🐦 推特Wall St EngineCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 16:16:19时区推断·⟳ 抓取 16:16:19·⚡ 决策 07-24 16:18:13 +1m54s·95.0 天前
长鑫存储被称服务器DDR5报价高于三星，并据称获字节、腾讯多年大单
事件一阶受益主体长鑫存储尚未上市，无法直接交易。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
CHINESE MEMORY IS NO LONGER THE CHEAP ALTERNATIVE China’s largest DRAM maker, CXMT, is reportedly charging more than Sa…
不做 北方华创（002371.SZ）
长鑫供应链利好属于已传播的IPO和扩产旧叙事，本条未披露北方华创新增订单金额或份额，盘后追二阶无明确edge。
不做 精智达（688627.SH）
虽有长鑫测试设备供应链标签，但本条是长鑫客户采购与IPO转述，不能直接量化到精智达新增收入，且题材名单已旧。
不做 雅克科技（002409.SZ）
材料供应链受益逻辑间接，缺少本条对应的新增采购公告或金额，长鑫概念已被市场提前梳理，不做。
不做 安集科技（688019.SH）
CMP材料敞口为二阶旧逻辑，本条不能证明短周期收入或利润重估，A股已收盘后不追概念映射。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 长鑫供应链概念股名单在5月已被市场梳理，覆盖北方华创、中微公司、华海清科、雅克科技等A股标的。
- 长鑫、长江存储IPO及扩产带动设备材料供应链的逻辑已被中文财经媒体提前传播。
- 长鑫作为全球DRAM第四大厂、Q1收入高增、拟进行大规模IPO及扩产等核心信息已提前传播。
- 本条社媒把路透口径的高价DDR5、字节和腾讯多年采购协议、IPO及扩产信息合并转述。市场反应:A股、港股已收盘，美股盘前未开盘。
关键理由
- 事件一阶受益主体长鑫存储尚未上市，无法直接交易。
- 可映射的A股设备、材料、封测供应链名单已在长鑫IPO和扩产叙事中传播数周至数月，本条没有披露对上市供应商的新订单金额或份额。
- 字节、腾讯采购若属实验证国产DRAM需求，但短周期内难以量化传导到单一上市供应商收入或利润。
主要风险
- 若后续长鑫招股书或供应商公告首次披露具体新增订单，需作为新催化重判。
- 存储国产替代主题可能继续有情绪交易，但本条在16:16 A股收盘后到达，次一交易日追供应链容易面对已传播题材的高开风险。
原文全文
展开原文 · 786 字
CHINESE MEMORY IS NO LONGER THE CHEAP ALTERNATIVE
China’s largest DRAM maker, CXMT, is reportedly charging more than Samsung’s roughly $1,240 price for comparable 64GB DDR5 server memory modules.
CXMT spent years competing as a cheaper, state-backed alternative. Now, AI data-center demand has tightened conventional memory supply, while Beijing has steered state-owned buyers toward domestic suppliers.
Reuters reports CXMT has secured a five-year agreement worth more than $7 billion with ByteDance and another worth over $3 billion with Tencent.
The company generated $7.5 billion in Q1 revenue, up 719% year over year, and is preparing to debut in Shanghai following an $8.6 billion IPO. New factories could more than double production capacity to over 600,000 wafers per month.
China’s largest DRAM maker, CXMT, is reportedly charging more than Samsung’s roughly $1,240 price for comparable 64GB DDR5 server memory modules.
CXMT spent years competing as a cheaper, state-backed alternative. Now, AI data-center demand has tightened conventional memory supply, while Beijing has steered state-owned buyers toward domestic suppliers.
Reuters reports CXMT has secured a five-year agreement worth more than $7 billion with ByteDance and another worth over $3 billion with Tencent.
The company generated $7.5 billion in Q1 revenue, up 719% year over year, and is preparing to debut in Shanghai following an $8.6 billion IPO. New factories could more than double production capacity to over 600,000 wafers per month.
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