🐦 推特Wall St EngineDoubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:16:08·⟳ 抓取 04:16:24 +16s·⚡ 决策 10-22 04:33:25 +17m01s·6.0 天前
CACI（CACI.US）Q1 FY27营收不及预期但调整后EPS大超预期并上调全年指引，盘后涨约2%
业绩质量多空交织：营收同比+8.2%但低于预期且有机增长仅+2.1%（增长主要靠并购），所谓上调指引后全年营收/EPS中值仅与卖方一致预期持平，真正超预期的是利润率驱动的季度EPS；而股价常规时段已先涨2.57%（财报16:15才发布，存在提前布局），盘后再涨2.0%至636美元，累计较前收约+4.6%，叠加同板块NOC前一日beat+raise后见光回落的先例，当前位置追多缺乏正期望。
📄 原文Wall St Engine@wallstengine↗ 原文
$CACI Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $2.47B (Est. $2.52B) 🔴; +8.2% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $7.66 (Est. $6.67) 🟢; +11.8% Y…
不做 CACI International Inc（CACI.US）
风险收益比不足/追高无edge：营收miss且有机增长仅2.1%，上调后的FY27指引中值仅与一致预期持平，利润beat已在财报前盘中+2.57%与盘后+2.0%（累计约+4.6%）中被定价，盘后薄量且先翻绿后拉起，叠加NOC前一日beat+raise见光回落的板块先例；不做空（利润大超预期、book-to-bill 2.0倍、卖方上调目标价至785美元，强空催化不成立），若次日回踩至前收附近且分析师实质上调2027年模型再重新评估右侧机会
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
CACI Q1利润端大超预期、book-to-bill 2.0倍并上调指引，但营收miss、有机增长仅2.1%且新指引中值仅与预期持平；股价盘前盘中已提前上涨、盘后累计约+4.6%，参照防务板块beat后见光回落模式，风险收益比不足，不做。
消息传播链
- 节点
- 节点
关键理由
- EPS/EBITDA显著超预期（7.66 vs 6.67美元）、book-to-bill 2.0倍、已资助backlog同比+14.8%，防务IT需求与利润率趋势扎实
主要风险
- 营收miss且有机增长仅2.1%，全年指引中值仅与一致预期持平，若次日卖方不上修模型则缺乏增量催化
- 财报发布前常规时段已涨2.57%、盘后再涨约2%，累计约+4.6%，薄量盘后定价次日可能高开低走
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-21 · 影响 weakens
营收24.75亿低于预期25.2亿，有机增长仅2.1%（同比8.2%主要靠并购），FY27指引中值108.0亿/EPS 33.63仅与预期108.1亿/33.64持平——上调是相对公司旧指引，相对市场并无显著上修
检索:CACI Q1 FY27 revenue miss organic growth guidance in-line consensus 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-10-21 · 影响 weakens
财报16:15发布前常规时段已收涨2.57%（607.75→623.38），盘后再涨2.02%，盘后区间一度低见607（先翻绿再拉起），累计较前收约+4.6%且盘后量极薄
检索:CACI stock October 21 2026 pre-earnings move intraday +2.57%
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足与NOC类比共同支持在累计+4.6%位置放弃追多，而非给出ENTER价量参数
方向:未完成外部先例面板；唯一直接可比的同板块案例是本臂昨日对Northrop Grumman Q3 beat+raise的决策（涨6%后判price-in不做），提示防务股财报后存在见光回落模式
涨幅量级:缺乏高相似、锚干净的CACI自身财报先例，不用虚构数字校准tp/sl
形态:弱证据指向防务大盘股beat+raise且指引仅符预期时容易盘中冲高回落
工具执行结果 · 成功 4 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,458 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`caci international first quarter fiscal 2027 results book-to-bill backlog | caci q1 fy27 earnings revenue eps guidance raised | caci 财报 上调全年指引`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 72.0/72 小时、26859 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 1 条候选。\n• 10-20 14:52 UTC(北京 22:52) [bm25:47%] 不做 NO - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 917 ms
{ - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,144 ms
豆包搜索结果（原始查询:CACI International Q1 fiscal 2027 results raised guidance October 2026；API SearchType:web） - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,778 ms
豆包搜索结果（原始查询:CACI earnings reaction defense contractor beat raise stock next day analyst price target；API SearchType:web）
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,704 字
$CACI Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $2.47B (Est. $2.52B) 🔴; +8.2% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $7.66 (Est. $6.67) 🟢; +11.8% YoY
🔹 EBITDA: $328.8M (Est. $295M) 🟢; +22.4% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $247.5M (Est. $212M) 🟢
FY27 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $10.70B-$10.90B (Est. $10.81B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $33.18-$34.08 (Est. $33.64) 🟡
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $740M-$760M
🔹 Free Cash Flow: At least $900M
