TSOH Investment ResearchCodex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:30:16时区推断·⟳ 抓取 19:28:35·⚡ 决策 07-20 19:29:33 +58s·99.1 天前
TSOH文章复盘On Holdings增长势头但未披露新催化
本文主要是投资研究观点复盘，核心事实为既有Q1业绩、APAC增长和长期品牌叙事，并非新的订单、指引、监管或经营拐点。
📄 原文TSOH Investment Research↗ 原文
On Holdings: Maintaining Pace
*Note: Thursday’s post will be an update on [Netflix (NFLX)](https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/netflix)* From “**[Runni…
不做 On Holding（ONON.US）
研究文章仅复盘既有业绩与长期品牌增长逻辑，没有新的公司级催化、金额增量或超预期指引，无法形成可回测同向交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-20 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 本文主要是投资研究观点复盘，核心事实为既有Q1业绩、APAC增长和长期品牌叙事，并非新的订单、指引、监管或经营拐点。
主要风险
- 若后续公司正式上调指引或披露中国/APAC超预期经营数据，需要按新事件重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,104 字
*Note: Thursday’s post will be an update on [Netflix (NFLX)](https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/netflix)*
From “**[Running On Clouds](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/running-on-clouds)**” (July 2024):
*“We’re at a moment where large and well established brands, most notably Nike, have lost some standing relative to emerging competitors… Under Armour is a cautionary tale of what On Holdings (ONON) must avoid to live up to their long-term ambitions for the brand… [Revenue growth targets] cannot take precedence over sustained brand health. This is a difficult balancing act, one that we have seen industry peers struggle to navigate.”*
In the two years since the initiation was published, On has kept making progress in its key category - running shoes - which accounts for >80% of its revenues. This is the primary driver of FY26e revenues of ~3.5 billion Swiss francs (CHF), or ~$4.3 billion at current exchange rates – **nearly 5x larger** than On’s revenue base five years earlier. [Over that same period](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/nike-conditioning-phase), annual Footwear revenues at Nike increased by ~5% *cumulative*, to ~$29.5 billion.
[In the most recent quarter](https://investors.on-running.com/news/news-details/2026/On-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx), On reported mid-20’s (%) constant currency revenue growth, led by strength in Asia-Pacific (APAC) and mid-50’s (%) CC revenue growth in the Apparel category - as [co-CEO Caspar Coppetti](https://investors.on-running.com/news/news-details/2026/On-Co-Founders-to-Lead-Next-Chapter-of-Growth-as-Co-CEOs/default.aspx) put it on the quarterly call, “continuing our strategy of growing from toe to head”.
APAC, led by China, is becoming an increasingly important geography for On: as shown below, the region accounted for more than 20% of On’s Q1 FY26 revenue mix, compared to a mid-single digit percentage in FY22.
"The Most Premium Brand In Sports"
From “**[Running On Clouds](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/running-on-clouds)**” (July 2024):
*“We’re at a moment where large and well established brands, most notably Nike, have lost some standing relative to emerging competitors… Under Armour is a cautionary tale of what On Holdings (ONON) must avoid to live up to their long-term ambitions for the brand… [Revenue growth targets] cannot take precedence over sustained brand health. This is a difficult balancing act, one that we have seen industry peers struggle to navigate.”*
In the two years since the initiation was published, On has kept making progress in its key category - running shoes - which accounts for >80% of its revenues. This is the primary driver of FY26e revenues of ~3.5 billion Swiss francs (CHF), or ~$4.3 billion at current exchange rates – **nearly 5x larger** than On’s revenue base five years earlier. [Over that same period](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/nike-conditioning-phase), annual Footwear revenues at Nike increased by ~5% *cumulative*, to ~$29.5 billion.
[In the most recent quarter](https://investors.on-running.com/news/news-details/2026/On-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx), On reported mid-20’s (%) constant currency revenue growth, led by strength in Asia-Pacific (APAC) and mid-50’s (%) CC revenue growth in the Apparel category - as [co-CEO Caspar Coppetti](https://investors.on-running.com/news/news-details/2026/On-Co-Founders-to-Lead-Next-Chapter-of-Growth-as-Co-CEOs/default.aspx) put it on the quarterly call, “continuing our strategy of growing from toe to head”.
APAC, led by China, is becoming an increasingly important geography for On: as shown below, the region accounted for more than 20% of On’s Q1 FY26 revenue mix, compared to a mid-single digit percentage in FY22.
"The Most Premium Brand In Sports"
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