Substack作者发布光通信/光子股个人持仓随笔，未形成对NEW（160550.KS）的可交易催化

Photonics companies are starting to get attractive again.

Well, primarily for investors on the sidelines and people that (still) have dip buying power.

I obviously never lost interest.

But, many of these companies have definitely dropped to a more attractive risk:return level.

**So today I wanted to take some time and just do an impromptu, brain dump style post where I share some new companies I added to my portfolio yesterday, some additional company commentary & levels I am watching, and some general thoughts on the market. **

I have spent most of my day today working on my industry wide report on the supply ramp + oversupply concerns and also a deep dive into ONsemi. So this was a nice break from that.

Enjoy!

If you are interested in AAOI, GLW, AXTI, SIVE, COHR, CIEN, NOK, LITE, SMTC, AEHR etc.

Read this!

*This post reflects my personal research, opinions, and portfolio activity. It is shared for educational and informational purposes only and should never be treated as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I am sharing how I personally think about the setup, the risk/reward, the industry structure, and my own positioning.*

Alright we have to start with


What an insane run. I did not expect this at all. I really can’t pinpoint what made this parabolic move in an otherwise fairly restrained stock. I think it had to do with all the glass substrate dialogue. But regardless, it exceeded my 12 month base case and was closing in on my 12 month bull case. And it became way too heavy in my port so I had to trim some back. Definitely interested in adding some more back. I do find that $185-$190 level very attractive if we get there. Please ignore my lines if they don’t make sense. They for sure are not perfect and are very open to criticism. But they are my lines nonetheless.

Just brutal price action here.


This is one of those example where the influence of trading really impacts a stock I believe. Maybe it’s technical or patterns. I don’t know. But I noticed that so many people piled into this one to trade and once it broken that range it was just a freefall.

But the story has really only improved. The industry checks about AMD wanting to secure CW supply make a lot of sense to me. It’s one of Rosenblatt’s top picks with a price target of $230 I believe. Rosenblatt and I get along. Also, we see the capex that AOI is putting to work securing the inputs they need for ramping capacity, along with expanding their facilities. The story is really strong. I really can’t predict what this stock does. But the fact that it’s trading under $10billion is wild to me. The market is REALLY underestimating their ramp. And if we see proof of the ramp showing up in Q3/Q4, the previous ATH will fall. If not, well you get a taste of what the market will do.

I’m still heavy in AOI. If we happen to fall to the low 100’s I’ll get some more. I can’t imagine that happens without a really weak tape. But anythings possible. I don’t want to size any heavier than I already am unless it’s an extreme dislocation.

Why Semtech didn’t break out along with the other copper & optics names is deffudling to me.


I just think that they are in such a strong position especially with all the success the Mediatek is seeing. I see this going one of two ways. Either the market finally wakes up to what they are doing as their financials reflect it more and they re-rate hard. Or they continued to stay suppressed if the market just doesn’t care for their position. I obviously lean towards the first option and have been steadily DCA into a larger position.

Oh Ciena. You were so ready to run and get some gap fills until the market pulled back.


I have very high levels of conviction here. I have been building up my position throughout this consolidation period and added a lot more on Friday. I post about them often and I wrote another post on X yesterday:

“I am quite bullish

[$CIEN](https://x.com/search?q=%24CIEN&src=cashtag_click)

at these levels.

When I stress test the optical investment universe trying to find durable companies, Ciena is consistently a top 3 for me.

I have posted a lot about Ciena, but for this post let’s hone in a bit.

Look at what Nvidia is doing and saying.

Nvidia is pushing scale-across with Spectrum-XGS. Linking distributed AI data centers so they can operate as one larger AI factory.

The problem Nvidia is trying to solve is that single sites hit power and capacity ceilings. Once compute spreads across buildings, campuses, metros, and regions, distance becomes an AI performance tax.

Cross-DC networking has to handle latency, jitter, congestion, and collective communications across GPUs. If that fabric performs poorly, expensive accelerators sit below potential utilization.

Nvidia’s answer is distance-aware AI networking. Topology-aware congestion control, adaptive routing, precision latency management, end-to-end telemetry, and better NCCL performance across sites.

I know I have been hammering home scale-across over the past few months. It’s for a reason. Not just bull posting.

This ties into what

[@insane_analyst](https://x.com/insane_analyst)

flagged in his latest substack piece. Nvidia maybe appearing to buy a lot of long-haul networking gear, with Ciena and Nokia as obvious beneficiaries.

When I read that, it got me thinking about the recent Needham report saying Nvidia could be working on a $5B-$10B long-haul telecom project over the next few years.

Needham’s logic is that NVIDIA may be trying to create more direct connectivity to strategic cloud and enterprise AI customers, giving it more control over the path from GPU capacity to demand.

So this is what I think could be happening...

Nvidia wants AI compute to become more fungible across geography.

More sites, power pools, customer access points. Better GPU utilization. Less stranded capacity. A more controlled AI factory stack.

If that is right, then focus should continue to increase for coherent transport, DCI, line systems, amplification, routing, automation, and network control.

That is Ciena’s world. Nokia plays here too. Ciena is just a cleaner purer play expression of the theme.

So I do believe risk/reward looks very attractive here based on my investment preferences.

