三星电子业绩会称AI驱动内存短缺或延续至2028年

From Samsung Electronics Q2 Earnings Call

Q: Do you expect the current memory shortage to persist into next year? If possible, could you also share your medium- to long-term outlook for memory demand?

A: The rapid acceleration of agentic AI is driving an explosive increase in token consumption. This is fueling unprecedented demand not only for AI servers but also for general-purpose computing servers.

In practice, AI frontier model developers that have been unable to secure sufficient cloud capacity from hyperscalers are now requesting allocations from neocloud providers as well. This has translated into large-scale memory procurement by server OEMs that primarily serve those neocloud customers.

Even so, memory shortages mean that many frontier AI companies are still unable to secure the infrastructure they need. To address this, they have begun sharing their medium- to long-term demand forecasts directly with us and expressing their intention to purchase memory from Samsung. We are also seeing the start of requests for long-term supply agreements (LTAs) to secure additional volume.

As the adoption of agentic AI continues to accelerate, memory demand is expanding at an exceptionally rapid pace. Industry supply remains well below demand. Even with increased industry-wide capex, it takes more than three and a half years from the construction of a new fab to wafer production. As a result, meaningful supply expansion through new capacity additions will take considerable time. We therefore believe a significant increase in industry supply before 2028 is unlikely.

Based on the demand visibility we currently have from customers, a substantial amount of unmet demand will roll over into next year, creating additional supply pressure. We expect the memory shortage in 2027 to be even more severe than it is this year, with tight supply conditions likely to persist into 2028.

Looking beyond 2029, it is still too early to make definitive projections. However, as AI token demand continues to surge, large customers building long-term AI infrastructure are expected to continue requesting multi-year supply agreements.

These long-term agreements are well aligned with our objective of hedging future business risks. We intend to prioritize contracts with customers that can provide firm, long-term demand commitments.

Over time, this should allow us to transition away from the historically cyclical nature of the memory industry toward a more stable and predictable business model.

With improved long-term demand visibility through LTAs, we will be in a better position to execute a more flexible supply strategy. Following our existing approach of securing cleanroom infrastructure in advance and installing production equipment in line with demand, we expect to further strengthen this disciplined and flexible capacity expansion strategy.