📰 The InformationThe InformationCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:证据不足
北京时间·🕒 发布 07:33:57时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07:34:04·⚡ 决策 08-26 07:35:51 +1m47s·62.3 天前
ClickHouse因AI Agent需求ARR升至3.5亿美元以上,凸显Datadog日志/可观测性竞争压力
ClickHouse本身不可直接交易;对Datadog虽有竞争负面读穿,但不是新的官方流失公告或可量化指引下修,且无法完成强制行情、去重、案例库和event_study校验,因此不给方向性订单。
📄 原文The Information↗ 原文
Why Revenue Is Hopping at Data Observability Startups
OpenAI’s use is notable, since the ChatGPT maker has also been a customer of publicly traded Datadog, the giant in obse…
不做 Datadog(DDOG.US)
ClickHouse/OpenAI读穿偏负面,但不是Datadog新的官方客户流失或指引下修,且无法核实当前行情与price-in,强空条件不足。
不做 Elastic(ESTC.US)
AI可观测性主题相关,但Deductive AI交易已公告,本条没有Elastic新增订单、收入或指引变化。
不做 Dynatrace(DT.US)
Arize并购已是旧催化,本条只提供行业热度背景,缺少新的公司级业绩增量。
不做 Snowflake(SNOW.US)
Observe收购和数据平台可观测性逻辑已知,本条没有Snowflake新增可交易事实。
不做 Palo Alto Networks(PANW.US)
Chronosphere并购属于行业背景,本条无法量化PANW新增收入或利润弹性。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
这是一条高质量行业媒体的新鲜报道,确认AI Agent带动ClickHouse、Cribl、Grafana等可观测性/数据基础设施公司增长,并对Datadog日志业务形成竞争压力。但最直接受益方ClickHouse未上市,Datadog负面链条已有早前大客户支出减少背景,本文新增信息难以量化为短线强空;其它上市公司更多是主题背景而非公司级新增催化。综合证据与工具缺口,本次不做。
消息传播链
- 报道称ClickHouse ARR超过3.5亿美元、OpenAI使用量过去一年显著上升,并讨论Datadog竞争压力。
- ClickHouse与Datadog此前宣布合作,说明两者既竞争也可互补,削弱单纯做空Datadog的确定性。
关键理由
- ClickHouse ARR较5月增长约40%至3.5亿美元以上,OpenAI使用量上升,说明AI Agent正在拉动低成本日志分析和可观测性需求。
- 对Datadog的负面点在于OpenAI既是ClickHouse高增长客户又曾是Datadog客户,日志管理预算可能向更低成本方案分流。
- 行业并购活跃支撑AI observability主题估值,但对ESTC、DT、SNOW、PANW这类已上市公司,本条更像行业背景而非新增业绩触发。
主要风险
- Datadog仍是可观测性龙头且6月季度收入同比增长36%、上调全年收入预测,竞争叙事可能不足以形成短线强空。
- OpenAI迁移部分日志业务和大客户支出减少已在此前研究/市场反应中出现,本文新增部分可能已被部分定价。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-10 · 影响 weakens
ClickHouse官方披露与Datadog合作,说明竞争之外仍有互补关系,削弱把本条直接作为Datadog强空的确定性。
检索:Datadog ClickHouse OpenAI customer reduced spending partnership observability 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-13 · 影响 weakens
Dynatrace收购Arize预计增厚ARR增长但稀释FY2027非GAAP经营利润率,主题利好并非无成本。
检索:Dynatrace Arize acquisition financial impact ARR growth operating margin dilution 2026 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足使本次不把行业热度升级为ESTC/DT/SNOW/PANW多头,也不把Datadog竞争压力升级为强空。
方向:可观测性/AI监控需求和并购热度方向偏正面,但对Datadog是竞争负面、对其它上市公司是主题背景,方向分化。
涨幅量级:没有完成event_study,且缺少同市场同机制的高相似样本,不能用先例校准tp/sl或下单幅度。
形态:已找到的样本多为发行人并购公告,不足以判断第三方创业公司ARR增长报道是否会触发上市同行持续上涨或下跌。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 6/10 DT 2026-08-13 Dynatrace宣布以9.15亿美元收购Arize,预计提升ARR增长但稀释FY2027非GAAP经营利润率。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.4% · +2日 -0.8% · +3日 -3.9% · +4日 -0.6% · +5日 +0.1%
相似度依据:同属AI observability需求与并购主题,但这是Dynatrace自身并购公告,不是第三方创业公司增长读穿。
经验:AI observability并购能验证行业方向,但不自动转化为所有上市同行的短线买入信号。 - 相似度 5/10 ESTC 2026-08-24 Elastic完成收购Deductive AI,以增强Elastic Observability的AI root cause analysis能力。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -3.1% · +2日 -6.5%
相似度依据:同属AI监控/incident investigation并购,但事件主体为Elastic自身完成收购,机制不同。
经验:小额技术收购更多验证产品路线,若无财务指引变化,对大市值上市公司短线弹性有限。
原文全文
展开原文 · 6,069 字
OpenAI’s use is notable, since the ChatGPT maker has also been a customer of publicly traded Datadog, the giant in observability—or monitoring the actions humans and AI agents take on computers. ClickHouse last raised funding at a $15 billion valuation in January and fielded many approaches this year from strategic buyers, according to a person with direct knowledge of the discussions.
