🐦 推特Wall St EngineCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:06:21时区推断·⟳ 抓取 19:06:49·⚡ 决策 07-29 19:07:31 +42s·90.0 天前
宝洁公布2026财年四季度业绩：收入不及预期、EPS小幅超预期，FY27指引基本贴近一致预期
本次财报是排期内披露，收入21.2亿美元低于预期、调整后EPS 1.43美元小幅高于预期，整体预期差不够明确。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
PROCTER & GAMBLE $PG Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $21.2B (Est. $21.38B) 🔴; +2% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.43 (Est. $1.4…
不做 宝洁（PG.US）
排期内财报预期差不够大：收入miss和利润率下滑不足以构成强空，EPS beat和FY27指引贴近预期也不足以追多，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-29 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 本次财报是排期内披露，收入21.2亿美元低于预期、调整后EPS 1.43美元小幅高于预期，整体预期差不够明确。
- 有机销售持平、经营利润率同比下降220个基点，FY27核心EPS指引区间围绕市场预期，难形成单边做多催化。
- 负面分项存在但不构成强空：宝洁体量大、现金回报稳定，且指引没有明显下修到足以触发可执行做空。
主要风险
- 若开盘后管理层电话会进一步强调需求疲软或利润率压力，可能加重短线抛压。
- 若市场更看重EPS beat和70年连续加息分红，盘前负面解读可能被快速修复。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,340 字
PROCTER & GAMBLE $PG Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $21.2B (Est. $21.38B) 🔴; +2% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.43 (Est. $1.41) 🟢; -3% YoY
🔹 Organic Sales: Flat YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 18.6%; -220 bps YoY
FY27 Guide:
🔹 Core EPS: $6.89-$7.11 (Est. $7.04) 🟡
🔹 Net Sales Growth: +1%-+3%
🔹 Organic Sales Growth: +1%-+3%
🔹 Core EPS Growth: In-line-+3%
🔹 Core Effective Tax Rate: ~20%
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 Beauty: $3.98B; +6% YoY
🔹 Grooming: $1.70B; +1% YoY
🔹 Health Care: $2.76B; +1% YoY
🔹 Fabric & Home Care: $7.43B; +1% YoY
🔹 Baby, Feminine & Family Care: $5.05B; -1% YoY
Other Q4 Metrics:
🔹 Gross Margin: 48.5%; -60 bps YoY
🔹 SG&A % of Sales: 29.9%; +160 bps YoY
🔹 Diluted EPS: $1.26; -15% YoY
🔹 Net Earnings: $3.04B; -16% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $5.1B
Capital Return:
🔹 FY26 Dividends Paid: $10.2B
🔹 FY26 Share Repurchases: $5.0B
🔹 Dividend Increase: 70th Consecutive Year
Comments:
🔸 “Fiscal 2026 was a year of foundation building while continuing to grow sales and profit and return high levels of cash to shareowners despite a very challenging geopolitical and economic environment.”
🔸 “We are confident in our plans to accelerate growth from semester-to-semester, and our investments will be funded with a strong productivity program. We are building momentum with consumers, and we are excited about the long-term opportunities ahead.”
🔹 Revenue: $21.2B (Est. $21.38B) 🔴; +2% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.43 (Est. $1.41) 🟢; -3% YoY
🔹 Organic Sales: Flat YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 18.6%; -220 bps YoY
FY27 Guide:
🔹 Core EPS: $6.89-$7.11 (Est. $7.04) 🟡
🔹 Net Sales Growth: +1%-+3%
🔹 Organic Sales Growth: +1%-+3%
🔹 Core EPS Growth: In-line-+3%
🔹 Core Effective Tax Rate: ~20%
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 Beauty: $3.98B; +6% YoY
🔹 Grooming: $1.70B; +1% YoY
🔹 Health Care: $2.76B; +1% YoY
🔹 Fabric & Home Care: $7.43B; +1% YoY
🔹 Baby, Feminine & Family Care: $5.05B; -1% YoY
Other Q4 Metrics:
🔹 Gross Margin: 48.5%; -60 bps YoY
🔹 SG&A % of Sales: 29.9%; +160 bps YoY
🔹 Diluted EPS: $1.26; -15% YoY
🔹 Net Earnings: $3.04B; -16% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $5.1B
Capital Return:
🔹 FY26 Dividends Paid: $10.2B
🔹 FY26 Share Repurchases: $5.0B
🔹 Dividend Increase: 70th Consecutive Year
Comments:
🔸 “Fiscal 2026 was a year of foundation building while continuing to grow sales and profit and return high levels of cash to shareowners despite a very challenging geopolitical and economic environment.”
🔸 “We are confident in our plans to accelerate growth from semester-to-semester, and our investments will be funded with a strong productivity program. We are building momentum with consumers, and we are excited about the long-term opportunities ahead.”
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