中微公司董事长尹志尧工博会警示AI资本开支泡沫风险，并重申三年扩品类与130亿元研发规划

AMEC chairman Gerald Yin. Credit: China International Industry Fair

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) chairman and general manager Gerald Yin has warned of a potential AI investment bubble, cautioning that surging demand for chipmaking equipment does not shield the semiconductor industry from cyclical swings in capital expenditure.

Speaking at the 26th China International Industry Fair in Shanghai on October 12, Yin cited semiconductor investment cycles between 1984 and 2026, when demand driven by successive technologies, from PCs to smartphones, produced sharp expansions followed by downturns. Macroeconomic weakness could further depress end-market demand and equipment orders.
Citing SEMI forecasts, Yin said global wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) sales could exceed US$140 billion in 2026 and approach US$170 billion in 2027. Yet semiconductor capital expenditure, more than 70% of which goes towards equipment purchases, can surge 100% or contract 30% within a year. He also highlighted a disparity between nearly 100% growth in chip production and sales and roughly 17% growth in semiconductor equipment, questioning whether current AI enthusiasm can sustain investment.
AMEC targets 100 products as China's equipment sector faces consolidation
Yin expects consolidation across China's fragmented semiconductor equipment industry, which he estimates comprises 500 to nearly 1,000 companies, compared with only dozens in the US following years of restructuring.
According to Guancha.cn , AMEC plans to develop 100 specialized equipment products over the next three to five years, investing CNY13 billion (≈ US$1.94 billion) in research and development. It aims to cover more than 60% of integrated circuit equipment categories by 2030 and over 70% of equipment categories for emerging chip architectures within several years.
The expansion reflects intense international competition. Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and Applied Materials collectively command approximately 90% of the global etching equipment market, leaving AMEC with a comparatively small international presence despite its strong domestic position.
Yin argued that Chinese suppliers must consolidate and expand beyond individual equipment categories into broader technology platforms, combining etching, deposition, and inspection capabilities to compete more effectively.
AMEC expands beyond etching with sustained R&D investment
AMEC has maintained average annual revenue growth above 35% for 14 consecutive years, according to Yin. In 2025, revenue rose 36.62% to CNY12.39 billion, while net profit increased 30.69% to CNY2.11 billion. R&D spending reached CNY3.74 billion, equivalent to 30.2% of revenue. Annual sales per employee averaged CNY4.5 million, with output exceeding CNY6 million per employee.
Etching generated CNY9.832 billion, nearly 80% of 2025 revenue. AMEC's capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) and inductively coupled plasma (ICP) systems cover mature and advanced logic processes, 3D NAND, and DRAM. The company is also expanding into physical vapor deposition (PVD), chemical vapor deposition (CVD), atomic layer deposition (ALD), advanced conductive films, and epitaxial (EPI) equipment.
Its broader portfolio includes semiconductor metrology, inspection, and wet processing, alongside adjacent semiconductor and non-semiconductor applications intended to reduce cyclical exposure. However, AMEC remains dependent on US and Japanese suppliers for critical components, including radio-frequency power supplies and high-purity valves, while overseas expansion faces constraints.
Yin identified technological innovation, product differentiation, and intellectual property protection as priorities, advocating designs that combine the strengths of competing international technologies rather than merely replicating them.
His warning underscores the tension facing China's equipment makers: AI investment offers substantial near-term demand, but sustaining growth will require broader product portfolios, greater technological independence, and resilience against an eventual semiconductor spending downturn.