“We don’t dismiss interest because we have a responsibility to our shareholders but we are not selling the company, quite the contrary,” Chief Executive Aaron Katz told me.
ClickHouse isn’t alone in benefiting from the large data needs spurred by AI agents. Cribl, which sells technology known as telemetry that helps companies move and store data for monitoring, says its annual recurring revenue is near $400 million, up 33% from February.
“Our enterprise customers are experiencing a massive data growth driven in part by AI and the advent of agents and we’re helping them handle it,” said Cribl cofounder and CEO Clint Sharp.
The eight-year-old company says it helps customers including Zoom, ServiceNow and Hilton by routing them to cheaper storage and the most efficient monitoring tool.
“The problem we solve is that your data is growing at a 30% compound growth rate, and your budget isn't,” Sharp said.
Cribl, which last raised venture funding in August 2024 at a $3.5 billion valuation, is aiming for an initial public offering in the next couple of years, said Sharp.
And Grafana, a 12-year-old startup that sells tools that let developers visualize in real time how their applications, cloud servers and AI agents are behaving, says it’s recently seen a pickup in revenue. That’s in part thanks to the company’s AI assistant, which helps companies observe activity on their own apps, said Scott Fingerhut, Grafana’s chief marketing officer.
Fingerhut said half of Grafana’s customers this year used the assistant to get the company’s software to monitor their systems or configure tools.
The company, [which was valued at $9.6 billion in March,](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/grafana-labs-talk-raise-9-billion-valuation?rc=zjctrx) passed $400 million in annual recurring revenue last September. It frequently comes up as a possible acquisition target for a larger company interested in data monitoring, say software bankers.
**Elastic, Snowflake Purchases**
Already, larger companies have been buying startups that specialize in monitoring data.
Elastic, a publicly traded company that provides an open-source search engine for large data sets, on Monday bought Deductive AI, which helps engineers monitor data to resolve issues, for $85 million. Two weeks ago, Dynatrace paid $915 million for Arize AI, whose AI tracks how models and agents behave.
Snowflake closed its $1 billion purchase of Observe in June, betting that customers already storing their data in its platform will want the tools to see how their applications are performing. The acquisition, [first reported by The Information](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/snowflake-talks-buy-app-monitoring-startup-observe-inc-around-1-billion), followed cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks’ purchase of observability startup Chronosphere for $3.35 billion.
Other acquisitions are likely, investors and bankers say. Cybersecurity firms, big tech companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft, and networking companies like Cisco could all make a play for startups that monitor data.
“As AI agents take on more autonomous work, companies need visibility into what they’re doing and safeguards to catch failures or security risks before they cause harm,” said Mike Jung, partner at Founders Circle Capital, which has backed Databricks, Vercel, ClickHouse and Cribl.
### Today on TITV
Check out [today's episode of TITV](https://www.theinformation.com/titv/) in which we speak with our Meta reporter about her scoop on the company's forthcoming AI agent.
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## Recommended Newsletter
Every weekday, The Briefing helps executives get smarter about the latest in tech, media and finance. [Subscribe for free now](https://www.theinformation.com/features/the-briefing?utm_campaign=growth&utm+content=newsletter&utm_medium=recommended+newsletter).
### Upcoming Events
#### [Wednesday, September 23 — AI Agenda Live SF 2026](https://www.theinformation.com/events/ai-agenda-live-2026)
Join us to explore the real-world shifts, new architectures, and enterprise strategies defining the next era of AI. Secure your spot today to hear directly from top minds at Google DeepMind, OpenAI, Atlassian, and more.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/ai-agenda-live-2026)
#### [Tuesday, October 27 — The Information’s 2026 WTF Summit](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
Tickets on sale now: The Information returns to Napa Valley October 27–28 to convene senior women across tech, media, and finance. Join us for two days of intimate, candid conversations with the leaders navigating today’s global shifts.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
“We don’t dismiss interest because we have a responsibility to our shareholders but we are not selling the company, quite the contrary,” Chief Executive Aaron Katz told me.
