.88亿美元预期，缺少上修全年预期的短线追多弹性。
主要风险
- 盘前财报信号本身是日历内明牌，市场会在开盘前快速重定价，追多或做空都容易被开盘跳空吞掉edge。
- 若电话会强化ZYN/IQOS增长并淡化三季度汇率拖累，盘中可能反向修复。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-22 · 影响 weakens
反向证据是三季度EPS指引显著低于一致预期，全年EPS仅大致贴近一致预期，削弱追多。
检索:Philip Morris Q2 2026 earnings Q3 guidance consensus 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-22 · 影响 weakens
二季度收入、调整EPS、无烟业务收入和经营利润增速均强，空头催化不够纯粹。
检索:Philip Morris Q2 2026 earnings beat revenue EPS smoke-free growth 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,354 字
PHILIP MORRIS $PM Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $11.2B (Est. $10.63B) 🟢; +10.4% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.20 (Est. $2.05) 🟢; +15.2% YoY
🔹 Reported EPS: $1.80; -7.7% YoY, impacted by $511M non-cash RBH equity impairment
Q3 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.20-$2.25 (Est. $2.43) 🔴; includes 8 cents estimated unfavorable currency impact
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $8.26-$8.41 (Est. $8.38) 🟡; 9.5% to 11.5% YoY
🔹 Net Revenue Growth (Organic): 5% to 7%
🔹 Organic Operating Income Growth: 7% to 9%
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: ~21.5% (Est. 21.5%) 🟡
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: ~$13.5B (Est. $13.88B) 🔴
🔹 Capital Expenditures: $1.4B-$1.6B (Est. $1.52B) 🟡
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 International Smoke-Free: $3.9B; +14.2% YoY
🔹 International Combustibles: $6.5B; +9.8% YoY
🔹 U.S.: $0.9B; -0.7% YoY
Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Organic Net Revenue Growth: +7.6% YoY
🔹 Smoke-Free Share of Total Net Revenues: approximately 42%
🔹 Gross Profit: $7.7B; +11.5% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $4.5B; +22.0% YoY
Comments:
🔸 “We delivered outstanding results in the second quarter, driving net revenues to over $11 billion for the first time with excellent growth across all headline metrics.”
🔸 “With a robust first half under our belt, including continued momentum and strong results in our smoke-free business, we are well positioned to deliver on our full-year targets while investing for future growth.”
🔹 Revenue: $11.2B (Est. $10.63B) 🟢; +10.4% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.20 (Est. $2.05) 🟢; +15.2% YoY
🔹 Reported EPS: $1.80; -7.7% YoY, impacted by $511M non-cash RBH equity impairment
Q3 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.20-$2.25 (Est. $2.43) 🔴; includes 8 cents estimated unfavorable currency impact
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $8.26-$8.41 (Est. $8.38) 🟡; 9.5% to 11.5% YoY
🔹 Net Revenue Growth (Organic): 5% to 7%
🔹 Organic Operating Income Growth: 7% to 9%
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: ~21.5% (Est. 21.5%) 🟡
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: ~$13.5B (Est. $13.88B) 🔴
🔹 Capital Expenditures: $1.4B-$1.6B (Est. $1.52B) 🟡
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 International Smoke-Free: $3.9B; +14.2% YoY
🔹 International Combustibles: $6.5B; +9.8% YoY
🔹 U.S.: $0.9B; -0.7% YoY
Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Organic Net Revenue Growth: +7.6% YoY
🔹 Smoke-Free Share of Total Net Revenues: approximately 42%
🔹 Gross Profit: $7.7B; +11.5% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $4.5B; +22.0% YoY
Comments:
🔸 “We delivered outstanding results in the second quarter, driving net revenues to over $11 billion for the first time with excellent growth across all headline metrics.”
🔸 “With a robust first half under our belt, including continued momentum and strong results in our smoke-free business, we are well positioned to deliver on our full-year targets while investing for future growth.”
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