The Bear CaveCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:30:12时区推断·⟳ 抓取 23:10:05回填·⚡ 决策 07-05 23:11:19·113.7 天前
The Bear Cave 周报汇总多家公司做空报告和高管离职信息，但本条本身不是新的单一可交易催化
这是周报型信息汇总，包含多个已由其他机构或公司公告先前发布的负面线索，并非针对单一标的的新一手催化。
📄 原文The Bear Cave↗ 原文
The Bear Cave #333
Welcome to The Bear Cave! Our last premium article was “[Problems at StepStone (STEP)](https://thebearcave.substack.com…
不做 StepStone Group（STEP.US）
本条只是周报复述既有调查，不是一手新增催化；未满足做空红线且未核借券，不能直接做空。
不做 Tarsus Pharmaceuticals（TARS.US）
负面方向明确但来源为做空报告摘要，非本条首发；未确认可借券和监管实锤，不能用周报触发 ENTER SHORT。
不做 Redwire（RDW.US）
本条仅摘要 Fugazi 观点，属于二次传播；没有新的确定性强空催化和借券确认。
不做 Lucid Group（LCID.US）
高管离职是负面背景，但缺少直接、可量化、短周期的收入或现金流冲击。
不做 Papa John’s（PZZA.US）
CFO 离职单独不足以构成强交易催化，且本条只是离职清单汇总。
不做 Freedom Holding Corp（FRHC.US）
CFO 即时离职偏负面但证据链不够，不能只凭周报清单开空。
另有 3 腿,见展开详情。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
其余 3 腿
不做 Five9（FIVN.US）
多名高管离职是风险信号，但缺少新增经营数据和借券确认，不满足直接交易条件。
不做 Abacus Global Management（ABX.US）
董事离职叠加既往做空质疑不足以直接下单，本条没有新的实锤信息。
不做 AppLovin（APP.US）
疑似未披露 SEC probe 是潜在重大风险，但本条为第三方新闻摘要；未做原始文件与借券核查，不能直接 ENTER SHORT。
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-05 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这是周报型信息汇总，包含多个已由其他机构或公司公告先前发布的负面线索，并非针对单一标的的新一手催化。
- 正文没有给出新的独家事实、金额修正、监管落地或公司确认，难以形成可回测的同向短线交易边界。
- 多数线索属于做空报告摘要、管理层离职清单或新闻链接，若要交易应回到各自原始报告/公告单独研判，而不是用本周报作为入场触发。
主要风险
- 若其中某一原始做空报告在市场尚未充分消化且借券可行，单独研究后可能形成做空机会，但本条周报不足以直接下单。
- 做空需要满足强催化、置信不低和可借券三条红线；本条未进行单标的借券与价格确认，因此不能输出 ENTER SHORT。
原文全文
展开原文 · 8,175 字
Welcome to The Bear Cave! Our last premium article was “[Problems at StepStone (STEP)](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-stepstone-step)” and our next special investigation for paid readers comes out Thursday, July 16.
The Bear Cave is [now owned by Hunterbrook Media](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/the-bear-cave-332). Readers will continue to receive two original deep-dive paywalled investigations in The Bear Cave each month, along with select Hunterbrook stories featuring additional content and analysis in The Bear Cave.
## ***New Activist Reports***
The Bear Cave [published](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-stepstone-step) an investigation in collaboration with Hunterbrook Media on **StepStone Group** (NASDAQ: STEP — $4.91 billion), a global private equity and private markets company. The investigation alleged StepStone’s growth has come, in part, from charging fees on unrealized private-asset gains and highlighted:
**
“Due to an ill-timed contract, StepStone must buy out the profits interests tied to that retail arm held by CH Equity Partners LLC, an entity controlled by SPW executives. Since April 1, CH Equity Partners LLC has the right to lock in a giant personal payday, using a formula tied to the private wealth arm’s paper marks. StepStone’s liability is now estimated at about $2.3 billion.”
