TMT BreakoutCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05:43:32时区推断·⟳ 抓取 05:50:20回填·⚡ 决策 07-07 05:51:56·112.4 天前
TMT Breakout 盘后复盘称英伟达 Kyber/NVL144 延期传闻已驱动 AI 半导体分化
这不是一手公告或新增确认，而是盘后研究作者对当日已发生价格反应的市场复盘。
📄 原文TMT Breakout↗ 原文
TMTB EOD Wrap
What happened to all the HOT AI Summer vibes while I was gone? I’m out for a few days and come back to an AI semis mark…
不做 超威半导体（AMD.US）
同向逻辑存在，但正文已记录 AMD 当日 +6.6%，且缺少英伟达或供应链一手确认，盘后追高没有可验证新增 edge。
不做 Credo Technology（CRDO.US）
CRDO 是最直接二阶受益标的之一，但正文已记录当日 +10%，且没有新增订单或收入量级，当前不追。
不做 Astera Labs（ALAB.US）
ALAB 受益链条偏二阶，且正文已记录当日 +6.5%，在缺少一手确认和量级核查前不做。
不做 博通（AVGO.US）
博通市值较大，Kyber 延期传闻只是相对竞争叙事改善，未给出订单或收入增量，且股价已当日 +4%。
不做 英伟达（NVDA.US）
Kyber 延期传闻对英伟达叙事偏负面，但公司回应路线图完整，信号不是一手确认，且做空红线不满足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-06 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 这不是一手公告或新增确认，而是盘后研究作者对当日已发生价格反应的市场复盘。
- 核心催化是 Kyber/NVL144 延期传闻，正文已经写明 AMD、CRDO、ALAB、AVGO 等标的当日分别上涨约 4% 到 10%，短线 edge 已被当日交易消化。
- 英伟达已回应 AI chip roadmap remains intact，传闻本身仍缺少官方可交易确认，不能在盘后追逐二阶链条。
主要风险
- 如果后续出现英伟达、供应链或主流媒体对 Kyber 延期的正式确认，AMD、CRDO、ALAB、AVGO 的二阶逻辑需要重新评估。
- 当前没有新增订单、收入、利润或供需约束的量级信息，无法把传闻映射成可回测的新增基本面增量。
原文全文
展开原文 · 8,985 字
What happened to all the HOT AI Summer vibes while I was gone? I’m out for a few days and come back to an AI semis market where SNDK can’t even manage to be green on a day Semis are up 2%. We’re still feeling into the “new” current market environment as we get back up to speed and plugged in before taking any strong opinions, but what’s seemingly evident is this is an environment different than April/May/early June, one where bulls are finding it tougher to hand-wave the bears away with their usual “token demand growth continues unabated” and “open source is good for all picks and shovels” arguments. Does that environment last? We’re still feeling it out. As for now, sharpening our r/r math on certain names that have been hit, being a bit more aggressive and mindful on any short-term shifts in narratives on names, and expecting to see continued L/S bifurcation within the AI semis space. Chat GPT-5.6 on the docket tomorrow.
Today, QQQs finished up 1.4% with s**emis +2%** outperforming although semis underperformed throughout the trading day, trailing QQQs by 1.5%+ after the open with **Miners +5%, HDDs +6%, & AI Power +3%** leading the way higher. A lot of single name moves driven by the news that Kyber NVL144 were being delayed by more than 12 months caused by midplane yield issues even though **NVDA** came out and said their AI chip “roadmap remains intact.”
More details on individual moves/read-throughs below.
Outside of semis, security continues to lead the way in software as names like **OKTA, PANW, and CRWD** all hitting 52wk highs after a couple of positive sell-side checks early which called out improving demand.
Good to be back. Let’s get to the good stuff…
# **AI/SEMIS**
As mentioned above, a lot of moves today based on the Kyber delay news:
-
**NVDA +37bps** underperformed all day while **AMD +6.6%** seemingly the big winner from the news as MI500 now lands against a dual -die Rubin Ultra in a legacy-style rack instead of the quad-die Kyber. Assuming Kyber gets pushed to 2028 that means Mi500 “MegaPod” which will likely have 256 GPU packages and 64 Verano CPUs, expected late 2027 would arrive earlier than the quad die Kyber and allow AMD to pitch a larger coherent scale-up domain (this all assumes AMD doesn’t run into their production issues). Said differently: Kyber and optical NVLink were supposed to be the big moat wideners for NVDA in ‘27 as no one else could physically build it, so if this news is true allows AMD mi-series to feel more on par. Near-term narrative set up here on AMD seems solid heading into print and AI day on 22nd. Kyber pushout also helps **AVGO +4%** ASIC offerings look more competitive (also helped by the AAPL renewal).
