🐦 推特JukanQwen · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 12:46:31时区推断·⟳ 抓取 12:46:38·⚡ 决策 08-12 12:49:38 +3m00s·76.3 天前
8月服务器DDR5内存条价格全面上涨15%-23%，但涨幅较前几季度明显放缓
📄 原文Jukan@jukan05↗ 原文
>> Server DDR5 Memory Prices Rise 15% to 23% Across the Board This Month • With memory makers continuing to raise price…
不做 江波龙（301308.SZ）
DRAM涨价是持续数月的已知趋势，本月15-23%涨幅较前几季度（55-98%）明显放缓且CFM明确预计后续更温和；股价已从高位回撤44%，处于主题下半程回落阶段，无新增边际催化；我方历史在该票胜率仅21%
不做 佰维存储（688525.SH）
同上：行业月度涨价数据为已知趋势的延续确认，涨幅边际放缓，股价距高点-53%处于回调中，无新增edge
不做 兆易创新（603986.SH）
DRAM涨价趋势已充分反映在前期股价中（52周涨幅曾达630%），当前处于回调阶段，月度数据无新增surprise
不做 香农芯创（300475.SZ）
分销商受益于涨价但已被充分定价，我方历史在该票胜率0%（中位-6%），且涨价边际放缓对分销商库存增值逻辑构成边际利空
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- CFM发布8月服务器DDR5内存条月度报价更新，32GB涨23.29%至$900，64GB涨15.22%至$1590，96GB涨14.72%至$2650
- Jukan转述CFM月度数据，无新增信息，仅措辞翻译
主要风险
- 涨幅较前几季度明显放缓（Q1环比55-98%→本月仅15-23%），且文章明确提到LTA落地后涨幅将更温和
- 存储板块A股标的已从高位大幅回撤22-32%（20日），处于主题炒作下半程的回落阶段
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-11 · 影响 weakens
CFM原文明确表示'随着合约价逐季上涨，服务器大客户对内存成本的上涨更为敏感，加之长协相继落地，DDR5涨幅预计将更加温和'——涨价边际放缓
检索:DRAM DDR5 涨价 放缓 见顶 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 price_snapshot · 日期 2026-08-11 · 影响 weakens
所有存储A股标的近20日跌幅22-32%，距52周高点-44%至-53%，处于主题炒作后的深度回调阶段；近5日虽有反弹但量能不济
检索:存储芯片 A股 回调 风险 2026年7月8月
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:行业月度涨价数据属于持续性背景信息而非离散催化，不适用事件先例研究
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(5 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- web_search · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 784 字
>> Server DDR5 Memory Prices Rise 15% to 23% Across the Board This Month
• With memory makers continuing to raise prices through the third quarter, server DDR5 prices climbed 15% to 23% this month. Prices for 32GB, 64GB and 96GB DDR5 RDIMMs rose to $900, $1,590 and $2,650 respectively. On the spot market, they are trading at roughly $1,800 to $2,100, $3,000 to $3,200 and $3,800 to $4,100 respectively.
• Manufacturer DDR5 supply still falls short of demand, but as contract prices rise each quarter, large server customers are becoming more sensitive to the burden of memory costs.
• With long term supply agreements (LTAs) being signed one after another and large customers securing part of their DDR5 supply, the pace of DDR5 price increases is expected to gradually moderate.
• With memory makers continuing to raise prices through the third quarter, server DDR5 prices climbed 15% to 23% this month. Prices for 32GB, 64GB and 96GB DDR5 RDIMMs rose to $900, $1,590 and $2,650 respectively. On the spot market, they are trading at roughly $1,800 to $2,100, $3,000 to $3,200 and $3,800 to $4,100 respectively.
• Manufacturer DDR5 supply still falls short of demand, but as contract prices rise each quarter, large server customers are becoming more sensitive to the burden of memory costs.
• With long term supply agreements (LTAs) being signed one after another and large customers securing part of their DDR5 supply, the pace of DDR5 price increases is expected to gradually moderate.
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