The Bear CaveCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:30:40时区推断·⟳ 抓取 23:13:20·⚡ 决策 08-23 23:15:01 +1m41s·64.7 天前
The Bear Cave周报汇总多只美股做空报告和高管离职,Flotek合同取消已提前公开并重定价
本条The Bear Cave周报对可交易标的没有提供新的、未被市场消化的公司级事实;最强的FTK负面催化已由Wolfpack和公司SEC披露提前公开,并已出现大幅价格重定价。
📄 原文The Bear Cave↗ 原文
The Bear Cave #340
Welcome to The Bear Cave! The last premium articles for paid readers were: “[Problems at Tenable (TENB)](https://thebea…
不做 Flotek Industries(FTK.US)
不做Flotek Industries(FTK.US):负面合同取消事实重大但已由8月17日Wolfpack报告和8月19日公司8-K公开,股价到8月21日已较8月14日跌约31%,The Bear Cave本条没有新增事实,追空风险回报不足。
不做 Aeva Technologies(AEVA.US)
不做Aeva Technologies(AEVA.US):仅为转述Fugazi做空观点,缺少本条新增可核验事实、量级和行情验证。
不做 Macy's(M.US)
不做Macy's(M.US):Bristlemoon观点是8月早些时候旧报告,当前周报无新增催化。
不做 DraftKings(DKNG.US)
不做DraftKings(DKNG.US):预测市场冲击属于长期观点,不是可量化的短线公司级新增事实。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
文章核心是做空观点和离职清单汇总。FTK的PREPA合同取消是其中最强负面事实,但公开链条显示Wolfpack报告在8月17日已传播,Flotek 8-K在8月19日确认PREPA终止,FTK到8月21日已较8月14日收盘下跌约31%。当前信号没有新增金额、官方进展或反证,继续追空的边际edge不足。
消息传播链
- Wolfpack报告已称Flotek的400百万美元PREPA合同取消,约占57% backlog,是本次周报引用的核心负面事实。市场反应:FTK 2026-08-17下跌约20%。
- TheFly同日扩散Wolfpack做空报告并提到FTK盘中下跌约23%。市场反应:FTK当日收于28.66美元,跌20.01%。
- Flotek披露PREPA于2026-08-18送达立即终止PPOA的正式通知,理由包括履约保证未提交及FOMB撤销批准。市场反应:FTK 2026-08-19继续下跌6.85%。
- The Bear Cave周报复述Wolfpack对FTK的报告,并列示其他做空报告和高管离职事项,没有给FTK新增官方事实。市场反应:周日美股闭市,无法形成即时成交。
关键理由
- FTK的400百万美元PREPA合同约等于其当前约8.99亿美元市值的45%,且公开资料称约占2027至2030年backlog的57%,基本面负面量级确实重大。
- 但该负面量级在2026-08-17做空报告和2026-08-19公司8-K后已经公开,FTK股价从35.83美元跌至24.67美元,短线重定价已经发生。
- Aeva、Macy's和DraftKings段落均为观点转述或旧报告,没有达到独立公司级新增催化。
主要风险
- 若FTK后续披露诉讼、索赔或指引下调,负面重估可能继续,但这不是本条周报新增事实。
- FTK已大幅下跌后追空容易遇到技术反弹或公司澄清,风险回报不如首发窗口。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-17 · 影响 weakens
Flotek曾称PREPA尚未向公司送达正式终止并重申2026年全年指引,随后8-K确认正式终止;反证不足以推翻负面方向,但提高追空后的反弹风险。
检索:Flotek PREPA termination company response guidance reaffirmed August 2026 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-21 · 影响 weakens
FTK已连续多日下跌,当前周报不是首发,做空入场点明显滞后。
检索:FTK stock price August 17 2026 Wolfpack short report reaction 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例证据不足叠加当前price-in高,最终不追空FTK,也不对其他被点名公司开仓。
方向:做空报告揭示重大合同取消这类事件方向通常偏空,但当前不是首发窗口。
涨幅量级:未能调用event_study作正式同类样本测算;仅从FTK自身本轮价格反应看,主要重定价已在8月17日至21日发生。
形态:本条属于二次周报汇总而非首发做空报告,二次传播阶段追空的见光死和反弹风险上升。
原文全文
展开原文 · 7,545 字
Welcome to The Bear Cave! The last premium articles for paid readers were: “[Problems at Tenable (TENB)](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-tenable-tenb)” and “[Problems at Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (GOF](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-guggenheim-strategic)).” Our next special investigation is scheduled for Thursday, September 3.