-
**CRDO +10%** arguably most direct winner as more NVLink copper for longer means more AECs for longer while their optical DSP/ZF optics portfolio helped by pluggables
-
**ALAB +6.5%** is helped by selling more CXL/Scorpio PCIe switches, Taurus AECs, and retimers (also helped by the Digitimes article calling out strong Trainium 3 demand. If Kyber pushout makes ASICs more attractive, this would also benefit ALAB as ALAB’s content per GPU higher on custom XPU (Trainium) platforms vs. NVDAs.
-
**LITE +40bps/GLW -1%/COHR +1%**: This would push out the CPO adoption timeline out a year and extend runway for pluggables. For **LITE** means more EML lasers but also means CPO content pushed out. **COHR** sells both the finished pluggable transceivers and the InP/EML lasers inside everyone's modules so a pluggable extension would boost module volumes through 2027–28.
-
**ASML +3%** as Bernstein raised PT arguing accelerating adoption of High-NA EUV and rising lithography intensity will drive stronger long-term equipment demand., saying they expect DRAM manufacturers to adopt High-NA ahead of logic beginning in 2027, with logic following in 2028-30, and forecasts lithography intensity to rise from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028. They model in 42.7B Euros of EUV revs by 2030.
-
**ADI +3%** helped by reports they send customers a letter saying delivery times for some products extending up to six months and asking customers to place orders ahead of time accordingly. Rest of analogs also strong: **STM +4.5%; TXN/MCHP/ON +3-4%**
-
Memory a bit weaker ahead of SK Hynix’s ADR launch later this week:
-
HDDs stronger **WDC +7%/STX +6%**
-
**BE +6%**: all I saw was the Jefferies note raising PT and #s slightly.
-
**CRWV +6% vs NBIS -1% i**nteresting…
-
Other notable underperformers: **CBRS -6%; AMAT -1.7%; WOLF -1.4%**
_via @shanumathew93 on X_
# **INTERNET**
-
**RDDT +3%**
Guggenheim was also out positive saying June data points to continued user growth momentum for Reddit in 2Q, with June global audience reach up 11.8% y/y and international reach accelerating 19.1% y/y despite tougher comparisons. 3p data pointing to a dd beat for Q2. Stock acting better over the last week — we’re not involved but we get why: user growth data seemingly holding up fine while they typically always put up a big top line number & investors looking towards 2H of the year where we could hear some resolutions around GOOGL/OAI renewals or the Anthropic case. Also doesn’t hurt that mid cap/internet factor has been bid over the last week
-
**GOOGL +2% / META +3%** leading hypers higher while AMZN +60bps lagged. Wang was out saying METEA’s models caught up to Chat GPT 5.5 while Semianalysis also defended the move to sell compute. We flagged this in our morning wrap on META from TMTB Slack, which we thought made some good points around the META compute debate last week:
-
DASH -2% and UBER -3% faded on this article:
**
[Google Maps](https://www.techradar.com/tag/google-maps) may soon offer you the option of ordering food from a restaurant ready to pick up, as well as directing you to that restaurant on the map, according to hidden code found inside the latest version of [Google](https://www.techradar.com/tag/google) Maps for Android.
The code was found by the team at [Android Authority](https://www.androidauthority.com/google-maps-food-order-3684065/), and includes text strings such as “ask Maps to order food”, “say what you’re craving”, and “Maps will order for you — even while you’re on the go”.
This feature isn’t live yet, so it’s difficult to say exactly how it would work, but it certainly looks as though you would be able to quickly request something on the menu at a restaurant and then pick it up yourself.
# **SOFTWARE**
-
**DDOG -2%** hung in fairly well after Bernstein’s “tactical” downgrade where they actually raised LT estimates, but said growth could disappoint beginning in Q3/Q4 as ex-AI demand (~85% of revenue) flattens and AI lab growth starts to normalize. Bernstein expects Q4 revenue growth to slow roughly 500bps to ~29% y/y, well below buyside expectations for 30%+ growth into next year and peak growth in the high-30% to 40%+ range. **SNOW +75bps** didn’t budge.
