📰 The InformationThe InformationDoubao · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 06:01:16时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06:01:31·⚡ 决策 10-26 06:05:08 +3m37s·1.4 天前
The Information 称 Anthropic 最早可能于下周一(10/26)公开 S-1 招股书,启动史上最大规模 IPO 之一
唯一有直接敞口的公开代理 DXYZ 面对的是未官宣(could/as early as Monday)的程序性事件:IPO 已预热数月、财务细节提前数周泄露,价格对预期计入充分;该 CEF 长期高溢价、近 20 日已反弹约 26%,公开 S-1 可能利好兑现并伴随烧钱/利润率负面细节,方向与赔率均不占优。AMZN/GOOGL 作为超大市值股东无可交易边际。
📄 原文The Information↗ 原文
Anthropic’s Big Reveal
The tech industry equivalent of the Super Bowl may finally be upon us. Anthropic could make public the paperwork for it…
不做 Destiny Tech100(DXYZ.US)
未官宣的周末传闻(could/as early as Monday)+ 事件已预热数月、S-1 内容提前泄露;直接代理 DXYZ 长期高溢价、近 20 日已涨约 26%,公开文件或触发见光死与溢价收敛,且 S-1 可能暴露烧钱/利润率利空,方向与赔率均无正期望;美股周末休市也无法在确认前成交
不做 Amazon(AMZN.US)
万亿美元级超大市值,S-1 公开为预期内程序事件,持股增值与算力费披露相对市值无可交易边际,主导催化是周三自身财报
不做 Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
同 Amazon,超大市值软催化、事件已 price-in,周三财报前无事件驱动 edge
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Anthropic 最早周一公开 S-1 的传闻指向一个已被充分预热、且主体未上市的 IPO;唯一直接代理 DXYZ 高溢价、提前反弹且面临见光死风险,超大市值股东 AMZN/GOOGL 无边际弹性,故回避。
消息传播链
- 节点
关键理由
- 这是对未上市主体的程序性、未官宣预期报道,直接代理 DXYZ 的上涨依赖周一真递表且市场继续炒预期,而文章本身承认多数 S-1 内容已不新鲜
- DXYZ 历史相对 NAV 高溢价、52 周高点至今仍跌约 55%,S-1 若揭示巨额烧钱/算力成本(同日文章《Anthropic’s Margin is OpenAI’s Opportunity》即指向利润率问题),公开文件可能成为溢价收敛与 sell-the-news 触发器
主要风险
- 周一若正式公开 S-1 且估值指引超预期,DXYZ 可能短线脉冲上冲,踏空该题材性反弹
- S-1 中 Amazon/Google 持股增值或算力采购金额若显著超预期,可能带动 AI 板块情绪外溢
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-25 · 影响 weakens
同日 The Information 文章《Anthropic’s Margin is OpenAI’s Opportunity》及简报关注其盈利路径与向 Amazon/Google 支付的巨额算力费,S-1 或揭示高亏损率,构成见光死风险
检索:Anthropic S-1 利润率 烧钱 cash flow margin 负面 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-25 · 影响 weakens
DXYZ 52 周价格区间 19.71–72.87、现价较高点跌约 55%、近 20 日反弹约 26%,历史长期高溢价,公开 S-1 后存在溢价收敛/利好兑现前科风险
检索:DXYZ premium to NAV Anthropic sell off IPO filing 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例缺失本身与传闻、高溢价、预期充分共同构成降置信依据,支持回避而非凭感觉追多
方向:未取得可对齐的干净先例
涨幅量级:无高相似同市场、同相位(保密转公开 S-1 当日、针对私募股权代理基金)的首发锚定先例,不用其校准幅度
形态:一般 IPO 程序性节点对高溢价私募代理工具常见利好兑现特征,但缺乏经首发核验的对齐样本,不作为定量依据
工具执行结果 · 成功 4 · 降级 1 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 84 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`anthropic initial public offering paperwork | anthropic ipo s-1 filing public monday | anthropic 上市 招股书 公开提交`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 61.4/72 小时、572 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复;按当前事件继续正常研判。"} - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,507 ms
豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Anthropic public stock exposure vehicle Destiny Tech100 DXYZ Anthropic stake IPO 2026;API SearchType:web) - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,502 ms
豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Anthropic IPO S-1 filing Monday October 26 2026;API SearchType:web) - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,639 ms
豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Destiny Tech100 DXYZ Anthropic holding weight percentage NAV premium October 2026;API SearchType:web) - stock_quote 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 1,843 ms
{
原文全文
展开原文 · 10,850 字
The tech industry equivalent of the Super Bowl may finally be upon us. Anthropic could make public the paperwork for its initial public offering as early as Monday. Details about Anthropic’s finances from either drafts of the IPO filing or [recent investor meetings](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-rapid-slowing-growth-weigh-ipo-valuation?rc=ndc4g0) have been dribbling out for weeks. As a result, some of the S-1’s revelations will not be, well, all that revelatory.