Could the market continue to sell off all AI and/or optics companies? Absolutely.

Are there companies here with greater upside potential?

Definitely. [$SIVE](https://x.com/search?q=%24SIVE&src=cashtag_click) [$IQE](https://x.com/search?q=%24IQE&src=cashtag_click) etc.

They have a place in my port of course, but they also have greater execution risk.

So if I am thinking about how I want heavy, continued exposure to this theme over the coming quarters, CIEN at $420 is up there for me.

This is not a recommendation or financial advice.”

But yeah, I just think they are such a strong company and have so much growth ahead.

Does the market agree with me or let it keep dropping? Time will tell.

Viav has been pretty muted since their earnings. I believe they are a very strong player in the testing space, but the market might not agree.


So that is something that I need to keep in mind and what resulting in my decision to add some more testing companies. Test is an area where I was personally underweight and I wanted to change that. So in addition to my Viav position, I built up AEHR and FORM.

gnarly drop.


What I noticed was that the companies with more expectation on future growth got punished harder. Which makes sense obviously. AEHR being one of them. Current rev base is very low and the market is pricing in a big inflection. I tend to weigh these companies lower in my own port even though they outperformed for a while. So this was my chance to change that and size in bigger to AEHR. I don’t know if this level holds. Could easily knife through, but I think the high 60’s presented a nice r:r for me.

I added some FORM here as well.


I would like this one a bit lower to see if the mid teens holds, so definitely a bit more near term downside risk here. But I like the company position and execution so I built a position. Like I said I also felt underweight on testing companies so I wanted som ehere.

Just not much going on the last few weeks.


This is obviously one of the stronger companies in this industry. But one that the market is seemingly disinterested in. Maybe concerns about NVIDIA just locking up all their supply. Or a misunderstanding of their NPO position. Whatever it is. Not an add for me but a hold. Doesn’t mean it won’t go up. I’d be surprsied if they let it get much lower. But I just want increased exposure elsewhere.

Unlike LITE, this one was actually still trending higher for the most part until Friday.


My thesis I laid out earlier this year about the market appreciating + rewarding Coherent’s position is playing out I believe. I do think they are one of the most durable and well positioned companies in this sector and where they have a good amount of upside left. Still holding, no adds as I am already heavy.

I’ve been building this one over the last couple weeks.


Similar to AAOI, I think that traders piled in and added the volatility here. But regardless, such a strong company with so much going on. I think they are very well positioned over the next few years. Whether the market will reward the multiple or not, I don’t know. There is that earnings gap + 100EMA below. I would personally add more there if we get there. I am already heavy.

$SIVE

Same idea. If you are pricing in lots of future growth, you got hit.


This one is interesting too because you have lots of ‘borrowed conviction’ in this stock. It’s easy to be bullish on the way up. But it’s very easy to panic and sell on the way down if you didn’t have your own conviction in the first place. I definitely think the 40’s represented a much nicer and justifiable opportunity. My main concern with them is that it takes too long for them to execute and by that time there will be more supply and more competition. But if they move fast and do well, it can be very productive.

I didn’t take any on Friday but I would have if I was paying attention. I’ve been focusing more on U.S. listed companies personally.

That Jensen pump was crazy. I have some, not interested in adding more at current levels. But I think they are very well positioned and can see the stock move higher. I’m just prioritizing other areas.


At $3.7B I still have such a hard time with the valuation.


But especially with the COHR news, I think this represents a pretty good spot. I didn’t take any but if we build a base above $53 I might consider it. I just have a hard time valuing the bottleneck premium.

I’m sure I missed a few names but these are the ones that are front of mind.

I mostly try to keep my port inline with the relative weightings I lay out in my ETF:

And I still think this is a great way to have exposure across the industry.

I personally size in a bit heavier into the larger names here, but I think a more responsible method for a general investor is the ETF approach. Especially if you aren’t as deep in the weeds as I am. Less upside torque, but better company adjusted risk.

Even though I am buying, this definitely does not mean these companies won’t keep dropping. Please understand that. The whole AI trade is under pressure. Whether you agree with it or not. I personally have conviction, so I build my positions. But there are many people out there that think that this is all a house of cards that is going to tumble soon. So when you make these decisions please do it with your own diligence. Never just rely on anyone else’s thoughts to be the sole deciding factor for you. We could all be wrong.

*Financial Disclosure: I currently have long positions in several companies discussed in this post. I may add to, trim, or fully exit any of these positions at any time based on price action, valuation, company execution, new information, portfolio sizing, or changes in my own risk tolerance.*

*This post reflects my personal research, opinions, and portfolio activity. It is shared for educational and informational purposes only and should never be treated as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I am sharing how I personally think about the setup, the risk/reward, the industry structure, and my own positioning.*

*Many of the companies discussed are volatile, cyclical, execution-sensitive, and tied to fast-changing AI infrastructure, optical networking, semiconductor, and data center spending trends. Several also trade with elevated expectations around future growth, customer ramps, product cycles, capacity expansion, and margin improvement. Those expectations may prove too optimistic.*

*Please do your own work, build your own framework, understand your own downside risk, and size positions according to your own financial situation. I may be wrong on the thesis, the timing, the valuation, or the risk/reward.*
Did I catch a knife?