TSOH Investment ResearchCodex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 07-09 18:31:34时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07-09 19:09:20回填·⚡ 决策 07-10 13:01:58·109.1 天前
TSOH 文章复盘耐克 FY26 压力并表达对管理层转型的长期看法
这是一篇投资研究观点文章，核心内容是复盘耐克 FY26 收入、利润率、经典鞋款收缩、中国和关税等既有压力，并非公司公告、订单、指引上修或新产品催化。
📄 原文TSOH Investment Research↗ 原文
Nike: Conditioning Phase
*Note: Access all prior Nike (NKE) research [on the TSOH website](https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/nke).* From “**[Nik…
不做 耐克（NKE.US）
单篇研究文章主要复盘旧财务压力和长期转型观点，没有新增公司公告、业绩 surprise、订单、产品或可量化利润增量，无法形成短周期正期望交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-09 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 这是一篇投资研究观点文章，核心内容是复盘耐克 FY26 收入、利润率、经典鞋款收缩、中国和关税等既有压力，并非公司公告、订单、指引上修或新产品催化。
- 文章对 Elliott Hill 领导下的长期改善持正面态度，但没有给出新的可量化收入、利润或现金流增量，无法形成短周期事件交易。
主要风险
- 若后续耐克官方披露明确指引上修、库存改善或核心品类重加速，需要重新评估。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,709 字
*Note: Access all prior Nike (NKE) research [on the TSOH website](https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/nke).*
From “**[Nike: Fighting Back](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/nike-fighting-back)**” (April 2026):
*“While the near term picture is dominated by a barrage of financial pressures – the Classics pullback, China struggles, tariffs, etc. – I think these insiders have bought Nike shares because they believe the long-term trajectory for the business and the brand is much improved given the changes that have been implemented under Elliott Hill’s leadership over the past 18 months…”*
From a financial perspective, [FY26](/api/research-feeds-db/file/tsoh_205984499/5e9d6caefc846d7d2dbbb42f.pdf) was a terrible year for Nike.
Revenues of ~$46.4 billion were nearly $5 billion lower than three years earlier, adjusted EBIT margins were down by half compared to the trailing ten-year average, and adjusted EPS fell to levels first eclipsed in FY15.
But *today’s* results are largely reflective of *yesterday’s* mistakes.
I believe that Nike is heading in the right direction under CEO Elliott Hill’s leadership, but it has required meaningful change. One notable development has been the **>$4 billion** revenue reduction from [their classics footwear franchises](https://youtu.be/kpnBnrq8Q7Q?si=KaXMa5kYQRZ4y3dV&t=46), with roughly half of that impact realized in FY26; this resulted in minimal Footwear revenue growth for Nike over the past five years, a product category that historically drove mid-to-high single digit per annum (%) gains.
From “**[Nike: Fighting Back](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/nike-fighting-back)**” (April 2026):
*“While the near term picture is dominated by a barrage of financial pressures – the Classics pullback, China struggles, tariffs, etc. – I think these insiders have bought Nike shares because they believe the long-term trajectory for the business and the brand is much improved given the changes that have been implemented under Elliott Hill’s leadership over the past 18 months…”*
From a financial perspective, [FY26](/api/research-feeds-db/file/tsoh_205984499/5e9d6caefc846d7d2dbbb42f.pdf) was a terrible year for Nike.
Revenues of ~$46.4 billion were nearly $5 billion lower than three years earlier, adjusted EBIT margins were down by half compared to the trailing ten-year average, and adjusted EPS fell to levels first eclipsed in FY15.
But *today’s* results are largely reflective of *yesterday’s* mistakes.
I believe that Nike is heading in the right direction under CEO Elliott Hill’s leadership, but it has required meaningful change. One notable development has been the **>$4 billion** revenue reduction from [their classics footwear franchises](https://youtu.be/kpnBnrq8Q7Q?si=KaXMa5kYQRZ4y3dV&t=46), with roughly half of that impact realized in FY26; this resulted in minimal Footwear revenue growth for Nike over the past five years, a product category that historically drove mid-to-high single digit per annum (%) gains.
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