Culper Research [published](https://x.com/CulperResearch/status/2072364873430827410?s=20) on **Tarsus Pharmaceuticals** (NASDAQ: TARS — $2.82 billion), a biopharmaceutical company focused on eye care. Culper alleged that Tarsus donates millions of dollars “to a nominally independent blepharitis fund” that primarily subsidizes the copays of its expensive XDEMVY eyedrop medication, potentially in violation of anti-kickback laws. Culper [wrote](https://x.com/CulperResearch/status/2072365127001620893?s=20):
**
“The blepharitis fund claims to offer grants for over a dozen treatments, but mathematically, [Tarsus’s] XDEMVY is the only drug capable of meeting the fund’s disclosed $680 to $750 average grant size - the vast majority, if not entirety of the fund is going to XDEMVY patients.”
Culper [concluded](https://x.com/CulperResearch/status/2072368139573092418?s=20):
**
“We are short [Tarsus] and think shares are headed lower as the company draws AKS/DoJ scrutiny, XDEMVY revenues peak well below $2B, and 2026 results continue to disappoint.”
Fugazi Research [published](https://www.fugaziresearch.com/p/rdw-selling-space-fantasies-printing) on **Redwire** (NYSE: RDW — $2.70 billion), a space equipment manufacturing company. Fugazi wrote:
**
“Since late 2025, Redwire has relied heavily on the equity markets to fund its operations, authorizing more than $1.1 billion of at-the-market equity issuance while common shares outstanding have nearly tripled in roughly fifteen months. Operating cash flow remains negative, and recent increases in cash have been driven by equity issuance rather than internally generated cash flow.”
## ***Recent Resignations***
Notable executive departures disclosed in the past week include:
-
CFO of **Lucid Group** (NASDAQ: LCID — $2.37 billion) “will leave the company after a transition period” after one and a half years. Last week, the company’s Chief Operating Officer, who previously served as interim CEO, “departed following the elimination of the Chief Operating Officer position” after two and a half years. The electric vehicle company has had three CEOs and three CFO departures in the last five years and has fallen ~95% since its July 2021 SPAC merger.
-
CFO of **Papa John’s** (NASDAQ: PZZA — $1.18 billion) resigned after nearly three years to become CFO of American Eagle (NYSE: AEO — $2.76 billion) and “is not entitled to any severance benefits as a result of his departure.” Papa John’s has had five CEOs and six CFOs in the last ten years.
-
CFO of **Freedom Holding Corp** (NASDAQ: FRHC — $9.94 billion) resigned with immediate effect after 17 years and was replaced by the 37-year-old incoming CFO, Mr. Valeriy Kim.
-
Chief Revenue Officer of **Five9** (NASDAQ: FIVN — $1.79 billion) departed with immediate effect eleven months after being promoted into that role. The company’s Vice President of Product Engineering and Chief Technology Officer both resigned in June as well. In September 2024, The Bear Cave [called the company](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-five9-fivn) “a major AI loser” and it has since fallen ~20%.
-
Mr. Sean McNealy, board member of **Abacus Global Management** (NYSE: ABX — $1.14 billion), resigned with immediate effect after three years. In June 2025, Morpheus Research [alleged](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/the-bear-cave-277) Abacus engaged in “a scheme to systematically overvalue its assets, reminiscent of past life settlements blowups.” The stock has since doubled.
*Data for this section is provided by VerityData from [VerityPlatform.com](http://verityplatform.com/)*
## ***News of the Week***
*“Short-seller Carson Block: a fugitive CEO, Libyan spies, and $50B fraud”* (Summation with Auren Hoffman)
*
*“SEC Investigation Updates: June 29, 2026”* ([Disclosure Insight](https://www.disclosureinsight.com/p/sec-investigation-updates-june-29))
**
“**AppLovin** (NASDAQ: APP — $177 billion) management and board failed investors here. The Bloomberg story was the perfect opportunity to disclose this investigation. Instead, we now must call out the company over an undisclosed SEC probe and add it to our Watch List where you will see regular updates until resolved.”