But there are still many, many mysteries about Anthropic the filing could clear up, or at least make a little less fuzzy. I asked my colleagues Jason Dean and Laura Mandaro for their shortlist of items they hope the S-1 will illuminate:
• **More financial details.** More clarity on Anthropic’s trajectory toward profitability, along with cash flow numbers and other operational financial metrics that haven’t yet leaked out.
• **Ownership, investment and revenue details from big partners.**Hopefully, the filing will confirm just how much money Anthropic is paying Google and Amazon to run its AI on their servers, along with details about how much those companies invested in Anthropic and how much those stakes have appreciated.
• **Who pays Anthropic’s bills.**Anthropic has said around a fifth of its revenue this quarter of its revenue in the first half of this year came from just two customers, compared to a quarter for all of 2025, according to published reports. Investors will look for more recent concentration data and additional details on the sources of its revenue. Historically, [most of its revenue](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-hikes-2026-revenue-forecast-20-delays-will-go-cash-flow-positive?rc=zjctrx) has come from sales of its AI via an application programming interface, but these can rise and fall depending on what model is hot among developers. We’re looking for details on revenue from its Claude subscriptions as well as through other companies like Amazon that resell Anthropic AI in exchange [for a cut of those sales](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/anthropics-confidential-filing-reveals-customer-concentration?rc=zjctrx).
• **More on governance.** Many idiosyncrasies of Anthropic’s mission-minded corporate structure are public. For instance, a group of non-shareholders called the Long-Term Benefit Trust appoints the majority of its board. [As we’ve reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-seeks-palantir-style-voting-control-seven-co-founders-ahead-ipo), in the run-up to the IPO, Anthropic developed a plan to grant its seven co-founders, including CEO Dario Amodei, a combined 50.1% of voting power even if they reduce some of their stakes. What we don’t know is whether Amodei has any particular power over the six other founders and how exactly Anthropic will resolve conflicts between the trust and board members appointed by the founders. (Anthropic has planned to give employees a special class of stock for tiebreaker votes—complicated!)
• **Lockups and secondary sales.** We’ve written that [Anthropic has mulled extending the lockups](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-considers-letting-shareholders-sell-ipo-departing-spacex-playbook?rc=zjctrx)—the period when most shareholders are barred from selling their stock—beyond the typical 180-day period. But the company has considered making an exception for some shareholders at the time of the IPO, allowing what’s known as a secondary sale at the listing. Such sales would contrast with other tech IPOs this year that didn’t allow secondary sales during their listings, such as SpaceX and Cerebras. We’re looking for how long most investors have to sit on their shares and which groups of investors—or employees—can bail more quickly.
### More Ahead
The Anthropic filing fireworks aren’t the only big events in tech we’ll be watching next week. There’s also:
• **Earnings reports from the three major hyperscalers.** Google and Microsoft are scheduled to report on Wednesday, while Amazon will report on Thursday. Any changes the companies announce to their data center spending plans or forecasts about AI demand are likely to move the already jittery markets. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy isn’t waiting until earnings to strike a bullish note on the performance of AWS, his cloud unit. In an Andreessen Horowitz podcast published Friday, Jassy [said AWS is “largely sold out”](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/aws-sold-capacity-2028-jassy-says?rc=ndc4g0) of computing capacity through the end of next year. He also said the company’s decade-old acquisition of Annapurna Labs, a semiconductor startup behind AWS’ custom AI chip and other processors, may end up being Amazon’s best deal ever.
• **Instacart’s next move.** On Friday, we [broke the news](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale?rc=ndc4g0) that Instacart is exploring a possible sale of the company and has held preliminary conversations with DoorDash and Uber. Our story said that talks with Uber appear to have fizzled. But it will be interesting to see if a deal with someone else comes together. Instacart and DoorDash are due to report earnings on Nov. 5 and 4, respectively. Expect analysts to grill the companies about the prospects for a deal, if one isn’t announced by then.
