event-trade登录编辑
📰 The InformationThe InformationDoubao · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 00:00:47时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:00:55·⚡ 决策 10-20 01:24:56 +1h24m·8.0 天前

The Information 深度报道:DeepSeek 与华为深度合作,将用昇腾 950DT 预训练、并拿下 960DT 大部分产能,进一步松动英伟达 CUDA 锁定

核心主体华为与 DeepSeek 均未上市;英伟达的中国份额流失在 5 月黄仁勋表态、IDC 份额数据与 9 月 TileLang 开源时已被市场反复定价,本篇是深度综述式报道(多数事实源自此前 The Information 9 月报道与华为官方路线图),新增的 950DT 年底测试、960DT 倾斜供应均为时间表未定的前瞻信息,无新增订单或金额;A 股昇腾产业链为间接二阶映射且自 2026 年 4 月已多轮大涨,盘前无法验证哪一标的有边际增量,风险收益不足。

📄 原文The Information↗ 原文
How DeepSeek Is Shaping Huawei’s AI Chips in a Growing Challenge to Nvidia
The extensive collaboration, which hasn’t previously been reported, brings two of China’s most important tech companies…
不做 英伟达(NVDA.US)
中国训练份额流失与 CUDA 松动是早已公开并定价的长期趋势,本篇无新增财务或客户事件,做空催化弱,不满足做空红线;报道当日费半反而上涨 2.7%。
不做 高新发展(华鲲振宇)(000628.SZ)
昇腾服务器整机为间接二阶映射,本篇无针对公司的订单、金额或份额增量;该题材自 2026 年 4 月已多轮炒作,A 股盘前无法验证边际承接,旧信息再传播下追高风险收益不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

DeepSeek×华为深化国产训练芯片合作在产业方向上利好昇腾链、利空英伟达,但两大主体不可交易,关键事实(TileLang 开源、960 路线图、英伟达让份额)此前均已公开并被多轮炒作,本篇无新增订单、金额或确认的财报增量,A 股映射拥挤且 A 股尚未开盘,不构成有正期望的可执行事件交易。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-19 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-10-19 16:00 UTC财经媒体独家/深度The Information一手源原文 ↗
    新综述披露 950DT 年底预训练计划与 960DT 大部分产能给 DeepSeek 的安排,但测试仍在进行、时间表可能变化

关键理由

  • 若 950DT 万卡预训练在年底真正确认跑通,才会给昇腾服务器、光互联、先进封装链带来可量化的新一轮订单催化,目前仅是时间表未定的前瞻。
  • 英伟达在华份额下滑属已被反复确认的长期趋势,本篇不改变其全球数据中心基本面,做空无强催化。

主要风险

  • 报道为信源可靠的独家,若 A 股明日借题大幅高开,情绪交易可能短期推高升腾链,但属于对旧信息的再传播,追高风险大。
  • 950DT 集群良率、HBM 供给与大规模管理软件尚未完成,年底预训练存在跳票可能。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-19 · 影响 weakens
    原文明确承认制造伙伴爬坡、HBM 受限、单次预训练需万卡连续运行数周、管理软件未完成,年底时点可能变化
    检索:昇腾 950DT 量产 良率 HBM 约束 预训练 跳票 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 invalidates
    英伟达在华份额下滑、黄仁勋 5 月已公开让步,中国收入占比已很低,本篇无新增财务冲击,且当日费半大涨
    检索:Nvidia China revenue share conceded Huawei 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例与传播证据共同支持 AVOID:不为综述式旧信息重组在盘前追多拥挤的昇腾概念股,也不对英伟达开弱催化空头。

方向:未构建可用对齐先例:本篇主体未上市,可比的是 A 股昇腾板块在 4 月 V4 适配、9/30 TileLang 开源、9/17 960 提前等节点的反应,但这些事件本身已被市场消化,且缺乏可溯源的首发交易所/公司锚点用于 event_study 定价。

涨幅量级:证据不足,无法据此校准本次幅度;历史观察显示昇腾概念节点多次当日冲高、随后分化,不支持在盘前对二阶映射追高。

形态:国产算力主题在 2026 年已多轮见光后分化,反复出现借旧闻高开低走特征。

工具执行结果 · 成功 5 · 降级 0 · 失败 2 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 13 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`deepseek huawei ascend 950dt 960dt collaboration training tilelang | deepseek 昇腾芯片 国产替代 英伟达 tilelang | 深度求索 华为 昇腾 合作 训练 950dt 960dt`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复;按当前事件继续正常研判。"}
  2. kb_search 失败 stock_tools HTTP · 55 ms
    kb_search 服务暂不可用;这不是一条知识库命中。
  3. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,069 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:DeepSeek Huawei Ascend chip collaboration The Information October 2026;API SearchType:web)
  4. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,099 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:华为昇腾950DT 产业链 受益股 A股 供应链 2026;API SearchType:web)
  5. get_stock_profile 失败 stock_tools HTTP · 58 ms
    {"result": "get_stock_profile 暂不可用: RuntimeError(\"ConnectError('[Errno 111] Connection refused')\")"}
  6. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,048 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:The Information DeepSeek Huawei Ascend 950DT pre-training 960DT supply exclusive October 19 2026;API SearchType:web)
  7. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 872 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:英伟达 中国 营收占比 2026 华为昇腾 DeepSeek 影响 股价;API SearchType:web)

原文全文

展开原文 · 6,916 字
The extensive collaboration, which hasn’t previously been reported, brings two of China’s most important tech companies into a unified effort on an issue central to Beijing’s technology strategy. China’s government wants the country’s AI built on homegrown chips and has limited how many Nvidia processors China’s largest tech companies can buy. Huawei already leads the country’s AI chip market, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC in May that his company had “largely conceded” the market to domestic rivals.

