The Bear CaveCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:30:06时区推断·⟳ 抓取 23:10:08·⚡ 决策 07-16 23:12:53 +2m45s·102.9 天前
The Bear Cave再发看空DraftKings，称Kalshi交易量扩张将继续侵蚀体育投注业务
The Bear Cave称Kalshi累计成交额已超过1000亿美元、周度名义成交约100亿美元，核心观点是预测市场的流动性、分发和产品广度正在削弱DraftKings体育投注护城河。
📄 原文The Bear Cave↗ 原文
Problems at DraftKings (DKNG) #4
Over the last year, The Bear Cave has published four articles about **DraftKings** (NASDAQ: DKNG — $12.5 billion), high…
不做 DraftKings（DKNG.US）
方向偏看空，但这是反复传播的Kalshi竞争叙事更新，DKNG近20日已跌12.3%、本次盘中仅小幅下跌；且未确认可借券，不能满足做空红线，不做，可考虑降低相关多头敞口。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- Bear Cave首次系统提出DraftKings面临Kalshi等预测市场竞争风险，说明本次不是全新主题。市场反应:正文称自首篇文章以来DKNG股价已下跌约40%。
- Bear Cave继续强化Kalshi执行超预期、DraftKings执行不足的看空框架。
- 本篇更新称Kalshi累计成交额超过1000亿美元、周度名义成交约100亿美元，认为风险仍未充分反映。市场反应:截至2026-07-16 15:11 UTC，DKNG.US报24.935美元，较前收跌1.25%。
- 媒体转述Bear Cave对Kalshi竞争压力的观点，显示该负面叙事已开始财经媒体扩散。
关键理由
- The Bear Cave称Kalshi累计成交额已超过1000亿美元、周度名义成交约100亿美元，核心观点是预测市场的流动性、分发和产品广度正在削弱DraftKings体育投注护城河。
- 这是一阶利空而非做多催化；DraftKings（DKNG.US）在事件抓取时盘中下跌约1.25%，近20日已跌12.3%，说明市场此前已在交易预测市场竞争压力。
- 量级上，Bear Cave指向的是长期用户与交易量迁移风险，但文章未给出DraftKings收入、利润或指引的新增下修数字，短线负面增量主要来自叙事强化而非新财务事实。
主要风险
- 做空红线未满足：行情工具未返回可借券字段，不能确认enable_short_sell和short_available_volume，因此不裸开空。
- 该看空主题从2025年9月起已被Bear Cave和多家媒体反复讨论，且股价已较首篇文章后显著下跌，继续追空容易遇到监管利好或反弹。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-16 · 影响 none
内部库未命中与本篇同日、足以强化做空的新卖方下修或公司基本面证伪证据。
检索:DraftKings Kalshi regulatory risk July 2026 analyst upgrade downgrade deposits prediction markets - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2025-10-01 · 影响 weakens
存在卖方将Kalshi竞争导致的下跌视为过度反应的相反观点，削弱裸开空的把握。
检索:Morgan Stanley buy weakness Flutter DraftKings Kalshi parlays market 原文 ↗
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(4 种)
- kb_search · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,250 字
Over the last year, The Bear Cave has published four articles about **DraftKings** (NASDAQ: DKNG — $12.5 billion), highlighting competitive risks posed by prediction markets like Kalshi:
-
“Problems at DraftKings (DKNG)” ([September 18, 2025](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-draftkings-dkng))
-
“More Problems at DraftKings (DKNG)” ([October 2, 2025](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/more-problems-at-draftkings-dkng))
-
“Betting on Tomorrow: A Primer on Prediction Markets” ([November 6, 2025](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/betting-on-tomorrow-a-primer-on-prediction))
-
“Even More Problems at DraftKings (DKNG)” ([February 5, 2026](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/even-more-problems-at-draftkings))
Since our first article, DraftKings stock has fallen ~40%. The Bear Cave believes the case against DraftKings is even more compelling today.