• **New Apple devices.** Apple is having an event on Wednesday where it’s expected to announce its first touchscreen MacBook, as we [mentioned earlier in the week](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/apple-pigs-fly?rc=ndc4g0). Get ready for some greasy MacBook screens.
### In Other News
- AI has delivered no financial payoff to U.S. companies other than tech companies, Torsten Slock, chief economist at private equity firm Apollo Global Management [argued in an essay](https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector).
- China’s Moonshot AI on Friday [announced a new model](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/moonshot-ai-launches-new-kimi-k3-1-pro-model?rc=ndc4g0), Kimi K3.1 Pro, that [rivals the performance](https://x.com/artificialanlys/status/2113688083145314416) of leading U.S. frontier models on some benchmarks.
- Instacart shares closed up 9% on Friday after The Information [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale?rc=ndc4g0) that the grocery delivery company is exploring options to sell itself.
### Today on The Information’s TITV
Check out[today's episode of TITV](https://www.theinformation.com/titv/), in which Akash Pasricha speaks with managing editor Laura Mandaro about how the neocloud rout is affecting private markets, and vice versa.
[https://www.theinformation.com/titv/?](https://www.theinformation.com/titv/)
### Recommended Newsletter
Start your day with *Applied AI*, the newsletter from The Information that uncovers how leading businesses are leveraging AI to automate tasks across the board. [Subscribe now](https://www.theinformation.com/features/applied-ai) for free to get it delivered straight to your inbox twice a week.
### New From Our Reporters
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale)Exclusive
#### [Instacart Is Exploring a Sale](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale)
By Valida Pau, Jessica E. Lessin and Cory Weinberg
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-firms-tap-lp-pools-warehouse-loans-speedy-ai-cash](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-firms-tap-lp-pools-warehouse-loans-speedy-ai-cash)Exclusive
#### [VC Firms Tap LP Pools, Warehouse Loans for Speedy AI Cash](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-firms-tap-lp-pools-warehouse-loans-speedy-ai-cash)
By Julia Hornstein
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ramp-investors-went-nuclear-airwallex-doomed-deal](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ramp-investors-went-nuclear-airwallex-doomed-deal)Exclusive
#### [Ramp Investors Went Nuclear Against Airwallex After Doomed Deal](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ramp-investors-went-nuclear-airwallex-doomed-deal)
By Michael Roddan
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-margin-openais-opportunity](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-margin-openais-opportunity)#### [Anthropic’s Margin is OpenAI’s Opportunity](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-margin-openais-opportunity)
By Laura Bratton and Stephanie Palazzolo
### Upcoming Events
#### [Tuesday, October 27 — The Information’s 2026 WTF Summit](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
The Information's WTF Summit returns to Napa Valley, bringing together the women shaping tech, media and finance. Confirmed speakers include Bari Weiss, Whitney Wolfe Herd (Bumble), Kim Posnett (Goldman Sachs) and Whitney Cummings. Expect candid conversations and a room built for meaningful exchange. Limited tickets remain—reserve your spot now.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
#### [Monday, November 9 — Intimate Dinner with The Information and EY Consulting in San Francisco](https://www.theinformation.com/events/san-francisco-private-dinner)
Trust is quickly becoming the defining question of the AI era. Over dinner, Jessica Lessin, Founder & Editor-in-Chief of The Information, and Whitt Butler, EY Americas Vice Chair – Consulting, will talk candidly about how leaders can build that trust and keep it. Request an invite.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/san-francisco-private-dinner)
#### [Tuesday, November 10 — The Long Road to an IPO](https://www.theinformation.com/events/the-long-road-to-an-ipo)
Join The Information and NYSE for a cocktail reception and conversation on what it really takes to go public, hosted by The Information’s Dakin Campbell. The panel will explore the trust, relationships and preparation companies need to build with advisers, investors and exchange executives, along with the many complexities founders and executives must navigate along the way. Sponsored by NYSE. Apply to attend.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/the-long-road-to-an-ipo)
## What We’re Reading
#### [Trump’s ‘Smart Wall’ of A.I. Cameras Is Watching the Border, and More Than a Million People](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/22/us/politics/ai-surveillance-cameras-border-mexico.html?unlocked_article_code=1.K1E.FumA.sE1rFvlGVKjW&smid=tw-share)
Nick Wingfield is co-executive editor at The Information, where he has worked since 2018 after previously reporting on technology for The New York Times and Wall Street Journal. He is based in Seattle and can be found on X at [@nickwingfield](https://www.theinformation.com/“https:/twitter.com/nickwingfield”).
