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北京时间·🕒 发布 04:48:46时区推断·⟳ 抓取 04:48:48·⚡ 决策 07-30 04:49:57 +1m09s·89.7 天前
星巴克三季度业绩超预期并上调全年指引，盘后股价已大幅跳涨
星巴克三季度调整后EPS 0.85美元，高于市场预期0.66美元，并将FY26调整后EPS指引上调至2.55-2.65美元，高于约2.40美元预期。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
STARBUCKS $SBUX Q3'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $9.3B (Est. $9.16B) 🟢; -1% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.85 (Est. $0.66) 🟢; +…
不做 星巴克（SBUX.US）
业绩和指引确实利好，但这是排期内财报且盘后已涨近8%至约111.99美元，次日开盘追入缺少可定义的剩余edge；等开盘后承接和分析师修模确认再由新信号接手。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 公司此前已公告将在2026-07-29美股盘后发布三季度业绩，因此披露时点属于市场可预期排期。
- 社交账号在盘后即时转发业绩摘要，显示EPS、收入、同店销售和全年指引均好于预期。
- 财经媒体报道星巴克业绩和展望强于预期，并记录盘后股价大涨。市场反应:SBUX.US由104.14美元收盘价升至约111.99美元，盘后涨幅接近8%。
关键理由
- 星巴克三季度调整后EPS 0.85美元，高于市场预期0.66美元，并将FY26调整后EPS指引上调至2.55-2.65美元，高于约2.40美元预期。
- 北美同店销售和经营利润率改善，说明Back to Starbucks扭转计划有短期验证，但这是排期内财报披露而非低扩散突发事件。
- 股价盘后已从104.14美元升至约111.99美元、涨近8%，主要预期差已被即时交易，次日开盘追入的剩余edge不足。
主要风险
- 财报后跳空若开在盘后价附近，买入即承担高开低走风险；消费股财报利好常在开盘完成主要重定价。
- 国际收入同比大降主要来自中国零售转为许可合资结构，但仍会使收入口径和后续增长质量需要进一步解释。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
未发现足以反转业绩利好的新增公司级利空，但盘后已大幅跳涨，执行层面的追高风险削弱多头edge。
检索:Starbucks Q3 2026 earnings after hours stock price risks International revenue China JV 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,551 字
STARBUCKS $SBUX Q3'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $9.3B (Est. $9.16B) 🟢; -1% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.85 (Est. $0.66) 🟢; +70% YoY
🔹 Global Comp Sales: +7.9%
Raises FY26 Guide:
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.55-$2.65 (Est. $2.40) 🟢
🔹 Global Comp Sales Growth: Nearing 6.0%
🔹 US Comp Sales Growth: Slightly >6.0%
🔹 Revenue: Flat to Slight Growth YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Margin: >11.0%
🔹 Net New Coffeehouses: ~600-650
Q4 Guide:
🔹 US Comp Sales Growth: At least 6.5%
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 North America: $7.4B; +7% YoY
🔹 International: $1.3B; -34% YoY
🔹 Channel Development: $587.9M; +22% YoY
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 North America Comp Sales: +8.1%
🔹 International Comp Sales: +5.7%
🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Margin: 14.4%; +430 bps YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 26.4%; -540 bps YoY
Key Updates:
🔸 International -34% reflects April's conversion of Starbucks China retail to a licensed JV with Boyu Capital, not demand. SBUX retains a 40% stake and still owns/licenses the brand and IP. Company-operated revenue -50.8%, licensed +20.7%; International oper margin expanded to 19.1% from 13.6%.
🔸 Part of the China proceeds funded tender offers for ~$1.3B aggregate principal of outstanding notes.
Comments:
🔸 "We have more work to do, but we're relentlessly focused on reclaiming the third place and becoming the world's greatest customer service company."
🔸 "We are focused on what we can control amid a dynamic operating environment — executing our Back to Starbucks plan with discipline to drive connection, community and long-term value for our customers, partners, and shareholders."
🔹 Revenue: $9.3B (Est. $9.16B) 🟢; -1% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.85 (Est. $0.66) 🟢; +70% YoY
🔹 Global Comp Sales: +7.9%
Raises FY26 Guide:
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.55-$2.65 (Est. $2.40) 🟢
🔹 Global Comp Sales Growth: Nearing 6.0%
🔹 US Comp Sales Growth: Slightly >6.0%
🔹 Revenue: Flat to Slight Growth YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Margin: >11.0%
🔹 Net New Coffeehouses: ~600-650
Q4 Guide:
🔹 US Comp Sales Growth: At least 6.5%
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 North America: $7.4B; +7% YoY
🔹 International: $1.3B; -34% YoY
🔹 Channel Development: $587.9M; +22% YoY
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 North America Comp Sales: +8.1%
🔹 International Comp Sales: +5.7%
🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Margin: 14.4%; +430 bps YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 26.4%; -540 bps YoY
Key Updates:
🔸 International -34% reflects April's conversion of Starbucks China retail to a licensed JV with Boyu Capital, not demand. SBUX retains a 40% stake and still owns/licenses the brand and IP. Company-operated revenue -50.8%, licensed +20.7%; International oper margin expanded to 19.1% from 13.6%.
🔸 Part of the China proceeds funded tender offers for ~$1.3B aggregate principal of outstanding notes.
Comments:
🔸 "We have more work to do, but we're relentlessly focused on reclaiming the third place and becoming the world's greatest customer service company."
🔸 "We are focused on what we can control amid a dynamic operating environment — executing our Back to Starbucks plan with discipline to drive connection, community and long-term value for our customers, partners, and shareholders."
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