🐦 推特Patrick MoorheadCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 09:19:33时区推断·⟳ 抓取 09:19:33·⚡ 决策 07-24 09:21:01 +1m28s·95.3 天前
Lisa Su称AMD Helios将于三季度末开始出货并向四季度至明年上半年爬坡
这条推文确认Lisa Su对Helios量产与三季度末出货节奏表态强硬，但核心内容更像既有路线图和客户合作的再确认。
📄 原文Patrick Moorhead@PatrickMoorhead↗ 原文
There has been a lot of conjecture and debate on Helios shipments. I asked Lisa: “@LisaSu, can you talk a little bit ab…
不做 AMD（AMD.US）
超大市值主标的的会议问答再确认，缺少新增订单金额、收入指引或相对市值足够大的新预期差，不做。
不做 Celestica（CLS.US）
虽是Helios二阶供应链，但Celestica角色已在3月官方披露，本条没有新增订单金额、份额或出货变化，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- AMD与Meta已宣布最高6GW多年合作，首批基于Helios架构的部署计划在2026年下半年开始出货。
- AMD与Celestica宣布Helios rack-scale AI平台合作，Celestica负责scale-up networking switches的研发、设计和制造，Helios预计2026年末面向客户可用。
- Patrick Moorhead转述Lisa Su现场回答：AMD对Helios ramp高度有信心，生产意味着准备出货，三季度末开始出货并延续至四季度和明年上半年。市场反应:事件发生在美股盘后收盘后，当前不可连续成交。
关键理由
- 这条推文确认Lisa Su对Helios量产与三季度末出货节奏表态强硬，但核心内容更像既有路线图和客户合作的再确认。
- AMD与Meta的6GW合作、Helios基于2H 2026出货、Celestica参与Helios网络交换机设计制造等关键信息此前已由官方披露。
- 未新增订单金额、收入指引或毛利率变化，难以证明对AMD这种超大市值主标的构成新的短线重定价增量。
主要风险
- 若后续AMD正式披露Helios三季度末出货量、客户采购金额或数据中心上线节奏显著超预期，需要重新评估。
- Patrick Moorhead推文属于会议问答解读，虽贴近一手现场，但不是AMD新的正式财务指引。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,146 字
There has been a lot of conjecture and debate on Helios shipments.
I asked Lisa:
“@LisaSu, can you talk a little bit about the complexity of what it takes to get it there, and also second half deployments? How do how does AMD define deployment, and talk about your confidence in in getting there?”
Her response:
Yeah, thank you, Pat. So let me start first with a very clear acknowledgement. Hopefully, you saw it from the hardware that we had on stage. I mean, Helios is incredible. I mean, it’s an incredible feat of engineering capability that really has incredible compute, you know, cooling, integration, density, all of those things.
Now, Pat, I think the important thing for people to remember is we have been planning for this moment for the last several years in terms of both what we have built internally. You know, Vamsi and his entire team on the platform and the software capability for Helios. You know Forrest and his entire team on the networking capability, our acquisition of Pensando, our acquisition of ZT Systems, our integration of all those capabilities, and perhaps the secret sauce that I hope you can kind of get a feel for from today is we are in lockstep with our partners.
So in other words, we are co-developing. It’s not like you know AMD is developing and then we hand it over to our partners. No, OpenAI is co-developing with us. Meta is co-developing with us. You saw some of the comments from Tom Brown at Anthropic. We are in a place where I think we are highly confident in the ramp, declaring production means we are ready to ship. We’re going to start shipments at the end of the third quarter. They’re going to continue to ramp into the fourth quarter and into the first half of next year.
We have planned the exact data centers that the first shipments are going to go into. We’re working very closely with our ODM partners, who are together ensuring. I think the difference with Helios is every part of the supply chain needs to be aligned, and you know that has also been one of our key vectors. But we’re feeling really good about it. Thanks.”
I’m taking this as incredibly confident.
$AMD
I asked Lisa:
“@LisaSu, can you talk a little bit about the complexity of what it takes to get it there, and also second half deployments? How do how does AMD define deployment, and talk about your confidence in in getting there?”
Her response:
Yeah, thank you, Pat. So let me start first with a very clear acknowledgement. Hopefully, you saw it from the hardware that we had on stage. I mean, Helios is incredible. I mean, it’s an incredible feat of engineering capability that really has incredible compute, you know, cooling, integration, density, all of those things.
Now, Pat, I think the important thing for people to remember is we have been planning for this moment for the last several years in terms of both what we have built internally. You know, Vamsi and his entire team on the platform and the software capability for Helios. You know Forrest and his entire team on the networking capability, our acquisition of Pensando, our acquisition of ZT Systems, our integration of all those capabilities, and perhaps the secret sauce that I hope you can kind of get a feel for from today is we are in lockstep with our partners.
So in other words, we are co-developing. It’s not like you know AMD is developing and then we hand it over to our partners. No, OpenAI is co-developing with us. Meta is co-developing with us. You saw some of the comments from Tom Brown at Anthropic. We are in a place where I think we are highly confident in the ramp, declaring production means we are ready to ship. We’re going to start shipments at the end of the third quarter. They’re going to continue to ramp into the fourth quarter and into the first half of next year.
We have planned the exact data centers that the first shipments are going to go into. We’re working very closely with our ODM partners, who are together ensuring. I think the difference with Helios is every part of the supply chain needs to be aligned, and you know that has also been one of our key vectors. But we’re feeling really good about it. Thanks.”
I’m taking this as incredibly confident.
$AMD
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