Jukan 发布社媒观点讨论 SNDK 毛利率与内存景气，未披露一手数据，难以作为可执行交易催化

SNDK's gross margin plateau is a welcome move. It means they are not squeezing customers to the extreme, and that they are looking at a long term vision instead. The disciplined, balanced capex execution I have been arguing for all along, the kind that prevents a company from investing to extremes at the top of the cycle and taking severe damage in the downcycle, requires SanDisk's NBM model. There is no way around it.

So is now the right time to buy SanDisk? The bears argue that the gross margin plateau marks the peak of this cycle. That is also why the stock is falling right now.

As I wrote in my SK Hynix earnings review(You can find it in the Citrini Substack chat), this is the point where we should be looking at Q, not P. As long as you believe in the AI supercycle, as long as big tech keeps spending, as long as compute companies like Nvidia remain in short supply, there is no scenario where the shortage eases for memory alone. That is the corresponding effect of LTAs (NBM) and disciplined capex. Even if gross margins stall, as long as Q expands and the floor set by those LTAs prevents an excessive collapse, the total profit pool will grow enormously.

Layer massive shareholder returns such as buybacks on top of that, and memory companies should be rerated, and they will be rerated. From cyclical stocks to essential infrastructure of the AI world.

$SNDK