📰 The InformationThe InformationCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 07-28 21:00:59时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07-28 21:01:19回填·⚡ 决策 07-29 11:49:06·90.2 天前
The Information称月之暗面和阿里训练前沿模型仍依赖英伟达Blackwell芯片
事件新增信息是中国前沿模型训练仍依赖英伟达Blackwell,说明训练侧国产替代尚未形成硬确认,反而削弱A股国产训练芯片的直接做多逻辑。
📄 原文The Information↗ 原文
Chinese AI Startup Moonshot Seeks More Nvidia Blackwell Chips for Next Model
Kratsios claimed Moonshot trained K3 at a data center in Thailand, where Chinese access to Nvidia chips might be allowe…
不做 英伟达(NVDA.US)
中国训练需求韧性属正面背景,但没有新增合法订单或收入金额,且BIS调查和出口管制风险抵消,超大市值主标的不追。
不做 阿里巴巴(09988.HK)
Qwen使用Blackwell训练是模型能力叙事补充,不是外部平台选型或可量化商业化增量;港股盘中已涨约2%,当前edge不足。
不做 寒武纪(688256.SH)
本条新增事实强调前沿训练仍靠英伟达Blackwell,不能同向推导国产训练芯片订单;A股不可裸空且不做反手修复。
不做 海光信息(688041.SH)
国产算力主题此前已被Kimi算力紧张交易,本条没有点名国产训练芯片承接方或订单,方向与做多不一致。
不做 中芯国际(688981.SH)
事件不涉及先进制造订单、产能或客户新增,只有自主可控远期联想,无法形成短周期公司级交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- Kimi K3于7月16日发布,后续媒体报道确认其带来显著算力需求。
- 月之暗面称Kimi K3需求超预期、计算集群接近上限并暂停新订阅,说明推理算力紧张已不是本条独家新增。
- The Information称Moonshot K3部分在中国训练且使用Blackwell,阿里Qwen3.8-Max也使用包括Blackwell在内的英伟达芯片训练。市场反应:NVDA.US当日收涨0.25%,09988.HK次日上午盘中约涨2.14%,未出现足以确认强重定价的幅度。
- Axios称英伟达CEO黄仁勋会见美国商务部长,背景是美国政府调查Blackwell芯片进入中国的潜在违规问题。
关键理由
- 事件新增信息是中国前沿模型训练仍依赖英伟达Blackwell,说明训练侧国产替代尚未形成硬确认,反而削弱A股国产训练芯片的直接做多逻辑。
- 对英伟达(NVDA.US)是需求韧性证据,但同时伴随BIS调查和出口管制风险,且未披露新增合法订单或可确认收入增量,难以支撑超大市值主标的短线追多。
- 阿里巴巴(09988.HK)被提及使用Blackwell训练Qwen3.8-Max,但这只是模型能力和算力来源细节,缺少外部平台选型、订单金额或商业化增量,港股今日已上涨约2.14%。
主要风险
- 若后续美国正式收紧中国远程访问或Blackwell出口路径,英伟达中国相关收入和中国AI链估值可能被重新定价。
- 若月之暗面、阿里或中国云厂后续公开采购国产训练集群,才会重新触发A股国产算力篮子的同向做多评估。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-20 · 影响 weakens
内部库显示Kimi算力紧张和国产算力映射在7月20日至21日已被市场讨论,本条不是首次触发国产算力主题。
检索:Moonshot Kimi K3 Blackwell Nvidia 中国 公司 供应商 阿里 Qwen3.8-Max Blackwell 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 影响 weakens
定量库命中主要集中在Blackwell出货、CoWoS和HBM供给,并未给出国产训练芯片承接Moonshot或阿里训练需求的硬订单证据。
检索:国产AI训练芯片 寒武纪 海光 英伟达 Blackwell 训练 替代 - 做多前查反向 · 来源 supply_chain_lookup · 影响 none
FactSet供应链关系表未返回NVDA亚洲结构化供应链候选,无法据此生成已坐实的亚太供应商交易腿。
检索:NVDA.US asia supply chain
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(6 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- supply_chain_lookup · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 6,857 字
Kratsios claimed Moonshot trained K3 at a data center in Thailand, where Chinese access to Nvidia chips might be allowed under U.S. rules. But Moonshot trained K3 partly in China, according to one of the three people. Chinese rules governing cross-border data transfer make it difficult to move the massive data required for pre-training to overseas data centers, the person said.
Other Chinese firms are also stepping up their open-source AI game—also with help from Nvidia chips. Just days after Moonshot released K3, Alibaba Group unveiled Qwen3.8-Max, its largest-ever model at 2.4 trillion parameters, saying its performance is comparable to that of top U.S. models. Alibaba trained Qwen3.8-Max on Nvidia chips including the Blackwell, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
In December, The Information [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deepseek-using-banned-nvidia-chips-race-build-next-model?rc=jnr9wn) that DeepSeek was training its new AI model using Blackwell chips that had been smuggled into China. (Earlier this year, DeepSeek released the new model, V4.)