Revenue by Customer:
🔹 Department of War: $1.35B; +14.8% YoY
🔹 Intelligence Community: $612.0M; +2.6% YoY
🔹 Federal civilian agencies: $396.4M; -3.7% YoY
🔹 Commercial and other: $112.0M; +12.1% YoY
Other Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Organic Revenue Growth: +2.1%
🔹 EBITDA Margin: 13.3%
🔹 GAAP EPS: $5.84; +3.7% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $130.4M; +4.5% YoY
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $171.0M; +12.7% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $133.5M
🔹 Contract Awards: $4.8B
🔹 Book-to-Bill: 2.0x
🔹 Total Backlog: $34.0B; +0.3% YoY
🔹 Funded Backlog: $6.2B; +14.8% YoY
Key Updates:
🔹 Adjusted diluted EPS excludes intangible amortization expense of $2.43 per share and its $0.61 tax effect
🔹 Raising fiscal year 2027 guidance for Revenue, Adjusted net income, and Adjusted EPS; reaffirming guidance for other financial metrics
🔹 Five-year task order valued at up to $1.6B to continue helping the U.S. Army Special Operations Command stay ahead of emerging threats
🔹 One-year plus four option periods award with a $1.5B ceiling to support U.S. Central Command and its mission partners
🔹 Marcie Small appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Comments:
🔸 “Based on our results, large and growing backlog, and healthy pipeline, we are raising our fiscal year 2027 revenue and earnings profit outlook while reaffirming guidance for other financial metrics.”
🔹 Revenue: $2.47B (Est. $2.52B) 🔴; +8.2% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $7.66 (Est. $6.67) 🟢; +11.8% YoY
🔹 EBITDA: $328.8M (Est. $295M) 🟢; +22.4% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $247.5M (Est. $212M) 🟢
FY27 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $10.70B-$10.90B (Est. $10.81B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $33.18-$34.08 (Est. $33.64) 🟡
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $740M-$760M
🔹 Free Cash Flow: At least $900M
Revenue by Customer:
🔹 Department of War: $1.35B; +14.8% YoY
🔹 Intelligence Community: $612.0M; +2.6% YoY
🔹 Federal civilian agencies: $396.4M; -3.7% YoY
🔹 Commercial and other: $112.0M; +12.1% YoY
Other Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Organic Revenue Growth: +2.1%
🔹 EBITDA Margin: 13.3%
🔹 GAAP EPS: $5.84; +3.7% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $130.4M; +4.5% YoY
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $171.0M; +12.7% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $133.5M
🔹 Contract Awards: $4.8B
🔹 Book-to-Bill: 2.0x
🔹 Total Backlog: $34.0B; +0.3% YoY
🔹 Funded Backlog: $6.2B; +14.8% YoY
Key Updates:
🔹 Adjusted diluted EPS excludes intangible amortization expense of $2.43 per share and its $0.61 tax effect
🔹 Raising fiscal year 2027 guidance for Revenue, Adjusted net income, and Adjusted EPS; reaffirming guidance for other financial metrics
🔹 Five-year task order valued at up to $1.6B to continue helping the U.S. Army Special Operations Command stay ahead of emerging threats
🔹 One-year plus four option periods award with a $1.5B ceiling to support U.S. Central Command and its mission partners
🔹 Marcie Small appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Comments:
🔸 “Based on our results, large and growing backlog, and healthy pipeline, we are raising our fiscal year 2027 revenue and earnings profit outlook while reaffirming guidance for other financial metrics.”
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