ClickHouse isn’t alone in benefiting from the large data needs spurred by AI agents. Cribl, which sells technology known as telemetry that helps companies move and store data for monitoring, says its annual recurring revenue is near $400 million, up 33% from February.
“Our enterprise customers are experiencing a massive data growth driven in part by AI and the advent of agents and we’re helping them handle it,” said Cribl cofounder and CEO Clint Sharp.
The eight-year-old company says it helps customers including Zoom, ServiceNow and Hilton by routing them to cheaper storage and the most efficient monitoring tool.
“The problem we solve is that your data is growing at a 30% compound growth rate, and your budget isn't,” Sharp said.
Cribl, which last raised venture funding in August 2024 at a $3.5 billion valuation, is aiming for an initial public offering in the next couple of years, said Sharp.
And Grafana, a 12-year-old startup that sells tools that let developers visualize in real time how their applications, cloud servers and AI agents are behaving, says it’s recently seen a pickup in revenue. That’s in part thanks to the company’s AI assistant, which helps companies observe activity on their own apps, said Scott Fingerhut, Grafana’s chief marketing officer.
Fingerhut said half of Grafana’s customers this year used the assistant to get the company’s software to monitor their systems or configure tools.
The company, [which was valued at $9.6 billion in March,](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/grafana-labs-talk-raise-9-billion-valuation?rc=zjctrx) passed $400 million in annual recurring revenue last September. It frequently comes up as a possible acquisition target for a larger company interested in data monitoring, say software bankers.
**Elastic, Snowflake Purchases**
Already, larger companies have been buying startups that specialize in monitoring data.
Elastic, a publicly traded company that provides an open-source search engine for large data sets, on Monday bought Deductive AI, which helps engineers monitor data to resolve issues, for $85 million. Two weeks ago, Dynatrace paid $915 million for Arize AI, whose AI tracks how models and agents behave.
Snowflake closed its $1 billion purchase of Observe in June, betting that customers already storing their data in its platform will want the tools to see how their applications are performing. The acquisition, [first reported by The Information](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/snowflake-talks-buy-app-monitoring-startup-observe-inc-around-1-billion), followed cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks’ purchase of observability startup Chronosphere for $3.35 billion.
Other acquisitions are likely, investors and bankers say. Cybersecurity firms, big tech companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft, and networking companies like Cisco could all make a play for startups that monitor data.
“As AI agents take on more autonomous work, companies need visibility into what they’re doing and safeguards to catch failures or security risks before they cause harm,” said Mike Jung, partner at Founders Circle Capital, which has backed Databricks, Vercel, ClickHouse and Cribl.
### Today on TITV
Check out [today's episode of TITV](https://www.theinformation.com/titv/) in which we speak with our Meta reporter about her scoop on the company's forthcoming AI agent.
### New From Our Reporters
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/big-tech-suddenly-paying-startups](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/big-tech-suddenly-paying-startups)The Takeaway
#### [Why Big Tech is Suddenly Paying Up for Startups](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/big-tech-suddenly-paying-startups)
By Jessica E. Lessin
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/fintechs-muscle-ai-spending](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/fintechs-muscle-ai-spending)The Information Special Report
#### [The Big Opportunity in Wrangling AI Payments](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/fintechs-muscle-ai-spending)
By Yueqi Yang
[https://www.theinformation.com/articles/cursor-officially-enters-musk-era](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/cursor-officially-enters-musk-era)Exclusive
#### [Inside Musk’s First Address to Cursor: Grok Is Falling Behind](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/cursor-officially-enters-musk-era)
By Grace Kay
## Recommended Newsletter
Every weekday, The Briefing helps executives get smarter about the latest in tech, media and finance. [Subscribe for free now](https://www.theinformation.com/features/the-briefing?utm_campaign=growth&utm+content=newsletter&utm_medium=recommended+newsletter).
### Upcoming Events
#### [Wednesday, September 23 — AI Agenda Live SF 2026](https://www.theinformation.com/events/ai-agenda-live-2026)
Join us to explore the real-world shifts, new architectures, and enterprise strategies defining the next era of AI. Secure your spot today to hear directly from top minds at Google DeepMind, OpenAI, Atlassian, and more.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/ai-agenda-live-2026)
#### [Tuesday, October 27 — The Information’s 2026 WTF Summit](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
Tickets on sale now: The Information returns to Napa Valley October 27–28 to convene senior women across tech, media, and finance. Join us for two days of intimate, candid conversations with the leaders navigating today’s global shifts.
[More details](https://www.theinformation.com/events/wtf-summit-2026)
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