[Subscribe now](https://thebearcave.substack.com/subscribe?)
## ***New Activist Reports***
Wolfpack Research [published](/api/research-feeds-db/file/bearcave_212368650/af1ed6a33f345a1d52599f58.pdf) on **Flotek Industries** (NYSE: FTK — $894 million), revealing that the company had not told investors that its $400 million PREPA power contract in Puerto Rico had been cancelled. Days later, the company shared this news in an SEC filing. Wolfpack estimated that this would wipe out over 50% of the company’s backlog. According to Wolfpack, Flotek had been ripped off by a partner whose leader had a criminal record.
Fugazi Research [published](https://www.fugaziresearch.com/p/aeva-ridiculous-valuation-for-a-bleeding) on **Aeva Technologies** (NYSE: AEVA — $1.3 billion), calling it “a bleeding startup masquerading as AI.” Fugazi argues Aeva survives on serial partnership announcements and constant dilution, and flags approximately $11.9 million of insider selling into the rally that followed its August AI-data-center announcement. Fugazi writes:
**
*“Aeva has spent nearly a decade announcing lidar partnerships, hemorrhaging capital, and selling stock; the latest hyperscaler optics narrative does not change the math.”*
Bristlemoon Research [published](https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/are-department-stores-finally-shortable) on Macy’s (NYSE: M — $6 billion) earlier in August, arguing that department stores are “melting ice cubes” that have become “attractive shorts” as their valuations have gotten more expensive. Investors are “over-extrapolating” Macy’s recent comp improvement, Bristlemoon argues, writing that the company may face a new margin headwind driven by transportation inflation.
## ***Notable Recent Resignations or Apparent Departures***
Notable executive departures disclosed in the past week include:
-
Chief Executive Officer of **L3Harris Technologies **(NYSE: LHX — $49.7 billion) departed with immediate effect after the board discovered violations of the company’s Code of Conduct. He had previously been axed as CEO-elect of Lockheed Martin in 2012 over a relationship with a subordinate colleague. The Wall Street Journal [wrote](https://www.wsj.com/business/women-at-l3harris-shared-concerns-about-ceos-behavior-years-before-ouster-966010ab) this week that women at the company had shared concerns about the CEO’s behavior for “years.”
-
Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer of **Ameresco **(NYSE: AMRC — $1.3 billion) is stepping down in a month, and the General Counsel resigned “effective immediately.” The exits follow an undisclosed VP of Finance departure in May and a 2022 activist short report questioning the company’s accounting.
-
The Chief Operating Officer of **Viking Therapeutics** (NASDAQ: VKTX — $3.95 billion) disappeared from the company’s website with no further disclosure. The VP of Clinical Operations similarly vanished from the site in February.
-
Chief Financial Officer of **Boston Beer **(NYSE: SAM — $1.9 billion) [informed](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/949870/000119312526359163/sam-20260817.htm) the company on August 17 that he was stepping down and will leave September 30. The board launched a formal search for a permanent replacement while naming an interim CFO.
-
Chief Operating Officer of **Merit Medical Systems **(Nasdaq: MMSI — $5.4 billion) [gave notice](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/856982/000085698226000047/mmsi-20260814x8k.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com) on August 18 of his resignation “for good reason,” effective March 2027, days after the company eliminated his position in a reorganization.
*Unannounced departures courtesy of [Canary Data](http://www.canarydata.ai/).*
## ***News of the Week***
*The Entrepreneur Behind The Bear Cave Newsletter* ([Raging Capital Ventures](https://ragingcapitalventures.com/the-entrepreneur-behind-the-bear-cave-newsletter/))
***Edwin Dorsey***: In my opinion, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is in a lot of long-term trouble because of prediction markets, which have several structural advantages. Many admit users at age 18, can reach customers beyond traditional sportsbook jurisdictions, and are distributed through third-party interfaces such as Robinhood. They also have a superior model often with better prices, no betting limits, and no desire to ban winning bettors.