-
**OKTA +5%** to new highs as Scotia upgraded to buy saying co is an underappreciated AI beneficiary through expanding endpoint security, AI runtime protection and Purple AI. Rest of cyber also strong on that Scotia note where they also upgraded S and CHKP and Cowen calling out positive AI driven cyber security demand: **FTNT +4%; CRWD +3%; PANW +3%; S +3.5%**
-
**MNDY +3.5%** as Wells Fargo was out positive after speaking with Monday.com’s largest global partner, who indicated 2Q performed better than expected, driven by stronger renewals and improving execution as the quarter progressed. Partner noted ow 90s of added ARR came from renewals (vs. a more typical ~80%), with customers increasingly purchasing AI credits alongside broader platform adoption
-
**MSFT -1%** as Wolfe cut #s and PT on higher memory costs pressuring NT margins saying they now expect negative FY27 cash and lower gross margins.
-
Some bifurcation in app sw: **TEAM/WDAY/NOW +1-2%** while **ADBE -75bps** and **SAP -1.3%.**
# **ELSEWHERE**
-
**TTWO +1.3%** continues to act better now +20% in a couple weeks as investors and gamers await Trailer #3 and any update on pre-orders, which continue to point to 50M+ units according to early 3p checks.
-
**AAPL +1.3%** continues to rally getting close to new highs again.
That’s all for today - see you tomorrow!
#
Today, QQQs finished up 1.4% with s**emis +2%** outperforming although semis underperformed throughout the trading day, trailing QQQs by 1.5%+ after the open with **Miners +5%, HDDs +6%, & AI Power +3%** leading the way higher. A lot of single name moves driven by the news that Kyber NVL144 were being delayed by more than 12 months caused by midplane yield issues even though **NVDA** came out and said their AI chip “roadmap remains intact.”
More details on individual moves/read-throughs below.
Outside of semis, security continues to lead the way in software as names like **OKTA, PANW, and CRWD** all hitting 52wk highs after a couple of positive sell-side checks early which called out improving demand.
Good to be back. Let’s get to the good stuff…
# **AI/SEMIS**
As mentioned above, a lot of moves today based on the Kyber delay news:
-
**NVDA +37bps** underperformed all day while **AMD +6.6%** seemingly the big winner from the news as MI500 now lands against a dual -die Rubin Ultra in a legacy-style rack instead of the quad-die Kyber. Assuming Kyber gets pushed to 2028 that means Mi500 “MegaPod” which will likely have 256 GPU packages and 64 Verano CPUs, expected late 2027 would arrive earlier than the quad die Kyber and allow AMD to pitch a larger coherent scale-up domain (this all assumes AMD doesn’t run into their production issues). Said differently: Kyber and optical NVLink were supposed to be the big moat wideners for NVDA in ‘27 as no one else could physically build it, so if this news is true allows AMD mi-series to feel more on par. Near-term narrative set up here on AMD seems solid heading into print and AI day on 22nd. Kyber pushout also helps **AVGO +4%** ASIC offerings look more competitive (also helped by the AAPL renewal).
-
**CRDO +10%** arguably most direct winner as more NVLink copper for longer means more AECs for longer while their optical DSP/ZF optics portfolio helped by pluggables
-
**ALAB +6.5%** is helped by selling more CXL/Scorpio PCIe switches, Taurus AECs, and retimers (also helped by the Digitimes article calling out strong Trainium 3 demand. If Kyber pushout makes ASICs more attractive, this would also benefit ALAB as ALAB’s content per GPU higher on custom XPU (Trainium) platforms vs. NVDAs.
-
**LITE +40bps/GLW -1%/COHR +1%**: This would push out the CPO adoption timeline out a year and extend runway for pluggables. For **LITE** means more EML lasers but also means CPO content pushed out. **COHR** sells both the finished pluggable transceivers and the InP/EML lasers inside everyone's modules so a pluggable extension would boost module volumes through 2027–28.
-
**ASML +3%** as Bernstein raised PT arguing accelerating adoption of High-NA EUV and rising lithography intensity will drive stronger long-term equipment demand., saying they expect DRAM manufacturers to adopt High-NA ahead of logic beginning in 2027, with logic following in 2028-30, and forecasts lithography intensity to rise from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028. They model in 42.7B Euros of EUV revs by 2030.