These episodes highlight the fact that while Chinese startups are disrupting Silicon Valley by developing highly capable open-source AI models, they still depend on U.S. technology to do so. Beijing has poured massive state funds into China’s chip industry for years, and the country is rapidly adopting domestic chips for inference, or the running of AI models. But when it comes to training AI models that aim to compete with Anthropic and OpenAI, Chinese firms still rely on Nvidia.
By using advanced Nvidia chips for training, Chinese AI firms are navigating a risky geopolitical environment. They’re highlighting that U.S. government export restrictions on Blackwell chips aren’t working as intended. That comes at a time, advances of Chinese open-source models and their use by U.S. businesses has raised concerns in the U.S. about the threat China poses in AI. Chinese open-source models are taking share from leading U.S. models, hurting their potential.
Moreover, some in the U.S. claim Chinese firms are training their models using U.S. tech. In his X post about Moonshot, Kratsios also accused the firm of using U.S. AI models’ output to train K3 in a practice known as distillation.
**New Arms Race**
Kimi K3, released on July 16, [sent shock waves](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/new-kimi-k3-model-means-u-s-china-ai-race?rc=jnr9wn) through the global AI industry by demonstrating frontier-level coding capabilities and matching or even surpassing top U.S. models on some benchmarks.
“Kimi K3 has started a new round of arms race” among Chinese AI developers, said a researcher at a major Chinese tech firm who works on model training. This researcher and others working for Chinese AI firms say they need advanced Nvidia chips, which excel in stability and high-speed networking, to train huge powerful models with frontier-level capabilities. Training such models with domestic chips would be very difficult, if not impossible, they say.
To assemble enough computing power to train K3, Moonshot tapped at least two different Chinese cloud firms with Blackwell chips, according to the three people. (It isn’t clear how Chinese cloud firms got the Blackwell chips. Their access is likely in contravention of U.S. export rules.) No single supplier could offer enough chips, forcing Moonshot to connect many eight-chip Blackwell servers together. That’s a much smaller configuration than the biggest U.S. AI companies typically use for training AI models, according to one of the people.
Moonshot’s engineers refined the network design to improve how Blackwell chips communicated with each other and across data centers run by different providers.
**Inference Needs**
Moonshot also relies heavily on Nvidia chips such as H20—which U.S. rules allow Chinese startups to buy—to run K3 on the Kimi platform, according to three people with direct knowledge of the situation. Moonshot recommends cloud firms or other customers that host K3 on their servers to connect at least 64 server chips to run it.
The massive popularity of K3 strained Moonshot’s computing capacity, prompting the startup to stop accepting new subscriptions within 48 hours. “Our GPUs are feeling it,” the company said in an X post last week. Moonshot said it would reopen subscriptions as it adds more computing capacity.
Finding more resources to run the K3 API for customers will take time. Beijing has discouraged local companies from using Nvidia’s H20 and wants them to use Chinese-designed AI chips. But the large servers needed to run models such as K3, which connect dozens or hundreds of chips designed by firms including Huawei, are not widely available yet. Customers can wait as long as six months for delivery, according to the three people.
Many Chinese firms use offshore AI data centers with Nvidia chips to train models. Tencent, for example, rented computing power from a data center near Osaka that is equipped with thousands of Blackwell chips owned by Japan’s Datasection, according to [the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/9b47c335-9633-4560-9f57-5736c9d04bef?syn-25a6b1a6=1). Such arrangements are not currently prohibited, but Washington is considering tighter controls on Chinese companies’ remote access to advanced U.S. chips. The Information [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/u-s-investigates-chinese-ai-companies-access-chips-amid-moonshot-accusations?rc=jnr9wn) last week that the Bureau of Industry and Security, an agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce, is formally investigating whether Chinese firms like Moonshot are accessing advanced U.S. AI chips.
While the success of K3 prompted the Trump administration to ramp up its attacks on Chinese models, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in an [interview](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/22/nvidia-jensen-huang-china-open-source-ai) with Axios that U.S. companies should “absolutely” be allowed to use Chinese open-source models like K3. Late last week, Huang made his [first-ever post](https://x.com/JensenHuang/status/2080643682408321103?s=20) on X to share a letter signed by Nvidia and 24 other companies emphasizing the importance of open-source models. “The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models,” he said.
So far, [the vast majority of American cloud firms, tech incumbents and startups favor allowing U.S. businesses to use Chinese open-weight models](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/silicon-valley-unites-anthropic-chinese-ai-restrictions?rc=c48ukx). A smaller number of firms, namely Anthropic and OpenAI, have advocated for some restrictions or regulations or otherwise discourage U.S. businesses from using such models over theoretical national security or cybersecurity risks.