In particular, the cooperation could help China crack one of the biggest impediments to fully homegrown AI: the powerful chips needed to train new models quickly. Despite attempts by both the Chinese and U.S. governments to limit Chinese companies’ access to Nvidia chips, [China’s top AI developers still train their best models on chips from the U.S. company](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/chinese-ai-startup-moonshot-seeks-nvidia-blackwell-chips-next-model), sometimes obtained through smuggling. If the collaboration yields a Huawei chip that DeepSeek can use to fully train a top-tier model, other Chinese AI labs could follow suit.

Last month, DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng told investors at a meeting that using more Chinese chips for training was a major priority, The Information [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deepseek-bets-big-huawei-chips-bypass-u-s-export-controls?rc=jnr9wn). DeepSeek is planning to start using Huawei’s current flagship AI chip, the recently released Ascend 950DT, for pre-training—the stage where a model learns its basic abilities from vast amounts of data over weeks or months—as soon as the end of this year, according to one of the two people and a separate person with direct knowledge of the effort. Tests are still underway and the timetable could change, they said.

Huawei, meanwhile, is planning to give DeepSeek most of the supply of the Ascend 960DT, its next training chip, when it comes out next year, rather than spreading it across China’s AI developers. DeepSeek plans to use it both to train models and to run them, one of the two people said.

Huawei has said it will release a new generation of Ascend chips annually, including the 960DT in the first quarter of 2027, the 970 in 2028 and the 980 in 2029.

**Hurdles to China’s Chip Efforts**

The chip effort still faces significant obstacles, including constraints on how quickly Huawei’s manufacturing partner can ramp up production to levels needed for the large chip clusters used to train models. U.S. export controls have made that harder, with Washington blocking Huawei from using the world’s top chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., in 2020 and limiting China’s access since 2024 to the advanced high-bandwidth memory AI chips require.

And even with DeepSeek’s help, it will likely be a while before Huawei’s chips rival the power of Nvidia’s. The U.S. company’s B300 chips deliver roughly seven times the raw arithmetic performance of Huawei’s Ascend 950, according to research institute [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/publications/huaweis-roadmap-to-2031), which expects Huawei to stay three to four years behind Nvidia on single-chip performance through 2030.

While Huawei’s weaker chips make models slower to build, they come from a supplier that U.S. export rules can’t control. DeepSeek is choosing to “go a little slower but go a lot longer,” said Qingyuan Lin, a senior analyst at Bernstein who covers China’s chip industry.

Only a few companies have trained frontier models on non-Nvidia chips, including Google on its own tensor processing units and Anthropic on Google TPUs and Amazon chips. Previously, DeepSeek used Huawei chips for running its models and for post-training—the stage of refining a pre-trained model for reasoning and other tasks.

DeepSeek isn’t walking away from Nvidia. It is trying to access more of Nvidia’s advanced Blackwell chips, along with older Nvidia processors, one of the two people said. Blackwell chips are barred from export to China, but DeepSeek has obtained them anyway and used them to train its V4 models, [The Information reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deepseek-using-banned-nvidia-chips-race-build-next-model). Intermediaries bought Blackwell servers in countries where sales are allowed and set them up in data centers that passed inspection. The servers were then taken apart and the chips shipped to China.

**Nvidia’s Lock-In Loosens**

A key component of DeepSeek’s effort with Huawei chips is TileLang, an open-source programming language built by a team led by Peking University researchers and released in January 2025. It lets engineers write small programs known as kernel code that carry out an AI model’s calculations with less code than older methods require. TileLang is an alternative to writing code directly in CUDA, Nvidia’s widely used programming system for its graphics processing units, and can run on different chips.

DeepSeek first used TileLang with Nvidia GPUs, publishing TileLang code alongside versions written in CUDA when the Chinese company released an experimental V3.2 model in September 2025. TileLang now handles most of those programs in model development for DeepSeek’s V4 models.

Last month, DeepSeek released a version of TileLang for Huawei’s Ascend 950 chips, along with five sets of code covering the calculations and data transfers needed to run its models. It said every TileLang program it uses in training now has an Ascend version. DeepSeek said Huawei’s engineers gave “unreserved” help in building them.

TileLang could further loosen Nvidia’s grip. For years, CUDA has been one of the U.S. company’s most important tools for keeping customers using its chips, because moving to another type of chip requires a long, laborious rewrite. With TileLang, code still has to be adjusted, but DeepSeek doesn’t have to start from zero when it moves work from Nvidia to Huawei chips.

Huawei is taking other steps to make up for the weaker performance of its chips. The company is linking many processors into one system big enough to train models, and recently began shipping these supernodes with Ascend 950DT at high volume, the people said.

Huawei Rotating Chairman Eric Xu said last month that 950DT training tests had gone well, that large-scale supply would start around the turn of the year, and that he expects many developers to train on them in 2027. He also said Huawei couldn’t meet domestic demand and was limiting overseas sales.

DeepSeek’s newer tests use more than 1,000 processors, the people said. A full pre-training run could need well over 10,000 Ascend 950DTs running nonstop for weeks. One failed chip or a delay in moving data can leave the rest waiting, and repeated disruptions can derail the run. Some of the software needed to manage systems that large is still unfinished, the people said.

决策记录链 · 只追加

每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。

  1. 76569ae707 · 2026-10-20 01:24 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包 658c0c1e2ba5当前