In addition, prediction markets have billions in VC dollars to spend on acquiring new customers, and some operators, such as Novig, are targeting DraftKings’ core base of recreational bettors.
The competitive dynamic between prediction markets and DraftKings reminds me of Netflix versus Blockbuster in the mid-2000s.
…I imagine a future where an “expert” is someone who consistently outperforms the prediction markets, rather than someone with a certain educational pedigree who sounds smart on TV. I predict that millions of Americans will buy hurricane, flood, or wildfire insurance on prediction markets specialized to their Sub-ZIP codes with resolution based on hyperlocal weather data. I hope valuable data on future markets like “Which degree will be highest paying in 2035?” or “Which cities will have >4% GDP growth?” will help people make better decisions about what to study or where to live.
I’m an active and consistently profitable trader on Kalshi and see tremendous opportunity to build out a successful trading operation, a new prediction market focused newsletter, and prediction market research tools on my platform[ HighgroundResearch.com](http://highgroundresearch.com).”
***Check out Edwin’s prediction market analytics site [here](http://.).***
## ***Tweets of the Week***
@Activ8Insights who provides significant detail on the impersonation attempt. A lot of roads seem to lead to 1xBet. We identified 1xBet as a SRAD customer that has links to","username":"muddywatersre","name":"MuddyWatersResearch","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1398802827/mw_logo_normal.jpg","date":"2026-08-20T14:40:16.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Someone posed as one short seller to get another short seller's research de-indexed from Google. \n\nWe followed the trail. It leads to a gambling operator.\n\nhttps://t.co/YL61D8aSEJ","username":"Activ8Insights","name":"Activ8Insights","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1946932778009812992/sHsEfcfA_normal.jpg"},"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":7,"like_count":80,"impression_count":26465,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
Until next week,
The Bear Cave
##### **New? *****[Sign Up Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/)***
##### **Got Feedback? Just Hit Reply**
##### **The Bear Cave is Not Investment Advice. See Full Disclosures [Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/about). Based on Hunterbrook Media’s reporting, Hunterbrook Capital is short $GOF and $TENB at the time of publication. Positions may change. This article is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.**
New Activist Reports, Recent Resignations, and Tweets of the Week
[Subscribe now](https://thebearcave.substack.com/subscribe?)
## ***New Activist Reports***
Wolfpack Research [published](/api/research-feeds-db/file/bearcave_212368650/af1ed6a33f345a1d52599f58.pdf) on **Flotek Industries** (NYSE: FTK — $894 million), revealing that the company had not told investors that its $400 million PREPA power contract in Puerto Rico had been cancelled. Days later, the company shared this news in an SEC filing. Wolfpack estimated that this would wipe out over 50% of the company’s backlog. According to Wolfpack, Flotek had been ripped off by a partner whose leader had a criminal record.
Fugazi Research [published](https://www.fugaziresearch.com/p/aeva-ridiculous-valuation-for-a-bleeding) on **Aeva Technologies** (NYSE: AEVA — $1.3 billion), calling it “a bleeding startup masquerading as AI.” Fugazi argues Aeva survives on serial partnership announcements and constant dilution, and flags approximately $11.9 million of insider selling into the rally that followed its August AI-data-center announcement. Fugazi writes:
**
*“Aeva has spent nearly a decade announcing lidar partnerships, hemorrhaging capital, and selling stock; the latest hyperscaler optics narrative does not change the math.”*
Bristlemoon Research [published](https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/are-department-stores-finally-shortable) on Macy’s (NYSE: M — $6 billion) earlier in August, arguing that department stores are “melting ice cubes” that have become “attractive shorts” as their valuations have gotten more expensive. Investors are “over-extrapolating” Macy’s recent comp improvement, Bristlemoon argues, writing that the company may face a new margin headwind driven by transportation inflation.
## ***Notable Recent Resignations or Apparent Departures***
Notable executive departures disclosed in the past week include:
-
Chief Executive Officer of **L3Harris Technologies **(NYSE: LHX — $49.7 billion) departed with immediate effect after the board discovered violations of the company’s Code of Conduct. He had previously been axed as CEO-elect of Lockheed Martin in 2012 over a relationship with a subordinate colleague. The Wall Street Journal [wrote](https://www.wsj.com/business/women-at-l3harris-shared-concerns-about-ceos-behavior-years-before-ouster-966010ab) this week that women at the company had shared concerns about the CEO’s behavior for “years.”
