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北京时间·🕒 发布 18:43:26时区推断·⟳ 抓取 18:43:26·⚡ 决策 07-27 18:44:36 +1m10s·92.1 天前
美银称欧洲半导体回调后具备买点并维持看好ASML等设备股
这是一份券商行业观点摘要，核心是估值回调、2028年设备支出预期和对ASML/ASM的买入观点，并非公司新增订单、财报超预期或一手经营披露。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
BOFA ON EU SEMICONDUCTORS: 'SELL-OFF CREATES A COMPELLING ENTRY POINT' "From the peak to now, the SOX has underperforme…
不做 ASML（ASML.NL）
券商行业观点和估值修复判断不是公司级新增硬催化，缺少未定价的短周期收入、利润或订单增量，不做。
不做 ASM International（ASM.NL）
明日财报超预期只是卖方预测，实际结果尚未披露；需等财报与指引落地后由新事件重新研判，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-27 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high
关键理由
- 这是一份券商行业观点摘要，核心是估值回调、2028年设备支出预期和对ASML/ASM的买入观点，并非公司新增订单、财报超预期或一手经营披露。
- 正文虽提到ASM明日财报可能超预期11%，但属于卖方预测而非已发生事实，且财报前交易需要等实际披露与市场反应验证。
- 半导体设备景气和AI资本开支属于已广泛交易的行业主线，缺少可量化、短周期、未定价的单公司新增催化。
主要风险
- 若明日ASM实际财报显著超预期并上调指引，应由新信号按财报事件重新研判。
- 行业回调后的估值修复逻辑更像中期配置观点，不适合直接生成事件驱动短线单。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,062 字
BOFA ON EU SEMICONDUCTORS: 'SELL-OFF CREATES A COMPELLING ENTRY POINT'
"From the peak to now, the SOX has underperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 18%. Looking at the past 15 years, this is in line with prior historical corrections: the 2015 China slowdown resulted in 17.3% underperformance, while the 2018 China-U.S. trade tensions and Federal Reserve hiking cycle resulted in 17% underperformance. However, the current correction is not as deep as the approximately 30% historical drawdowns seen during downturns, including 28% in 2011–2012, 29% after COVID in 2022, and 32% amid trade tensions in 2024–2025.
Given strong fundamentals, we think the sector looks highly attractive, trading at an approximately 3x discount to average 2028 consensus multiples, with semiconductor capital equipment companies specifically trading at a 6x–7x discount. We see enhanced buying opportunities in semiconductor capital equipment, where visibility is the highest, and maintain our Buy rating on ASML.
We remain confident in semiconductor capital equipment, with wafer fabrication equipment spending tracking toward at least $250 billion in 2028, representing two years of 30% year-over-year growth. This outlook is underpinned by long-term agreements signed by major artificial intelligence logic and memory companies, including Samsung and Broadcom's five-year, $200 billion foundry deal, and validated by higher capital expenditure announcements from TSMC and Intel over the past few weeks.
Fears of a memory pricing crash appear unfounded, in our view, given long-term agreements signed by all major hyperscalers and automotive and consumer original equipment manufacturers.
Within our coverage, we expect ASM's Q2 EPS, due tomorrow after the European market close, to exceed consensus expectations by 11%, supported by TSMC and Intel capital expenditure increases, strength in China, and an analog and power recovery. We like ASML given higher average selling prices and gross margins. Our calendar 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates remain 6%–7% above consensus."
"From the peak to now, the SOX has underperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 18%. Looking at the past 15 years, this is in line with prior historical corrections: the 2015 China slowdown resulted in 17.3% underperformance, while the 2018 China-U.S. trade tensions and Federal Reserve hiking cycle resulted in 17% underperformance. However, the current correction is not as deep as the approximately 30% historical drawdowns seen during downturns, including 28% in 2011–2012, 29% after COVID in 2022, and 32% amid trade tensions in 2024–2025.
Given strong fundamentals, we think the sector looks highly attractive, trading at an approximately 3x discount to average 2028 consensus multiples, with semiconductor capital equipment companies specifically trading at a 6x–7x discount. We see enhanced buying opportunities in semiconductor capital equipment, where visibility is the highest, and maintain our Buy rating on ASML.
We remain confident in semiconductor capital equipment, with wafer fabrication equipment spending tracking toward at least $250 billion in 2028, representing two years of 30% year-over-year growth. This outlook is underpinned by long-term agreements signed by major artificial intelligence logic and memory companies, including Samsung and Broadcom's five-year, $200 billion foundry deal, and validated by higher capital expenditure announcements from TSMC and Intel over the past few weeks.
Fears of a memory pricing crash appear unfounded, in our view, given long-term agreements signed by all major hyperscalers and automotive and consumer original equipment manufacturers.
Within our coverage, we expect ASM's Q2 EPS, due tomorrow after the European market close, to exceed consensus expectations by 11%, supported by TSMC and Intel capital expenditure increases, strength in China, and an analog and power recovery. We like ASML given higher average selling prices and gross margins. Our calendar 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates remain 6%–7% above consensus."
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