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北京时间·🕒 发布 08-03 17:39:09时区推断·⟳ 抓取 08-03 17:39:40·⚡ 决策 08-04 11:49:41 +18h10m·84.5 天前
摩根士丹利下调 Circle（CRCL.US）评级至减持并将目标价砍至38美元
摩根士丹利认为USDC余额收缩暴露Circle储备收入敏感性，并将2027/2028年USDC假设分别下调约33%/44%。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
Morgan Stanley Downgrades $CRCL to Underweight from Equalweight, Lowers PT to $38 from $106 Analyst comments: "We downg…
不做 Circle Internet Group（CRCL.US）
同一具体催化已在已处理消息库命中：2026-08-04 02:18 UTC和02:23 UTC已有Circle遭摩根士丹利下调评级且TD Cowen给出相反评级观点的决策记录；本次为重复转述，不再出新交易或风险行。
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研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-03 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 摩根士丹利认为USDC余额收缩暴露Circle储备收入敏感性，并将2027/2028年USDC假设分别下调约33%/44%。
- 该行将目标价从106美元大幅下调至38美元，若单独看是对Circle（CRCL.US）的明确负面评级催化。
- 但已处理消息库命中同一具体催化，且已有同簇决策记录，本次不重复出卡或新增风险。
主要风险
- 同簇消息还包含TD Cowen给予买入评级的相反观点，说明卖方分歧较大。
- Circle（CRCL.US）8月3日已收跌3.61%，该催化至少已被当日市场部分消化。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 weakens
内部KB未命中直接改变方向的CRCL新利好，但已处理消息库提示同簇存在TD Cowen买入评级，削弱单边空头信息含量。
检索:Circle CRCL recent bullish catalyst USDC growth partnership earnings upside 2026
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(3 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 812 字
Morgan Stanley Downgrades $CRCL to Underweight from Equalweight, Lowers PT to $38 from $106
Analyst comments: "We downgrade Circle,c as USDC contraction exposes reserve income sensitivity and points to a lower-margin shift toward transaction revenue. We cut our USDC assumptions by approximately 33% in 2027 and 44% in 2028, driving GAAP EPS estimates approximately 3% and 20% below consensus, respectively. Tokenized money market funds and deposits threaten both USDC balances and take rates, while USYC carries structurally weaker economics. Agentic payments remain immaterial, with volume down to $41,900 per day and an implied average transaction size of approximately $0.24. Open USD embeds shared governance and reserve economics, raising the cost of defending USDC distribution."
Analyst: James Faucette
Analyst comments: "We downgrade Circle,c as USDC contraction exposes reserve income sensitivity and points to a lower-margin shift toward transaction revenue. We cut our USDC assumptions by approximately 33% in 2027 and 44% in 2028, driving GAAP EPS estimates approximately 3% and 20% below consensus, respectively. Tokenized money market funds and deposits threaten both USDC balances and take rates, while USYC carries structurally weaker economics. Agentic payments remain immaterial, with volume down to $41,900 per day and an implied average transaction size of approximately $0.24. Open USD embeds shared governance and reserve economics, raising the cost of defending USDC distribution."
Analyst: James Faucette
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