## ***Tweets of the Week***
@GergelyOrosz I honestly can’t name a single thing I like about PagerDuty anymore. Their moat got eaten by every adjacent tool adding incident workflows, alerts, uptime checks, and routing. \n\nFor smaller teams, it’s hard to justify paying PagerDuty prices when Sentry gives you most of the","username":"bitforth","name":"Alan","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2050825527490158592/LfEAzz2w_normal.jpg","date":"2026-06-29T22:08:04.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":3,"like_count":93,"impression_count":100577,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">@GergelyOrosz we recently moved off it (moved to datadog) and don’t miss it one bit 🤷♀️.","username":"ashtonshudson","name":"Ashton Hudson","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1945611200403755008/0r6OLif2_normal.jpg","date":"2026-06-29T22:01:27.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"like_count":7,"impression_count":4073,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">militiacapital.com\n\nWe are choosy, but out of the ~1k records I've seen, I have tried backing 5 of them thus far, and intend on backing","username":"orrdavid","name":"David Orr","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1988867410682867712/TrOQPinz_normal.jpg","date":"2026-06-29T23:25:21.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"There's a fantasy in trading: build a track record on your own account, get noticed, get hired by a fund. \n\nSomeone who's actually been inside those funds says it almost never happens:\n\nRob Carver — ex-Man AHL, ran the fixed income desk before going solo — explains:\n\n\"A lot of https://t.co/SIChTYqfxb","username":"ethanrkho","name":"Ethan Kho","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2071869778319327232/GGsLcgCg_normal.jpg"},"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":6,"like_count":87,"impression_count":30460,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
[Subscribe now](https://thebearcave.substack.com/subscribe?)
Until next week,
The Bear Cave
##### **New? *****[Sign Up Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/)***
##### **Got Feedback? Just Hit Reply**
##### **The Bear Cave is Not Investment Advice. See Full Disclosures [Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/about). Twitter: [@BearCaveEmail](https://x.com/BearCaveEmail)**
New Activist Reports, Recent Resignations, and Tweets of the Week
The Bear Cave is [now owned by Hunterbrook Media](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/the-bear-cave-332). Readers will continue to receive two original deep-dive paywalled investigations in The Bear Cave each month, along with select Hunterbrook stories featuring additional content and analysis in The Bear Cave.
## ***New Activist Reports***
The Bear Cave [published](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-stepstone-step) an investigation in collaboration with Hunterbrook Media on **StepStone Group** (NASDAQ: STEP — $4.91 billion), a global private equity and private markets company. The investigation alleged StepStone’s growth has come, in part, from charging fees on unrealized private-asset gains and highlighted:
**
“Due to an ill-timed contract, StepStone must buy out the profits interests tied to that retail arm held by CH Equity Partners LLC, an entity controlled by SPW executives. Since April 1, CH Equity Partners LLC has the right to lock in a giant personal payday, using a formula tied to the private wealth arm’s paper marks. StepStone’s liability is now estimated at about $2.3 billion.”
Culper Research [published](https://x.com/CulperResearch/status/2072364873430827410?s=20) on **Tarsus Pharmaceuticals** (NASDAQ: TARS — $2.82 billion), a biopharmaceutical company focused on eye care. Culper alleged that Tarsus donates millions of dollars “to a nominally independent blepharitis fund” that primarily subsidizes the copays of its expensive XDEMVY eyedrop medication, potentially in violation of anti-kickback laws. Culper [wrote](https://x.com/CulperResearch/status/2072365127001620893?s=20):
**
“The blepharitis fund claims to offer grants for over a dozen treatments, but mathematically, [Tarsus’s] XDEMVY is the only drug capable of meeting the fund’s disclosed $680 to $750 average grant size - the vast majority, if not entirety of the fund is going to XDEMVY patients.”
Culper [concluded](https://x.com/CulperResearch/status/2072368139573092418?s=20):
**
“We are short [Tarsus] and think shares are headed lower as the company draws AKS/DoJ scrutiny, XDEMVY revenues peak well below $2B, and 2026 results continue to disappoint.”
Fugazi Research [published](https://www.fugaziresearch.com/p/rdw-selling-space-fantasies-printing) on **Redwire** (NYSE: RDW — $2.70 billion), a space equipment manufacturing company. Fugazi wrote:
**
“Since late 2025, Redwire has relied heavily on the equity markets to fund its operations, authorizing more than $1.1 billion of at-the-market equity issuance while common shares outstanding have nearly tripled in roughly fifteen months. Operating cash flow remains negative, and recent increases in cash have been driven by equity issuance rather than internally generated cash flow.”
