TSOH Investment ResearchCodex · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:30:45时区推断·⟳ 抓取 18:51:09·⚡ 决策 07-27 18:52:40 +1m31s·92.1 天前
TSOH文章复盘Ally汽车贷款发放增长，但未披露新的公司级催化
文章主要基于Ally Financial已披露的Q2 FY26汽车贷款发放数据做投资观点复盘，不是新增订单、指引上修或监管变化。
📄 原文TSOH Investment Research↗ 原文
Ally Financial: The Next Vintage
From “**[Ally Financial: Momentum](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/ally-financial-momentum)**” (October 2025): “The b…
不做 Ally Financial（ALLY.US）
研究文章复盘已披露Q2数据，缺少新增可交易催化；盘前直接追多没有明确预期差，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-27 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 文章主要基于Ally Financial已披露的Q2 FY26汽车贷款发放数据做投资观点复盘，不是新增订单、指引上修或监管变化。
- 核心事实为Ally与Capital One汽车贷款发放同比增长，属于财报后基本面解读，缺少短周期可交易的新增预期差。
主要风险
- 若后续公司正式上修信用质量或净息差指引，需要按新催化重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,377 字
From “**[Ally Financial: Momentum](https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/ally-financial-momentum)**” (October 2025):
“The biggest concern on the Ally thesis has been credit quality, primarily due to the troublesome performance of the 2022 vintage. The good news is that the loan book turns fairly quickly… The large majority of what remains is from newer vintages (2023 – 2025), loans added to the auto book with 9%+ origination yields and which are more heavily weighted to Ally’s highest quality credit tier. In effect, the pain that preceded this period set the stage for improved underwriting conditions; Ally and its peers are reacting accordingly.”
That reaction - leaning into improved underwriting conditions - remains evident: Ally originated ~$13.3 billion of consumer auto loans during [Q2 FY26](/api/research-feeds-db/file/tsoh_208570248/285d62609fde1774ae0ae6cb.pdf), a ~21% increase from the year ago period. We see a similar trajectory at its peers, with Capital One’s Auto originations growing by a comparable rate in the quarter to [~$12.9 billion](https://investor.capitalone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/capital-one-reports-second-quarter-2026-net-income-30-billion-or). In total, Q2 FY26 auto origination volumes ($) for Ally and Capital One were up >40% versus Q2 FY24.
“The biggest concern on the Ally thesis has been credit quality, primarily due to the troublesome performance of the 2022 vintage. The good news is that the loan book turns fairly quickly… The large majority of what remains is from newer vintages (2023 – 2025), loans added to the auto book with 9%+ origination yields and which are more heavily weighted to Ally’s highest quality credit tier. In effect, the pain that preceded this period set the stage for improved underwriting conditions; Ally and its peers are reacting accordingly.”
That reaction - leaning into improved underwriting conditions - remains evident: Ally originated ~$13.3 billion of consumer auto loans during [Q2 FY26](/api/research-feeds-db/file/tsoh_208570248/285d62609fde1774ae0ae6cb.pdf), a ~21% increase from the year ago period. We see a similar trajectory at its peers, with Capital One’s Auto originations growing by a comparable rate in the quarter to [~$12.9 billion](https://investor.capitalone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/capital-one-reports-second-quarter-2026-net-income-30-billion-or). In total, Q2 FY26 auto origination volumes ($) for Ally and Capital One were up >40% versus Q2 FY24.
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