📰 The InformationThe InformationCodex · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 00:01:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:01:20·⚡ 决策 07-28 00:02:35 +1m15s·91.7 天前
The Information称飞行出租车公司转向军用eVTOL以弥补民用需求不确定性
这是一篇行业分析/深度报道,核心是飞行出租车企业尝试切入军用市场,并未披露新订单、采购金额、获批或确定的短期收入增量。
📄 原文The Information↗ 原文
Hybrid Electric Flying Taxis May Be in Combat Zones Before Ferrying Civilian Passengers
But last week a group of these companies gathered 35 miles south of London to strut something more muscular—futuristic…
不做 Archer Aviation(ACHR.US)
仅为军用eVTOL概念展示和未来招标预期,未披露订单、金额或入选结果,方向和短期业绩增量不足,不做。
不做 QuantumScape(QS.US)
大众削减合作项目属于文末回顾性摘要,且报道称股价上周已下跌,当前不是新鲜可执行利空,不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-27 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这是一篇行业分析/深度报道,核心是飞行出租车企业尝试切入军用市场,并未披露新订单、采购金额、获批或确定的短期收入增量。
- 文中对民用eVTOL需求不确定性、军用市场机会和不同公司路线均有描述,方向偏叙事而非可量化催化。
- Archer与Anduril的Thunder展示发生在上周,且只是模型/概念展示与预期中的五角大楼征集,不构成当前可回测的明确交易触发。
主要风险
- 若后续五角大楼正式发布招标、点名入选厂商或披露采购规模,需要作为新事件重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 8,213 字
But last week a group of these companies gathered 35 miles south of London to strut something more muscular—futuristic military aircraft that they said would cost much less than today’s conventional helicopters used in combat. They expect the Pentagon to announce a call for such aircraft later this year.
One of the more dramatic unveilings was Thunder, a proposed hybrid electric attack aircraft with rotors like those of a helicopter, a collaboration between flying taxi startup Archer Aviation and defense tech company Anduril Industries.
The release of the Thunder model coincided[with a report](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/defense-tech-company-anduril-talks-raise-funding-about-100-billion-valuation-2026-07-24/) that Anduril is attempting to parlay its high-profile weapons announcements into a fresh fundraising at a $100 billion valuation, well on the way to that of Lockheed Martin’s $130 billion market capitalization. Anduril[reported $2.2 billion](https://www.anduril.com/news/anduril-announces-usd5b-series-h-raise) in revenue in 2025, a fraction of Lockheed’s $75 billion in revenue last year and $5 billion in profit.
The pivot by flying taxi developers to the military space is shrewd, highlighting a broader effort by companies in various industries to piggyback on the global defense boom, in particular the mania around drones and other autonomous aircraft.
Archer, for instance, which develops electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, or eVTOLs, has argued that the Pentagon is going to want “loyal wingmen,” swarms of relatively small hybrid eVTOLs fitted with missiles, rockets and drones[that would accompany](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/2079546495083143411?s=20) Apache combat helicopters to battle zones, where they would zip off to take out enemy positions.
But this strategy also reflects the electric air taxi industry’s need to shore up its yawning uncertainties: Just as U.S. consumer demand for electric vehicles has not materialized at anywhere near the scale the industry expected, there’s no guarantee that travelers will pile into flying taxis in droves, as most of the companies have predicted.
To the degree that the Pentagon and other Western militaries adopt flying taxis modified for combat, they could provide early cash to the startups and could also end up as their main source of revenue. Kyle Clark, founder and CEO of flying taxi startup Beta Technologies, for instance, argues that getting people into eVTOLs in large numbers will take a lot longer than industry optimists have predicted. So the Vermont-based startup has started not with eVTOLs but with electric fixed-wing aircraft, and not with passengers but with the transportation of cargo and organs for transplants in hospitals.
Last week, Beta was among the electric aviation startups that showed up at the Farnborough International Airshow, one of the industry’s largest trade gatherings, just south of London. Like his rivals, Clark brought along an aircraft aimed at the military but for carrying cargo—the MV250, an autonomous eVTOL modified with a turbine engine developed with GE Aerospace. He said it would be priced between $7 million and $9 million, far less than a $50 million Apache helicopter.
He questioned the demand for proposed attack eVTOLs, and said the far larger defense market will be for cheap and dispensable aircraft that can carry cargo into combat zones.
“It’s sexier to throw guns on everything, but that’s not what we need,” he told me.
To date, Clark’s instincts have proven to be accurate. In March, Beta was the[biggest winner](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-electric/electric-trump-administration-favors-conventional-electric-planes-jetson-age-aircraft?rc=fd9gxc) in a three-year federal program allowing electric aviation companies to launch interim services in 26 states before they obtain Federal Aviation Administration certification. Beta was a partner in seven of the eight teams chosen to participate.
The question regarding the passenger eVTOL market is how much demand will materialize for such flights. A lot will depend on cost. The eVTOL developers insist they will be able to bring down their fares to about what Uber charges for its upscale Black service. But many aviation industry veterans doubt they will manage to make money at such prices.