-
**ADI +3%** helped by reports they send customers a letter saying delivery times for some products extending up to six months and asking customers to place orders ahead of time accordingly. Rest of analogs also strong: **STM +4.5%; TXN/MCHP/ON +3-4%**
-
Memory a bit weaker ahead of SK Hynix’s ADR launch later this week:
-
HDDs stronger **WDC +7%/STX +6%**
-
**BE +6%**: all I saw was the Jefferies note raising PT and #s slightly.
-
**CRWV +6% vs NBIS -1% i**nteresting…
-
Other notable underperformers: **CBRS -6%; AMAT -1.7%; WOLF -1.4%**
_via @shanumathew93 on X_
# **INTERNET**
-
**RDDT +3%**
Guggenheim was also out positive saying June data points to continued user growth momentum for Reddit in 2Q, with June global audience reach up 11.8% y/y and international reach accelerating 19.1% y/y despite tougher comparisons. 3p data pointing to a dd beat for Q2. Stock acting better over the last week — we’re not involved but we get why: user growth data seemingly holding up fine while they typically always put up a big top line number & investors looking towards 2H of the year where we could hear some resolutions around GOOGL/OAI renewals or the Anthropic case. Also doesn’t hurt that mid cap/internet factor has been bid over the last week
-
**GOOGL +2% / META +3%** leading hypers higher while AMZN +60bps lagged. Wang was out saying METEA’s models caught up to Chat GPT 5.5 while Semianalysis also defended the move to sell compute. We flagged this in our morning wrap on META from TMTB Slack, which we thought made some good points around the META compute debate last week:
-
DASH -2% and UBER -3% faded on this article:
**
[Google Maps](https://www.techradar.com/tag/google-maps) may soon offer you the option of ordering food from a restaurant ready to pick up, as well as directing you to that restaurant on the map, according to hidden code found inside the latest version of [Google](https://www.techradar.com/tag/google) Maps for Android.
The code was found by the team at [Android Authority](https://www.androidauthority.com/google-maps-food-order-3684065/), and includes text strings such as “ask Maps to order food”, “say what you’re craving”, and “Maps will order for you — even while you’re on the go”.
This feature isn’t live yet, so it’s difficult to say exactly how it would work, but it certainly looks as though you would be able to quickly request something on the menu at a restaurant and then pick it up yourself.
# **SOFTWARE**
-
**DDOG -2%** hung in fairly well after Bernstein’s “tactical” downgrade where they actually raised LT estimates, but said growth could disappoint beginning in Q3/Q4 as ex-AI demand (~85% of revenue) flattens and AI lab growth starts to normalize. Bernstein expects Q4 revenue growth to slow roughly 500bps to ~29% y/y, well below buyside expectations for 30%+ growth into next year and peak growth in the high-30% to 40%+ range. **SNOW +75bps** didn’t budge.
-
**OKTA +5%** to new highs as Scotia upgraded to buy saying co is an underappreciated AI beneficiary through expanding endpoint security, AI runtime protection and Purple AI. Rest of cyber also strong on that Scotia note where they also upgraded S and CHKP and Cowen calling out positive AI driven cyber security demand: **FTNT +4%; CRWD +3%; PANW +3%; S +3.5%**
-
**MNDY +3.5%** as Wells Fargo was out positive after speaking with Monday.com’s largest global partner, who indicated 2Q performed better than expected, driven by stronger renewals and improving execution as the quarter progressed. Partner noted ow 90s of added ARR came from renewals (vs. a more typical ~80%), with customers increasingly purchasing AI credits alongside broader platform adoption
-
**MSFT -1%** as Wolfe cut #s and PT on higher memory costs pressuring NT margins saying they now expect negative FY27 cash and lower gross margins.
-
Some bifurcation in app sw: **TEAM/WDAY/NOW +1-2%** while **ADBE -75bps** and **SAP -1.3%.**
# **ELSEWHERE**
-
**TTWO +1.3%** continues to act better now +20% in a couple weeks as investors and gamers await Trailer #3 and any update on pre-orders, which continue to point to 50M+ units according to early 3p checks.
-
**AAPL +1.3%** continues to rally getting close to new highs again.
That’s all for today - see you tomorrow!
#
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