🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 08:11:40时区推断·⟳ 抓取 08:11:40·⚡ 决策 07-24 08:12:23 +43s·95.4 天前
Serenity转述Sivers CEO播客观点称可插拔光模块仍将长期存在但缺少新增订单或量化催化
正文主要是KOL对播客内容和光通信架构路线的解读，未披露Sivers、AAOI或Lumentum的新订单、客户定点、业绩指引或并购事实。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcas…
不做 Sivers Semiconductors（SIVE.US）
不做：这是KOL转述播客中的行业路线观点，未披露新增订单、客户定点、并购或业绩量化增量，无法形成可回测同向交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-24 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 正文主要是KOL对播客内容和光通信架构路线的解读，未披露Sivers、AAOI或Lumentum的新订单、客户定点、业绩指引或并购事实。
- “pluggables will be around for the next 10 years”和“CPO是长期方向”属于行业观点，无法形成单一标的短周期收入或利润增量。
- 制造产能和上游CW laser瓶颈可能利好合格激光供应商的行业叙事，但本条没有点名新增供货关系或可验证金额。
主要风险
- Serenity账号传播力强，相关小盘光通信标的可能出现情绪波动，但这不是可回测的基本面催化。
- 若后续出现Sivers并购、客户定点或上游激光供应协议等一手事实，应按新事件重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,354 字
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization).
There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI".
Most interesting take was:
"Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years".
There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay.
And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years).
As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp.
From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star.
So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light.
But TLDR:
Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading.
Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI".
Most interesting take was:
"Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years".
There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay.
And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years).
As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp.
From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star.
So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light.
But TLDR:
Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading.
Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
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