-
Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer of **Ameresco **(NYSE: AMRC — $1.3 billion) is stepping down in a month, and the General Counsel resigned “effective immediately.” The exits follow an undisclosed VP of Finance departure in May and a 2022 activist short report questioning the company’s accounting.
-
The Chief Operating Officer of **Viking Therapeutics** (NASDAQ: VKTX — $3.95 billion) disappeared from the company’s website with no further disclosure. The VP of Clinical Operations similarly vanished from the site in February.
-
Chief Financial Officer of **Boston Beer **(NYSE: SAM — $1.9 billion) [informed](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/949870/000119312526359163/sam-20260817.htm) the company on August 17 that he was stepping down and will leave September 30. The board launched a formal search for a permanent replacement while naming an interim CFO.
-
Chief Operating Officer of **Merit Medical Systems **(Nasdaq: MMSI — $5.4 billion) [gave notice](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/856982/000085698226000047/mmsi-20260814x8k.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com) on August 18 of his resignation “for good reason,” effective March 2027, days after the company eliminated his position in a reorganization.
*Unannounced departures courtesy of [Canary Data](http://www.canarydata.ai/).*
## ***News of the Week***
*The Entrepreneur Behind The Bear Cave Newsletter* ([Raging Capital Ventures](https://ragingcapitalventures.com/the-entrepreneur-behind-the-bear-cave-newsletter/))
***Edwin Dorsey***: In my opinion, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is in a lot of long-term trouble because of prediction markets, which have several structural advantages. Many admit users at age 18, can reach customers beyond traditional sportsbook jurisdictions, and are distributed through third-party interfaces such as Robinhood. They also have a superior model often with better prices, no betting limits, and no desire to ban winning bettors.
In addition, prediction markets have billions in VC dollars to spend on acquiring new customers, and some operators, such as Novig, are targeting DraftKings’ core base of recreational bettors.
The competitive dynamic between prediction markets and DraftKings reminds me of Netflix versus Blockbuster in the mid-2000s.
…I imagine a future where an “expert” is someone who consistently outperforms the prediction markets, rather than someone with a certain educational pedigree who sounds smart on TV. I predict that millions of Americans will buy hurricane, flood, or wildfire insurance on prediction markets specialized to their Sub-ZIP codes with resolution based on hyperlocal weather data. I hope valuable data on future markets like “Which degree will be highest paying in 2035?” or “Which cities will have >4% GDP growth?” will help people make better decisions about what to study or where to live.
I’m an active and consistently profitable trader on Kalshi and see tremendous opportunity to build out a successful trading operation, a new prediction market focused newsletter, and prediction market research tools on my platform[ HighgroundResearch.com](http://highgroundresearch.com).”
***Check out Edwin’s prediction market analytics site [here](http://.).***
## ***Tweets of the Week***
@Activ8Insights who provides significant detail on the impersonation attempt. A lot of roads seem to lead to 1xBet. We identified 1xBet as a SRAD customer that has links to","username":"muddywatersre","name":"MuddyWatersResearch","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1398802827/mw_logo_normal.jpg","date":"2026-08-20T14:40:16.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Someone posed as one short seller to get another short seller's research de-indexed from Google. \n\nWe followed the trail. It leads to a gambling operator.\n\nhttps://t.co/YL61D8aSEJ","username":"Activ8Insights","name":"Activ8Insights","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1946932778009812992/sHsEfcfA_normal.jpg"},"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":7,"like_count":80,"impression_count":26465,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
Until next week,
The Bear Cave
##### **New? *****[Sign Up Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/)***
##### **Got Feedback? Just Hit Reply**
##### **The Bear Cave is Not Investment Advice. See Full Disclosures [Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/about). Based on Hunterbrook Media’s reporting, Hunterbrook Capital is short $GOF and $TENB at the time of publication. Positions may change. This article is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.**
New Activist Reports, Recent Resignations, and Tweets of the Week
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。