🐦 推特SerenityCodex · 实盘不做把握 3/10不做原因:证据不足
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:28:43时区推断·⟳ 抓取 04:28:51·⚡ 决策 08-27 04:37:53 +9m02s·61.6 天前
Serenity称CW激光器产能被长协锁定，Sivers和稳懋或成少数剩余商用供应商
事件方向偏利好Sivers和稳懋，但当前只来自社媒推断，且本环境无法调用强制的stock_tools完成经验、去重、行情、案例库和event_study校验，不能输出可执行ENTER。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US cus…
不做 Sivers Semiconductors（SIVE.SE）
不做：社媒线索方向偏多但缺少一手合同、量级、行情和先例校验，无法给出可执行价格。
不做 稳懋半导体（3105.TW）
不做：受益链条需要公司披露或研报级证据坐实，且未查到真实报价和price-in风险。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Serenity推文提出CW激光器产能被Landmark等长协锁定后，剩余具备商用产能的Sivers和稳懋可能受益；但该链条需要一手合同、产能、客户认证、量级和行情验证。现有证据只能说明一个值得跟踪的光通信产能紧缺线索，不足以形成可回测下单。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-26 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
消息传播链
- Serenity发布关于Landmark四年CW协议和CW激光器产能紧缺的社媒推断，非公司一手披露。
关键理由
- 若Landmark四年CW长协属实，行业可售CW激光器产能趋紧将提高剩余merchant suppliers的议价和订单获取概率。
- Sivers和稳懋被原推文点名为少数仍有CW/CPO-grade laser能力和产能的潜在受益方。
- 量级尚未核实：无法从当前材料估算Landmark长协金额、Sivers/稳懋可承接产能、对应收入增量和市值弹性。
主要风险
- 当前不是一手披露，客户、金额、产能锁定程度和产品规格均未坐实，若公司或客户否认则逻辑失效。
- Sivers/稳懋可能已因AI光通信主题预先上涨，未查到近20日走势前无法判断price-in和追高风险。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 weakens
未在当前可用检索中坐实Landmark四年CW协议的一手公告、客户和金额。
检索:Landmark 4 year CW agreement US customer sufficient supply
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例缺失导致本次不输出ENTER，需先补齐event_study和真实行情。
方向:未完成合规先例研究，不能用历史样本支撑方向或胜率。
涨幅量级:未取得可用于校准SIVE.ST或3105.TW涨幅的高相似先例。
形态:无法判断同类社媒点名光通信小盘股是否常见高开低走或见光死。
原文全文
展开原文 · 736 字
I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now…
But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?
So now you have:
- $LITE (capacity gone)
- $COHR (capacity gone)
- Landmark (capacity committed)
- $AAOI (capacity for transceivers)
- $MTSI (not online)
- $SMTC (limited)
I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia?
So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players).
Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers).
Let’s see how they execute.
But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?
So now you have:
- $LITE (capacity gone)
- $COHR (capacity gone)
- Landmark (capacity committed)
- $AAOI (capacity for transceivers)
- $MTSI (not online)
- $SMTC (limited)
I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia?
So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players).
Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers).
Let’s see how they execute.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。