🐦 推特Wall St EngineDoubao · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▼ 亏 -2.86% · 已结算把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:08:33·⟳ 抓取 04:08:48 +15s·⚡ 决策 10-22 04:18:25 +9m37s·5.8 天前
Knight-Swift Q3业绩全面超预期：调整后EPS 0.83美元远超预期0.76美元，营收22亿美元+14%，但Q4指引中值略低于预期
真实、显著的EPS/营业利润beat（EPS超预期约9%、营业利润超约12%）伴随运价和利润率实质改善，标的处13周下行通道、近20日-5.9%、无拥挤，盘后仅+2.85%且量薄（约2.4万股），次日开盘存在正期望；但Q4指引中值略低于共识、电话会尚未结束，降为小仓并限制追高。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
KNIGHT-SWIFT $KNX Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $2.20B (Est. $2.16B) 🟢; +14.2% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.83 (Est. $0.76…
▼ 亏 -2.86%入场 10-21 盘后首笔 @64.83 → 离场 10-22 常规开盘 @63.18
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑Q3 EPS/利润大超预期+运价改善，盘后仅+2.8%未充分定价
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +3%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +5%(半仓)/+9%(清仓) · 止损 -5% · 时间止损 3日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 KNX.US Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
5 个交易日均已收盘,数据完整 · 美股含盘前盘后(灰底:美东 04:00 至收盘后 4 小时)
- 发布 10-22 04:08 北京(美东 10-21 16:08)
- 抓取 10-22 04:08 北京(美东 10-21 16:08)
- 入场 10-22 04:12 北京(美东 10-21 16:12) · 盘后首笔 @64.83
- 决策 10-22 04:18 北京(美东 10-21 16:18)
- 离场 10-22 21:30 北京(美东 10-22 09:30) · 常规开盘 @63.18
时间轴只含交易时段(午休、隔夜已压缩);横轴为北京时间,悬停看当地时间;蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价;建仓日图红线在昨收上方、绿线在下方
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 KNX.US Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
| 收益状态 | -2.86% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-10-21 · 盘后首笔 · 10-22 04:12 北京 · @64.828 · 成交 5% |
| 离场成交 | 2026-10-22 · 常规开盘 · @63.18 |
| 毛收益 | -2.54% |
| 成本 | +0.32% |
| 净收益 | -2.86% |
| 计入收益 | -0.14% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-10-21 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 23:27
研究档案
结论摘要
Knight-Swift Q3营收22亿+14%、调整后EPS 0.83美元大超0.76美元预期，整车每载英里收入+9.7%、经营比率显著改善；股价此前13周阴跌、盘后仅涨2.85%定价不充分。Q4指引中值微低共识，属beat伴随温和指引，小仓在次日开盘限价内参与。
消息传播链
- 公司盘后在IR网站发布Q3'26完整财报并将提交8-K，17:30 EDT召开电话会市场反应:盘后股价+2.85%至65.00美元，成交约2.37万股，量薄
- 社媒发布完整业绩要点，数据与媒体报道（净利润1.183亿美元、营收22亿+14%）一致
关键理由
- EPS超预期约9%、调整后营业利润超预期约12%，且由整车定价（每载英里收入+9.7%）和成本控制驱动的真实利润率改善，不是一次性因素
- 股价处13周下行轨迹（指数化100→90）、20日-5.9%、日波动仅约1.8%，无抢跑拥挤；盘后+2.85%仅2.4万股薄成交，beat幅度尚未被充分定价
主要风险
- Q4 EPS指引0.78-0.84中值0.81低于共识0.82，电话会（21:30 UTC）若强调燃油与司机成本压力、需求平淡，可能转为高开低走
- 盘后量极薄（约2.4万美元/笔级流动性），明日开盘可能跳空后回吐；若高开超过4%不追
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-21 · 影响 weakens
Q4 EPS指引中值0.81低于共识0.82；公司自述燃油和司机相关成本为环比逆风，物流分部营收同比-1.0%，构成边际反证但未抵消Q3大beat
检索:Knight-Swift Q4 guidance soft fuel driver costs headwind Q3 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web_search · 影响 none
未发现本财报之外的新增重大利空；GAAP含1860万美元无形资产摊销与120万美元法律计提，金额不重大
检索:KNX 近期利空 砍单 下调 诉讼
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:样本不足使仓位降为small、止盈偏保守、并将Q4指引偏弱写入风险，不据此否决方向明确的EPS大超预期
方向:本轮未取得锚点干净的同市场卡车运输股财报对齐先例，不据记忆设定胜率
涨幅量级:无高相似对齐样本，tp/sl改用标的自身低波动（20日日波动约1.8%）与盘后实际涨幅校准，保守设定
形态:无外部先例验证见光死模式；本臂近期处理的beat-but-soft-guide个股（EFX/WAB/WGO等）多为混合反应，提示收紧买点
工具执行结果 · 成功 3 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,855 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`knight-swift knx q3 2026 earnings revenue eps beat q4 guidance | knight-swift 第三季度业绩 调整后eps 0.83 指引`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 72.0/72 小时、26750 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 16 条候选。\n• 10-20 23:17 UTC(北京 10-21 07:17) [bm25:56%] 不做 KNX.US (seeking_alpha) — Knight-Swift - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 190 ms
{ - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,333 ms
豆包搜索结果（原始查询:Knight-Swift KNX Q3 2026 earnings results beat EPS guidance reaction；API SearchType:web）
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,277 字
KNIGHT-SWIFT $KNX Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $2.20B (Est. $2.16B) 🟢; +14.2% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.83 (Est. $0.76) 🟢; +159.4% YoY
🔹 Adj. Op. Income: $198.55M (Est. $177M) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Operating Ratio: 89.3%
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Net Cash CapEx: $600M-$625M; from $600M-$650M
🔹 Adj. Tax Rate: ~25.0%-26.0%
Q4 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.78-$0.84 (Est. $0.82) 🟡
🔹 Adj. Tax Rate: ~24.7%-25.7%
Segment Revenue (ex-fuel surcharge):
🔹 Truckload: $1.15B; +6.5% YoY
🔹 LTL: $341.7M; +0.4% YoY
🔹 Logistics: $139.0M; -1.0% YoY
🔹 Intermodal: $122.9M; +30.6% YoY
Segment Operating Ratios:
🔹 Truckload Adj. Operating Ratio: 89.2%
🔹 LTL Adj. Operating Ratio: 91.4%
🔹 Logistics Adj. Operating Ratio: 93.1%
🔹 Intermodal Adj. Operating Ratio: 97.8%
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.72; vs $0.05 LY
🔹 Operating Ratio: 91.9%
🔹 Revenue ex-Fuel Surcharge: $1.85B; +7.7% YoY
🔹 Truckload Rev/Loaded Mile ex-FSC: +9.7% YoY
Key Updates:
🔹 Amortization of intangibles: $18.6M pre-tax
🔹 Legal accruals and loss contingencies: $1.2M pre-tax
🔹 Effective tax rate on non-GAAP results: 25.6%
Comments:
🔸 “While fuel and driver-related costs were sequential headwinds in the quarter, our ongoing efforts around pricing and cost control helped us navigate these headwinds and achieve meaningful margin improvement.”
🔹 Revenue: $2.20B (Est. $2.16B) 🟢; +14.2% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.83 (Est. $0.76) 🟢; +159.4% YoY
🔹 Adj. Op. Income: $198.55M (Est. $177M) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Operating Ratio: 89.3%
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Net Cash CapEx: $600M-$625M; from $600M-$650M
🔹 Adj. Tax Rate: ~25.0%-26.0%
Q4 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.78-$0.84 (Est. $0.82) 🟡
🔹 Adj. Tax Rate: ~24.7%-25.7%
Segment Revenue (ex-fuel surcharge):
🔹 Truckload: $1.15B; +6.5% YoY
🔹 LTL: $341.7M; +0.4% YoY
🔹 Logistics: $139.0M; -1.0% YoY
🔹 Intermodal: $122.9M; +30.6% YoY
Segment Operating Ratios:
🔹 Truckload Adj. Operating Ratio: 89.2%
🔹 LTL Adj. Operating Ratio: 91.4%
🔹 Logistics Adj. Operating Ratio: 93.1%
🔹 Intermodal Adj. Operating Ratio: 97.8%
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.72; vs $0.05 LY
🔹 Operating Ratio: 91.9%
🔹 Revenue ex-Fuel Surcharge: $1.85B; +7.7% YoY
🔹 Truckload Rev/Loaded Mile ex-FSC: +9.7% YoY
Key Updates:
🔹 Amortization of intangibles: $18.6M pre-tax
🔹 Legal accruals and loss contingencies: $1.2M pre-tax
🔹 Effective tax rate on non-GAAP results: 25.6%
Comments:
🔸 “While fuel and driver-related costs were sequential headwinds in the quarter, our ongoing efforts around pricing and cost control helped us navigate these headwinds and achieve meaningful margin improvement.”
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