The CEOs of the startups themselves concede that business will start slowly, with just a few aircraft in a few cities as public acceptance of the aircraft grows. But they predict eventual brisk passenger traffic. They say their fares will be relatively high at first, but that eventually the price will compete with that of Uber cars. Of course, that would be the opposite of how Uber got where it is—starting out with low fares and moving higher.
I asked Clark whether the eVTOL industry could end up like the EV industry—with much less early customer demand than expected. “It is very possible that that happens,” he said, which was why, he added, he went for cargo first. “Cargo is not subject to the ebbs and the flows of sentiment.”
Another company pursuing the military market is Robinson Helicopter, the world’s largest maker of civilian helicopters, which manufactures both combustion and electric helicopters in California. David Smith, CEO of Robinson, told me the company is producing a prototype of its own attack aircraft aimed at the expected Pentagon announcement.
He said it would be an autonomous combustion helicopter that cost around $1 million, far cheaper than any of the electric aircraft displayed at Farnborough. “We can fly it sacrificial and save the life of the Apache crew or whatever, or fly it direct into a bad guy and solve a threat that way,” he said. “But you don’t sweat the cost.”
---
**Noteworthy**
**The global boom in** demand to power the grid and AI data centers has a clear winner. It’s China’s[Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-24/catl-s-first-half-profit-jumps-42-on-energy-storage-tailwind?utm_medium=email&utm_source=author_alert&utm_term=260724&utm_campaign=author_19202654), the world’s largest battery maker. CATL’s profit grew 42% in the first half of the year, and its revenue increased 55%. Its sale of EV batteries dominated that surge, but its revenue from stationary storage batteries rose 88%, accounting for 19% of revenue in the first half of the year, up from 16% in the same period last year.
**Volkswagen said its**[operating profit fell 9.5%](https://www.ft.com/content/0c9cd938-f02a-43cb-ad70-0fa3e5e7ca69?syn-25a6b1a6=1) in the second quarter and predicted that revenue may fall 3% for the year as a whole. Among the collateral damage was VW’s longstanding collaboration with next-generation lithium-metal battery developer QuantumScape. Last week, QuantumScape revealed that VW had cut the size of their joint battery development program by 42%, suggesting that the German carmaker’s interest in the startup’s batteries had waned. QuantumScape announced the creation of new units to target other markets—one for drones and other military products, and a second unit for AI data centers. The battery company’s shares finished the week down 17%.
**Ford and China’s Geely Group** agreed to collaborate on a new SUV in Spain. The tie-up, in which the two companies will both work out of Ford’s plant in the Spanish city of Valencia, is the latest example of major Western carmakers seeking to raise their game by collaborating with Chinese rivals.
**—-**
**Recommended newsletter**
Start your day with Applied AI, which covers how leading businesses are leveraging AI to automate tasks.[Subscribe now](https://www.theinformation.com/features/applied-ai) for free to get it delivered to your inbox twice a week.
----
**Upcoming Event: Intimate Dinner With The Information and EY in New York City**
Wednesday, July 29: Join The Information and EY for an intimate executive discussion on closing the enterprise AI execution gap. We’ll share new research on embedding trust into AI decisions to accelerate business confidently.[Request an invite](https://www.theinformation.com/events/new-york-city-private-dinner?rc=fd9gxc).
One of the more dramatic unveilings was Thunder, a proposed hybrid electric attack aircraft with rotors like those of a helicopter, a collaboration between flying taxi startup Archer Aviation and defense tech company Anduril Industries.
The release of the Thunder model coincided[with a report](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/defense-tech-company-anduril-talks-raise-funding-about-100-billion-valuation-2026-07-24/) that Anduril is attempting to parlay its high-profile weapons announcements into a fresh fundraising at a $100 billion valuation, well on the way to that of Lockheed Martin’s $130 billion market capitalization. Anduril[reported $2.2 billion](https://www.anduril.com/news/anduril-announces-usd5b-series-h-raise) in revenue in 2025, a fraction of Lockheed’s $75 billion in revenue last year and $5 billion in profit.
The pivot by flying taxi developers to the military space is shrewd, highlighting a broader effort by companies in various industries to piggyback on the global defense boom, in particular the mania around drones and other autonomous aircraft.
Archer, for instance, which develops electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, or eVTOLs, has argued that the Pentagon is going to want “loyal wingmen,” swarms of relatively small hybrid eVTOLs fitted with missiles, rockets and drones[that would accompany](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/2079546495083143411?s=20) Apache combat helicopters to battle zones, where they would zip off to take out enemy positions.
But this strategy also reflects the electric air taxi industry’s need to shore up its yawning uncertainties: Just as U.S. consumer demand for electric vehicles has not materialized at anywhere near the scale the industry expected, there’s no guarantee that travelers will pile into flying taxis in droves, as most of the companies have predicted.