But there are still many, many mysteries about Anthropic the filing could clear up, or at least make a little less fuzzy. I asked my colleagues Jason Dean and Laura Mandaro for their shortlist of items they hope the S-1 will illuminate:
• **More financial details.** More clarity on Anthropic’s trajectory toward profitability, along with cash flow numbers and other operational financial metrics that haven’t yet leaked out.
• **Ownership, investment and revenue details from big partners.**Hopefully, the filing will confirm just how much money Anthropic is paying Google and Amazon to run its AI on their servers, along with details about how much those companies invested in Anthropic and how much those stakes have appreciated.
• **Who pays Anthropic’s bills.**Anthropic has said around a fifth of its revenue this quarter of its revenue in the first half of this year came from just two customers, compared to a quarter for all of 2025, according to published reports. Investors will look for more recent concentration data and additional details on the sources of its revenue. Historically, [most of its revenue](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-hikes-2026-revenue-forecast-20-delays-will-go-cash-flow-positive?rc=zjctrx) has come from sales of its AI via an application programming interface, but these can rise and fall depending on what model is hot among developers. We’re looking for details on revenue from its Claude subscriptions as well as through other companies like Amazon that resell Anthropic AI in exchange [for a cut of those sales](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/anthropics-confidential-filing-reveals-customer-concentration?rc=zjctrx).
• **More on governance.** Many idiosyncrasies of Anthropic’s mission-minded corporate structure are public. For instance, a group of non-shareholders called the Long-Term Benefit Trust appoints the majority of its board. [As we’ve reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-seeks-palantir-style-voting-control-seven-co-founders-ahead-ipo), in the run-up to the IPO, Anthropic developed a plan to grant its seven co-founders, including CEO Dario Amodei, a combined 50.1% of voting power even if they reduce some of their stakes. What we don’t know is whether Amodei has any particular power over the six other founders and how exactly Anthropic will resolve conflicts between the trust and board members appointed by the founders. (Anthropic has planned to give employees a special class of stock for tiebreaker votes—complicated!)
• **Lockups and secondary sales.** We’ve written that [Anthropic has mulled extending the lockups](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-considers-letting-shareholders-sell-ipo-departing-spacex-playbook?rc=zjctrx)—the period when most shareholders are barred from selling their stock—beyond the typical 180-day period. But the company has considered making an exception for some shareholders at the time of the IPO, allowing what’s known as a secondary sale at the listing. Such sales would contrast with other tech IPOs this year that didn’t allow secondary sales during their listings, such as SpaceX and Cerebras. We’re looking for how long most investors have to sit on their shares and which groups of investors—or employees—can bail more quickly.
### More Ahead
The Anthropic filing fireworks aren’t the only big events in tech we’ll be watching next week. There’s also:
• **Earnings reports from the three major hyperscalers.** Google and Microsoft are scheduled to report on Wednesday, while Amazon will report on Thursday. Any changes the companies announce to their data center spending plans or forecasts about AI demand are likely to move the already jittery markets. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy isn’t waiting until earnings to strike a bullish note on the performance of AWS, his cloud unit. In an Andreessen Horowitz podcast published Friday, Jassy [said AWS is “largely sold out”](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/aws-sold-capacity-2028-jassy-says?rc=ndc4g0) of computing capacity through the end of next year. He also said the company’s decade-old acquisition of Annapurna Labs, a semiconductor startup behind AWS’ custom AI chip and other processors, may end up being Amazon’s best deal ever.
• **Instacart’s next move.** On Friday, we [broke the news](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale?rc=ndc4g0) that Instacart is exploring a possible sale of the company and has held preliminary conversations with DoorDash and Uber. Our story said that talks with Uber appear to have fizzled. But it will be interesting to see if a deal with someone else comes together. Instacart and DoorDash are due to report earnings on Nov. 5 and 4, respectively. Expect analysts to grill the companies about the prospects for a deal, if one isn’t announced by then.
• **New Apple devices.** Apple is having an event on Wednesday where it’s expected to announce its first touchscreen MacBook, as we [mentioned earlier in the week](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/apple-pigs-fly?rc=ndc4g0). Get ready for some greasy MacBook screens.