Other Chinese firms are also stepping up their open-source AI game—also with help from Nvidia chips. Just days after Moonshot released K3, Alibaba Group unveiled Qwen3.8-Max, its largest-ever model at 2.4 trillion parameters, saying its performance is comparable to that of top U.S. models. Alibaba trained Qwen3.8-Max on Nvidia chips including the Blackwell, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
In December, The Information [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deepseek-using-banned-nvidia-chips-race-build-next-model?rc=jnr9wn) that DeepSeek was training its new AI model using Blackwell chips that had been smuggled into China. (Earlier this year, DeepSeek released the new model, V4.)
These episodes highlight the fact that while Chinese startups are disrupting Silicon Valley by developing highly capable open-source AI models, they still depend on U.S. technology to do so. Beijing has poured massive state funds into China’s chip industry for years, and the country is rapidly adopting domestic chips for inference, or the running of AI models. But when it comes to training AI models that aim to compete with Anthropic and OpenAI, Chinese firms still rely on Nvidia.
By using advanced Nvidia chips for training, Chinese AI firms are navigating a risky geopolitical environment. They’re highlighting that U.S. government export restrictions on Blackwell chips aren’t working as intended. That comes at a time, advances of Chinese open-source models and their use by U.S. businesses has raised concerns in the U.S. about the threat China poses in AI. Chinese open-source models are taking share from leading U.S. models, hurting their potential.
Moreover, some in the U.S. claim Chinese firms are training their models using U.S. tech. In his X post about Moonshot, Kratsios also accused the firm of using U.S. AI models’ output to train K3 in a practice known as distillation.
**New Arms Race**
Kimi K3, released on July 16, [sent shock waves](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/new-kimi-k3-model-means-u-s-china-ai-race?rc=jnr9wn) through the global AI industry by demonstrating frontier-level coding capabilities and matching or even surpassing top U.S. models on some benchmarks.
“Kimi K3 has started a new round of arms race” among Chinese AI developers, said a researcher at a major Chinese tech firm who works on model training. This researcher and others working for Chinese AI firms say they need advanced Nvidia chips, which excel in stability and high-speed networking, to train huge powerful models with frontier-level capabilities. Training such models with domestic chips would be very difficult, if not impossible, they say.
To assemble enough computing power to train K3, Moonshot tapped at least two different Chinese cloud firms with Blackwell chips, according to the three people. (It isn’t clear how Chinese cloud firms got the Blackwell chips. Their access is likely in contravention of U.S. export rules.) No single supplier could offer enough chips, forcing Moonshot to connect many eight-chip Blackwell servers together. That’s a much smaller configuration than the biggest U.S. AI companies typically use for training AI models, according to one of the people.
Moonshot’s engineers refined the network design to improve how Blackwell chips communicated with each other and across data centers run by different providers.
**Inference Needs**
Moonshot also relies heavily on Nvidia chips such as H20—which U.S. rules allow Chinese startups to buy—to run K3 on the Kimi platform, according to three people with direct knowledge of the situation. Moonshot recommends cloud firms or other customers that host K3 on their servers to connect at least 64 server chips to run it.
The massive popularity of K3 strained Moonshot’s computing capacity, prompting the startup to stop accepting new subscriptions within 48 hours. “Our GPUs are feeling it,” the company said in an X post last week. Moonshot said it would reopen subscriptions as it adds more computing capacity.
Finding more resources to run the K3 API for customers will take time. Beijing has discouraged local companies from using Nvidia’s H20 and wants them to use Chinese-designed AI chips. But the large servers needed to run models such as K3, which connect dozens or hundreds of chips designed by firms including Huawei, are not widely available yet. Customers can wait as long as six months for delivery, according to the three people.
Many Chinese firms use offshore AI data centers with Nvidia chips to train models. Tencent, for example, rented computing power from a data center near Osaka that is equipped with thousands of Blackwell chips owned by Japan’s Datasection, according to [the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/9b47c335-9633-4560-9f57-5736c9d04bef?syn-25a6b1a6=1). Such arrangements are not currently prohibited, but Washington is considering tighter controls on Chinese companies’ remote access to advanced U.S. chips. The Information [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/u-s-investigates-chinese-ai-companies-access-chips-amid-moonshot-accusations?rc=jnr9wn) last week that the Bureau of Industry and Security, an agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce, is formally investigating whether Chinese firms like Moonshot are accessing advanced U.S. AI chips.
While the success of K3 prompted the Trump administration to ramp up its attacks on Chinese models, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in an [interview](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/22/nvidia-jensen-huang-china-open-source-ai) with Axios that U.S. companies should “absolutely” be allowed to use Chinese open-source models like K3. Late last week, Huang made his [first-ever post](https://x.com/JensenHuang/status/2080643682408321103?s=20) on X to share a letter signed by Nvidia and 24 other companies emphasizing the importance of open-source models. “The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models,” he said.
So far, [the vast majority of American cloud firms, tech incumbents and startups favor allowing U.S. businesses to use Chinese open-weight models](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/silicon-valley-unites-anthropic-chinese-ai-restrictions?rc=c48ukx). A smaller number of firms, namely Anthropic and OpenAI, have advocated for some restrictions or regulations or otherwise discourage U.S. businesses from using such models over theoretical national security or cybersecurity risks.
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