🐦 推特Tae KimCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 07-31 06:47:52时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07-31 06:48:22·⚡ 决策 08-01 05:55:24 +23h07m·87.4 天前
苹果财报电话会称内存价格仍将继续大幅上行，利多存储原厂但窗口已基本错过
苹果在财报电话会中确认3月、6月和9月季度内存成本逐季上升，且库存缓冲未来递减，方向上验证DRAM/NAND供应商定价权。
📄 原文Tae Kim@firstadopter↗ 原文
Sounds like Apple is expecting further memory chip price hikes in the coming quarters: Apple earnings call: "Let me bac…
不做 SK海力士（000660.KS）
方向利多但7月31日已+29.95%，且同一苹果财报/存储涨价簇已被媒体和市场充分交易，周末后不追。
不做 三星电子（005930.KS）
FactSet供应链确认其为苹果供应商，逻辑成立但7月31日已+26.81%，当前缺少未消化入场edge。
不做 铠侠控股（285A.JP）
NAND涨价受益直接，但7月31日已+17.72%且开高后无低吸窗口，下一交易日不追。
不做 美光科技（MU.US）
存储涨价方向利多，但美光已在前一日大涨后周五回落，说明催化交易拥挤且追涨胜率不足。
不做 佰维存储（688525.SH）
A股存储映射成立但不是新名单；7月31日高开248.99后收225.99，高开回落显示本催化已被兑现。
不做 江波龙（301308.SZ）
存储模组涨价受益逻辑已交易多月，7月31日高开后仅收+2.42%，不适合用周末后开盘追入。
另有 1 腿,见展开详情。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
其余 1 腿
不做 苹果（AAPL.US）
内存成本对苹果偏负面，但强需求和提价能力抵消部分影响，且财报后一个完整交易日已完成重定价，不追空。
研究档案
消息传播链
- 苹果Q2电话会已提示6月季度内存成本显著更高，并称6月后影响会继续扩大，说明本轮不是完全首次出现。
- 苹果Q3财报电话会进一步确认9月季度内存成本还会更高，且库存缓冲会递减，是本条社交帖摘录的核心来源。
- Tae Kim将电话会内存成本段落提炼成“未来几个季度继续涨价”的交易线索，系统在1分钟内抓到。
- 主流财经媒体将苹果内存成本压力、供应短缺和三星/美光/SK海力士定价权作为财报后核心叙事传播。市场反应:苹果股价财报后大幅下跌，存储链获得正向关注。
- 韩国与日本存储原厂已大幅跳空，美光前一日大涨后周五回落，说明事件已被快速交易而非仍处低扩散窗口。市场反应:SK海力士+29.95%、三星电子+26.81%、铠侠+17.72%；美光周五回落约5.9%。
关键理由
- 苹果在财报电话会中确认3月、6月和9月季度内存成本逐季上升，且库存缓冲未来递减，方向上验证DRAM/NAND供应商定价权。
- 内部定量库显示2026年HBM供给已高度锁定，HBM挤占晶圆产能外溢到通用DRAM/NAND涨价，SK海力士、三星、美光、铠侠是最直接受益链。
- 但这条信息已在苹果财报后被市场交易：SK海力士7月31日+29.95%、三星电子+26.81%、铠侠+17.72%，A股存储模组高开后回落，下一交易日缺少正期望追入点。
主要风险
- 若周末主流媒体继续强化“内存超级周期”叙事，存储股仍可能有余波，但当前适合等待回调或新订单/价格数据，而不是追已跳空反应的旧催化。
- 对苹果本身是毛利率压力，但强劲iPhone/Mac需求和涨价转嫁能力构成反证，且财报后一个完整交易日已结束。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 weakens
内部KB检索504，未能补充额外内部反证；已有price_snapshot显示核心原厂7月31日已大幅重定价。
检索:SK Hynix Samsung Micron memory price hikes Apple 100-year flood 2026 DRAM NAND - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-05-06 · 影响 weakens
A股存储涨价映射已有多月公开传播，且7月31日佰维存储、江波龙均高开回落，说明买盘承接不足。
检索:佰维存储 江波龙 存储涨价 DRAM NAND 价格 上涨 受益 敞口 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-31 · 影响 weakens
苹果Q3收入和EPS强于预期、iPhone和Mac需求强，抵消部分内存成本利空，不足以在一个交易日后继续追空。
检索:Apple Q3 2026 earnings strong iPhone Mac demand memory costs 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 影响 supports
定量库支持存储涨价方向，但这是行业beta和已交易主线，不足以证明周末后仍有未消化alpha。
检索:memory DRAM NAND price hikes Apple SK Hynix Samsung Micron 2026 ASP exposure
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(7 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- supply_chain_lookup · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,108 字
Sounds like Apple is expecting further memory chip price hikes in the coming quarters:
Apple earnings call: "Let me back up and talk about memory in general, because I know this is a subject on many of your minds. If you look at, as I'd said on the last call, we paid more for memory in the March quarter than the December quarter. As I alluded to last quarter, we expected to pay significantly more in the June quarter than the March quarter, and that is what happened. It was partially offset by the benefit of carry-in inventory."
"For September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs, and we're able to offset partly by a few factors, and let me walk through kind of what they are. The first is, as you would expect, we have a benefit from some carry-in inventory in the September quarter. However, we believe we'll see decreasing benefit from this over time beyond the September quarter."
"On the pricing front, we reluctantly raised prices, I would say. We did it because we're in what I would characterize as a 100-year flood on the memory pricing, with exponential increases in memory prices."
Apple earnings call: "Let me back up and talk about memory in general, because I know this is a subject on many of your minds. If you look at, as I'd said on the last call, we paid more for memory in the March quarter than the December quarter. As I alluded to last quarter, we expected to pay significantly more in the June quarter than the March quarter, and that is what happened. It was partially offset by the benefit of carry-in inventory."
"For September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs, and we're able to offset partly by a few factors, and let me walk through kind of what they are. The first is, as you would expect, we have a benefit from some carry-in inventory in the September quarter. However, we believe we'll see decreasing benefit from this over time beyond the September quarter."
"On the pricing front, we reluctantly raised prices, I would say. We did it because we're in what I would characterize as a 100-year flood on the memory pricing, with exponential increases in memory prices."
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。