🐦 推特Wall St EngineCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06:58:24时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06:58:49·⚡ 决策 07-29 07:00:16 +1m27s·90.3 天前
SK海力士二季度业绩传闻显示营收和经营利润低于预期但价格与HBM指标仍强
推文披露的二季度营收和经营利润均低于市场预期，短线对SK海力士主股构成负面 surprise。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
SK HYNIX $SKHY Q2’26 DETAILED EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $54.6B (Est. $57.7B) 🔴; +257% YoY, +51% QoQ 🔹 Operating Pr…
不做 SK海力士（000660.KS）
财报摘要正负混合：营收和经营利润低于预期偏空，但ASP、利润率、HBM4和长期协议偏强；且前一交易日已大跌，韩国本股盘前追空/追多都没有清晰正期望。
不做 SK海力士ADR（SKHY.US）
ADR存在显著溢价和结构性套利限制，本条财报摘要不足以给出可执行同向交易；等待官方业绩会和盘前真实定价后再由新信号判断。
不做 美光科技（MU.US）
美光只属于存储周期读出，SK海力士业绩miss与ASP强势互相抵消，无法形成单一方向的可执行交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- SK海力士已正式披露将在2026-07-29 09:00 KST召开2026年二季度业绩电话会，说明财报日期本身不是新催化。
- 韩联社报道市场预期SK海力士二季度销售额84.1万亿韩元、经营利润64.1万亿韩元，建立了本次miss对比基准。
- 韩国存储股在财报前已因中国存储竞争担忧大跌，SK海力士下跌14.7%，使本次财报miss的剩余可交易空间变差。市场反应:SK海力士韩国股价据报道下跌14.7%。
- 社交账号发布二季度详细业绩摘要，显示营收和经营利润低于预期，但价格、利润率和HBM4进展仍强。
关键理由
- 推文披露的二季度营收和经营利润均低于市场预期，短线对SK海力士主股构成负面 surprise。
- 但DRAM/NAND ASP大幅环比上涨、经营利润率创高、HBM4出货和长期协议信息仍支持存储上行周期，净方向不是单边利空。
- 官方6-K显示公司原定2026-07-29 09:00 KST召开二季度业绩会，本信号发生在会前约1小时，属于可能提前流出的财报摘要但尚需官方材料确认。
主要风险
- 若官方财报确认miss且管理层下调需求或价格展望，SK海力士可能继续承压；但目前正文给出的价格和HBM信息不足以支持开空。
- SK海力士ADR近期存在显著ADR溢价和高波动，且韩国本股前一交易日已因中国存储竞争担忧大跌，开盘追空容易被反弹或指引细节反杀。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
正文同时披露ASP大涨、经营利润率创高、HBM4出货和长期协议，削弱单纯因miss开空的把握。
检索:SK hynix Q2 2026 earnings HBM4 DRAM ASP NAND ASP long term agreements guidance 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
前一交易日存储股已因中国竞争和CXMT担忧大跌，说明行业风险仍在，不能把强ASP直接读成追多。
检索:SK hynix stock down 14.7 China memory competition July 28 2026 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,784 字
SK HYNIX $SKHY Q2’26 DETAILED EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $54.6B (Est. $57.7B) 🔴; +257% YoY, +51% QoQ
🔹 Operating Profit: $41.6B (Est. $44.2B) 🔴; +557% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 76%; +3,500 bps YoY — record high quarterly OPM
Q3 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: ~+10% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Low-single% QoQ, including Solidigm
Q2 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: ~+30% QoQ; bit growth high-single% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: +mid-50% QoQ; bit growth mid-teen% QoQ
Profitability:
🔹 Gross Margin: 83%; +2,900 bps YoY
🔹 EBITDA: $44.4B; 81% margin; +411% YoY
🔹 Basic EPS: $90.89; vs $8.09 LY
Financials:
🔹 Cash: $60.5B; up from $11.7B LY
🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $12.8B; down from $15.0B LY
🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -26%; from +6% LY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $45.2B
🔹 Total Assets: $240.0B
2026 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY
🔹 2026 CapEx: High $40T KRW range (~$31-34B)
Product & Technology:
🔹 HBM4: Shipments began in Q2, full ramp planned 2H
🔹 HBM4E: 1cnm-based samples supplied to a major customer in 1H
🔹 SOCAMM2: Full supply commenced on 1cnm
🔹 321L NAND: Largest share of NAND production; targeting 50% of domestic capacity by year-end 2026
Business Highlights:
🔹 Long-Term Agreements: ~10 concluded including key customers, with deposit mechanisms and volatility-aware pricing
🔸 Listed ADRs on Nasdaq July 10, 2026 — the largest-ever U.S. IPO by a foreign company
🔸 Reviewing additional shareholder return measures to enhance scale and continuity
🔸 Temporary adjustment in smartphone and PC sales due to challenges securing memory volumes; recovery expected as supply tightness eases
Note:
🔹 Net Profit: $64.6B; +1,243% YoY; includes $43.5B of investment-asset gains
🔸 Net profit exceeds revenue on $42.8B of non-operating profit
🔹 Revenue: $54.6B (Est. $57.7B) 🔴; +257% YoY, +51% QoQ
🔹 Operating Profit: $41.6B (Est. $44.2B) 🔴; +557% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 76%; +3,500 bps YoY — record high quarterly OPM
Q3 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: ~+10% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Low-single% QoQ, including Solidigm
Q2 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: ~+30% QoQ; bit growth high-single% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: +mid-50% QoQ; bit growth mid-teen% QoQ
Profitability:
🔹 Gross Margin: 83%; +2,900 bps YoY
🔹 EBITDA: $44.4B; 81% margin; +411% YoY
🔹 Basic EPS: $90.89; vs $8.09 LY
Financials:
🔹 Cash: $60.5B; up from $11.7B LY
🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $12.8B; down from $15.0B LY
🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -26%; from +6% LY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $45.2B
🔹 Total Assets: $240.0B
2026 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY
🔹 2026 CapEx: High $40T KRW range (~$31-34B)
Product & Technology:
🔹 HBM4: Shipments began in Q2, full ramp planned 2H
🔹 HBM4E: 1cnm-based samples supplied to a major customer in 1H
🔹 SOCAMM2: Full supply commenced on 1cnm
🔹 321L NAND: Largest share of NAND production; targeting 50% of domestic capacity by year-end 2026
Business Highlights:
🔹 Long-Term Agreements: ~10 concluded including key customers, with deposit mechanisms and volatility-aware pricing
🔸 Listed ADRs on Nasdaq July 10, 2026 — the largest-ever U.S. IPO by a foreign company
🔸 Reviewing additional shareholder return measures to enhance scale and continuity
🔸 Temporary adjustment in smartphone and PC sales due to challenges securing memory volumes; recovery expected as supply tightness eases
Note:
🔹 Net Profit: $64.6B; +1,243% YoY; includes $43.5B of investment-asset gains
🔸 Net profit exceeds revenue on $42.8B of non-operating profit
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