To the degree that the Pentagon and other Western militaries adopt flying taxis modified for combat, they could provide early cash to the startups and could also end up as their main source of revenue. Kyle Clark, founder and CEO of flying taxi startup Beta Technologies, for instance, argues that getting people into eVTOLs in large numbers will take a lot longer than industry optimists have predicted. So the Vermont-based startup has started not with eVTOLs but with electric fixed-wing aircraft, and not with passengers but with the transportation of cargo and organs for transplants in hospitals.
Last week, Beta was among the electric aviation startups that showed up at the Farnborough International Airshow, one of the industry’s largest trade gatherings, just south of London. Like his rivals, Clark brought along an aircraft aimed at the military but for carrying cargo—the MV250, an autonomous eVTOL modified with a turbine engine developed with GE Aerospace. He said it would be priced between $7 million and $9 million, far less than a $50 million Apache helicopter.
He questioned the demand for proposed attack eVTOLs, and said the far larger defense market will be for cheap and dispensable aircraft that can carry cargo into combat zones.
“It’s sexier to throw guns on everything, but that’s not what we need,” he told me.
To date, Clark’s instincts have proven to be accurate. In March, Beta was the[biggest winner](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-electric/electric-trump-administration-favors-conventional-electric-planes-jetson-age-aircraft?rc=fd9gxc) in a three-year federal program allowing electric aviation companies to launch interim services in 26 states before they obtain Federal Aviation Administration certification. Beta was a partner in seven of the eight teams chosen to participate.
The question regarding the passenger eVTOL market is how much demand will materialize for such flights. A lot will depend on cost. The eVTOL developers insist they will be able to bring down their fares to about what Uber charges for its upscale Black service. But many aviation industry veterans doubt they will manage to make money at such prices.
The CEOs of the startups themselves concede that business will start slowly, with just a few aircraft in a few cities as public acceptance of the aircraft grows. But they predict eventual brisk passenger traffic. They say their fares will be relatively high at first, but that eventually the price will compete with that of Uber cars. Of course, that would be the opposite of how Uber got where it is—starting out with low fares and moving higher.
I asked Clark whether the eVTOL industry could end up like the EV industry—with much less early customer demand than expected. “It is very possible that that happens,” he said, which was why, he added, he went for cargo first. “Cargo is not subject to the ebbs and the flows of sentiment.”
Another company pursuing the military market is Robinson Helicopter, the world’s largest maker of civilian helicopters, which manufactures both combustion and electric helicopters in California. David Smith, CEO of Robinson, told me the company is producing a prototype of its own attack aircraft aimed at the expected Pentagon announcement.
He said it would be an autonomous combustion helicopter that cost around $1 million, far cheaper than any of the electric aircraft displayed at Farnborough. “We can fly it sacrificial and save the life of the Apache crew or whatever, or fly it direct into a bad guy and solve a threat that way,” he said. “But you don’t sweat the cost.”
---
**Noteworthy**
**The global boom in** demand to power the grid and AI data centers has a clear winner. It’s China’s[Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-24/catl-s-first-half-profit-jumps-42-on-energy-storage-tailwind?utm_medium=email&utm_source=author_alert&utm_term=260724&utm_campaign=author_19202654), the world’s largest battery maker. CATL’s profit grew 42% in the first half of the year, and its revenue increased 55%. Its sale of EV batteries dominated that surge, but its revenue from stationary storage batteries rose 88%, accounting for 19% of revenue in the first half of the year, up from 16% in the same period last year.
**Volkswagen said its**[operating profit fell 9.5%](https://www.ft.com/content/0c9cd938-f02a-43cb-ad70-0fa3e5e7ca69?syn-25a6b1a6=1) in the second quarter and predicted that revenue may fall 3% for the year as a whole. Among the collateral damage was VW’s longstanding collaboration with next-generation lithium-metal battery developer QuantumScape. Last week, QuantumScape revealed that VW had cut the size of their joint battery development program by 42%, suggesting that the German carmaker’s interest in the startup’s batteries had waned. QuantumScape announced the creation of new units to target other markets—one for drones and other military products, and a second unit for AI data centers. The battery company’s shares finished the week down 17%.
**Ford and China’s Geely Group** agreed to collaborate on a new SUV in Spain. The tie-up, in which the two companies will both work out of Ford’s plant in the Spanish city of Valencia, is the latest example of major Western carmakers seeking to raise their game by collaborating with Chinese rivals.
**—-**
**Recommended newsletter**
Start your day with Applied AI, which covers how leading businesses are leveraging AI to automate tasks.[Subscribe now](https://www.theinformation.com/features/applied-ai) for free to get it delivered to your inbox twice a week.
----
**Upcoming Event: Intimate Dinner With The Information and EY in New York City**
Wednesday, July 29: Join The Information and EY for an intimate executive discussion on closing the enterprise AI execution gap. We’ll share new research on embedding trust into AI decisions to accelerate business confidently.[Request an invite](https://www.theinformation.com/events/new-york-city-private-dinner?rc=fd9gxc).
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