### In Other News
- AI has delivered no financial payoff to U.S. companies other than tech companies, Torsten Slock, chief economist at private equity firm Apollo Global Management [argued in an essay](https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector).
- China’s Moonshot AI on Friday [announced a new model](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/moonshot-ai-launches-new-kimi-k3-1-pro-model?rc=ndc4g0), Kimi K3.1 Pro, that [rivals the performance](https://x.com/artificialanlys/status/2113688083145314416) of leading U.S. frontier models on some benchmarks.
- Instacart shares closed up 9% on Friday after The Information [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale?rc=ndc4g0) that the grocery delivery company is exploring options to sell itself.
### Today on The Information’s TITV
Check out[today's episode of TITV](https://www.theinformation.com/titv/), in which Akash Pasricha speaks with managing editor Laura Mandaro about how the neocloud rout is affecting private markets, and vice versa.
[https://www.theinformation.com/titv/?](https://www.theinformation.com/titv/)
### Recommended Newsletter
Start your day with *Applied AI*, the newsletter from The Information that uncovers how leading businesses are leveraging AI to automate tasks across the board. [Subscribe now](https://www.theinformation.com/features/applied-ai) for free to get it delivered straight to your inbox twice a week.
### New From Our Reporters
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale)Exclusive
#### [Instacart Is Exploring a Sale](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/instacart-exploring-sale)
By Valida Pau, Jessica E. Lessin and Cory Weinberg
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-firms-tap-lp-pools-warehouse-loans-speedy-ai-cash](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-firms-tap-lp-pools-warehouse-loans-speedy-ai-cash)Exclusive
#### [VC Firms Tap LP Pools, Warehouse Loans for Speedy AI Cash](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-firms-tap-lp-pools-warehouse-loans-speedy-ai-cash)
By Julia Hornstein
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ramp-investors-went-nuclear-airwallex-doomed-deal](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ramp-investors-went-nuclear-airwallex-doomed-deal)Exclusive
#### [Ramp Investors Went Nuclear Against Airwallex After Doomed Deal](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ramp-investors-went-nuclear-airwallex-doomed-deal)
By Michael Roddan
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-margin-openais-opportunity](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-margin-openais-opportunity)#### [Anthropic’s Margin is OpenAI’s Opportunity](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-margin-openais-opportunity)
By Laura Bratton and Stephanie Palazzolo
### Upcoming Events
#### [Tuesday, October 27 — The Information’s 2026 WTF Summit](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
The Information's WTF Summit returns to Napa Valley, bringing together the women shaping tech, media and finance. Confirmed speakers include Bari Weiss, Whitney Wolfe Herd (Bumble), Kim Posnett (Goldman Sachs) and Whitney Cummings. Expect candid conversations and a room built for meaningful exchange. Limited tickets remain—reserve your spot now.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
#### [Monday, November 9 — Intimate Dinner with The Information and EY Consulting in San Francisco](https://www.theinformation.com/events/san-francisco-private-dinner)
Trust is quickly becoming the defining question of the AI era. Over dinner, Jessica Lessin, Founder & Editor-in-Chief of The Information, and Whitt Butler, EY Americas Vice Chair – Consulting, will talk candidly about how leaders can build that trust and keep it. Request an invite.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/san-francisco-private-dinner)
#### [Tuesday, November 10 — The Long Road to an IPO](https://www.theinformation.com/events/the-long-road-to-an-ipo)
Join The Information and NYSE for a cocktail reception and conversation on what it really takes to go public, hosted by The Information’s Dakin Campbell. The panel will explore the trust, relationships and preparation companies need to build with advisers, investors and exchange executives, along with the many complexities founders and executives must navigate along the way. Sponsored by NYSE. Apply to attend.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/the-long-road-to-an-ipo)
## What We’re Reading
#### [Trump’s ‘Smart Wall’ of A.I. Cameras Is Watching the Border, and More Than a Million People](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/22/us/politics/ai-surveillance-cameras-border-mexico.html?unlocked_article_code=1.K1E.FumA.sE1rFvlGVKjW&smid=tw-share)
Nick Wingfield is co-executive editor at The Information, where he has worked since 2018 after previously reporting on technology for The New York Times and Wall Street Journal. He is based in Seattle and can be found on X at [@nickwingfield](https://www.theinformation.com/“https:/twitter.com/nickwingfield”).
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2ee1b0ccac· 2026-10-26 06:05 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包b7b4acf827b8当前