## ***Recent Resignations***
Notable executive departures disclosed in the past week include:
-
CFO of **Lucid Group** (NASDAQ: LCID — $2.37 billion) “will leave the company after a transition period” after one and a half years. Last week, the company’s Chief Operating Officer, who previously served as interim CEO, “departed following the elimination of the Chief Operating Officer position” after two and a half years. The electric vehicle company has had three CEOs and three CFO departures in the last five years and has fallen ~95% since its July 2021 SPAC merger.
-
CFO of **Papa John’s** (NASDAQ: PZZA — $1.18 billion) resigned after nearly three years to become CFO of American Eagle (NYSE: AEO — $2.76 billion) and “is not entitled to any severance benefits as a result of his departure.” Papa John’s has had five CEOs and six CFOs in the last ten years.
-
CFO of **Freedom Holding Corp** (NASDAQ: FRHC — $9.94 billion) resigned with immediate effect after 17 years and was replaced by the 37-year-old incoming CFO, Mr. Valeriy Kim.
-
Chief Revenue Officer of **Five9** (NASDAQ: FIVN — $1.79 billion) departed with immediate effect eleven months after being promoted into that role. The company’s Vice President of Product Engineering and Chief Technology Officer both resigned in June as well. In September 2024, The Bear Cave [called the company](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-five9-fivn) “a major AI loser” and it has since fallen ~20%.
-
Mr. Sean McNealy, board member of **Abacus Global Management** (NYSE: ABX — $1.14 billion), resigned with immediate effect after three years. In June 2025, Morpheus Research [alleged](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/the-bear-cave-277) Abacus engaged in “a scheme to systematically overvalue its assets, reminiscent of past life settlements blowups.” The stock has since doubled.
*Data for this section is provided by VerityData from [VerityPlatform.com](http://verityplatform.com/)*
## ***News of the Week***
*“Short-seller Carson Block: a fugitive CEO, Libyan spies, and $50B fraud”* (Summation with Auren Hoffman)
*
*“SEC Investigation Updates: June 29, 2026”* ([Disclosure Insight](https://www.disclosureinsight.com/p/sec-investigation-updates-june-29))
**
“**AppLovin** (NASDAQ: APP — $177 billion) management and board failed investors here. The Bloomberg story was the perfect opportunity to disclose this investigation. Instead, we now must call out the company over an undisclosed SEC probe and add it to our Watch List where you will see regular updates until resolved.”
## ***Tweets of the Week***
@GergelyOrosz I honestly can’t name a single thing I like about PagerDuty anymore. Their moat got eaten by every adjacent tool adding incident workflows, alerts, uptime checks, and routing. \n\nFor smaller teams, it’s hard to justify paying PagerDuty prices when Sentry gives you most of the","username":"bitforth","name":"Alan","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2050825527490158592/LfEAzz2w_normal.jpg","date":"2026-06-29T22:08:04.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":3,"like_count":93,"impression_count":100577,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">@GergelyOrosz we recently moved off it (moved to datadog) and don’t miss it one bit 🤷♀️.","username":"ashtonshudson","name":"Ashton Hudson","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1945611200403755008/0r6OLif2_normal.jpg","date":"2026-06-29T22:01:27.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"like_count":7,"impression_count":4073,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">militiacapital.com\n\nWe are choosy, but out of the ~1k records I've seen, I have tried backing 5 of them thus far, and intend on backing","username":"orrdavid","name":"David Orr","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1988867410682867712/TrOQPinz_normal.jpg","date":"2026-06-29T23:25:21.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"There's a fantasy in trading: build a track record on your own account, get noticed, get hired by a fund. \n\nSomeone who's actually been inside those funds says it almost never happens:\n\nRob Carver — ex-Man AHL, ran the fixed income desk before going solo — explains:\n\n\"A lot of https://t.co/SIChTYqfxb","username":"ethanrkho","name":"Ethan Kho","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2071869778319327232/GGsLcgCg_normal.jpg"},"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":6,"like_count":87,"impression_count":30460,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
[Subscribe now](https://thebearcave.substack.com/subscribe?)
Until next week,
The Bear Cave
##### **New? *****[Sign Up Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/)***
##### **Got Feedback? Just Hit Reply**
##### **The Bear Cave is Not Investment Advice. See Full Disclosures [Here](https://thebearcave.substack.com/about). Twitter: [@BearCaveEmail](https://x.com/BearCaveEmail)**
New Activist Reports, Recent Resignations, and Tweets of the Week
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