In February 2026, The Bear Cave [wrote](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/even-more-problems-at-draftkings):
Kalshi’s execution has exceeded expectations, while DraftKings continues to fall short. The Bear Cave believes the gap in execution and long-term business model disruption will become painfully obvious to DraftKings investors in the coming months.
Kalshi’s growth is fueled by ad campaigns, earned media, social virality and, above all, superior depth, breadth, and distribution compared to traditional online sportsbooks.
The results speak for themselves:
_(*February 2026* screenshot of Kalshi volume growth, [tracked by Dune](https://dune.com/datadashboards/kalshi-overview))_
Today, Kalshi’s execution looks even stronger: cumulative volume has exceeded $100 billion, and weekly notional volume is about $10 billion.
_(*July 15, 2026* screenshot of Kalshi volume growth, [tracked by Dune](https://dune.com/datadashboards/kalshi-overview))_
The Bear Cave believes that Kalshi’s growth will ultimately come at the expense of DraftKings, first slowly, then rapidly.
DraftKings investors have repeatedly dismissed the threat from prediction markets, arguing that:
-
Prediction markets have worse odds.
-
Prediction markets don’t have enough liquidity.
-
Prediction markets lack the distribution and customer base to reach a critical mass.
-
Prediction markets can’t handle live in-game betting.
-
Prediction markets can’t handle whales.
-
Prediction markets can’t do props.
-
Prediction markets can’t do parlays.
Now, investors believe prediction market risk is priced in.
The Bear Cave strongly disagrees.
***Disclosure: The Bear Cave is now owned by Hunterbrook Media. Hunterbrook Media’s investment affiliate, Hunterbrook Capital, does not have any positions related to this article at the time of publication. Positions may change at any time. Please see full disclosures [here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/disclaimer).***
-
“Problems at DraftKings (DKNG)” ([September 18, 2025](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-draftkings-dkng))
-
“More Problems at DraftKings (DKNG)” ([October 2, 2025](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/more-problems-at-draftkings-dkng))
-
“Betting on Tomorrow: A Primer on Prediction Markets” ([November 6, 2025](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/betting-on-tomorrow-a-primer-on-prediction))
-
“Even More Problems at DraftKings (DKNG)” ([February 5, 2026](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/even-more-problems-at-draftkings))
Since our first article, DraftKings stock has fallen ~40%. The Bear Cave believes the case against DraftKings is even more compelling today.
In February 2026, The Bear Cave [wrote](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/even-more-problems-at-draftkings):
Kalshi’s execution has exceeded expectations, while DraftKings continues to fall short. The Bear Cave believes the gap in execution and long-term business model disruption will become painfully obvious to DraftKings investors in the coming months.
Kalshi’s growth is fueled by ad campaigns, earned media, social virality and, above all, superior depth, breadth, and distribution compared to traditional online sportsbooks.
The results speak for themselves:
_(*February 2026* screenshot of Kalshi volume growth, [tracked by Dune](https://dune.com/datadashboards/kalshi-overview))_
Today, Kalshi’s execution looks even stronger: cumulative volume has exceeded $100 billion, and weekly notional volume is about $10 billion.
_(*July 15, 2026* screenshot of Kalshi volume growth, [tracked by Dune](https://dune.com/datadashboards/kalshi-overview))_
The Bear Cave believes that Kalshi’s growth will ultimately come at the expense of DraftKings, first slowly, then rapidly.
DraftKings investors have repeatedly dismissed the threat from prediction markets, arguing that:
-
Prediction markets have worse odds.
-
Prediction markets don’t have enough liquidity.
-
Prediction markets lack the distribution and customer base to reach a critical mass.
-
Prediction markets can’t handle live in-game betting.
-
Prediction markets can’t handle whales.
-
Prediction markets can’t do props.
-
Prediction markets can’t do parlays.
Now, investors believe prediction market risk is priced in.
The Bear Cave strongly disagrees.
***Disclosure: The Bear Cave is now owned by Hunterbrook Media. Hunterbrook Media’s investment affiliate, Hunterbrook Capital, does not have any positions related to this article at the time of publication. Positions may change at any time. Please see full disclosures [here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/disclaimer).***
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