DigiTimes：ESMT称利基型存储供给缺口超30%、涨价延续至2027，但难复制数倍涨幅

Persistent supply shortages have kept the niche memory market hot, with Elite Semiconductor Microelectronics Technology (ESMT) estimating that the structural supply gap exceeds 30%. The company expects tight supply and demand to continue through 2028 or longer, while price increases are set to continue in the fourth quarter of 2026 and support stronger operating performance than in the third quarter.

ESMT posted consolidated revenue of NT$7.461 billion (US$229.6 million) in September 2026, down 5.6% month-over-month. The decline mainly reflected customers slowing shipments ahead of China's end-of-year holiday and some shipments being deferred for recognition until October, while customer demand and order momentum remained intact.
Contract prices for niche memory products such as DDR2 and DDR3 rose later than those for other products, with broad adjustments taking place only during the second and third quarters of 2026. Although contract prices have increased significantly, industry estimates indicate that future prices will struggle to replicate the previous multiple-fold gains. Nevertheless, quotations are expected to maintain steady double-digit growth, with the trend extending into 2027. ESMT expects pricing and operating performance in the fourth quarter to surpass those of the third quarter, keeping operations on an upward trajectory.
DRAM accounts for more than 60% of ESMT's total revenue and remains its core source of profit. Flash products, including NOR, NAND, and multi-chip packages packages, contribute slightly more than 30%, while the remainder comes from products such as audio components.
Based on customer feedback, ESMT estimates that the overall supply shortfall for niche memory remains at 30% or more. Although end-market applications have diverged structurally, underlying demand remains solid, particularly in commercial and industrial-control applications, where specifications are demanding and customers have greater ability to pass on costs. Customers in these segments have remained relatively aggressive in placing orders, making them the main support for ESMT's current operations.
As Taiwanese memory makers including Nanya Technology and Winbond adjust their production lines, gradually reducing mature-node supply or strategically supporting selected partners, market spillover and order transfers continue to intensify, benefiting ESMT. Consumer electronics face cost pressures and year-end balance-sheet adjustments, which could create a wait-and-see atmosphere in the short term as customers seek to avoid excess inventory. Actual production capacity, however, remains highly limited.
Development and tuning of ESMT's 19nm process are progressing smoothly. The process is expected to contribute revenue in the first half of 2027, with 4Gb DDR4 products likely to lead shipments. ESMT will continue to allocate capacity according to wafer output efficiency and average selling prices (ASP).
As wafer-fabrication costs continue to rise, ESMT said costs throughout the supply chain, including memory wafers and back-end OSAT services, have been adjusted successively. Most customers also understand the industry's current changes. ESMT's unaudited July profit showed monthly earnings per share of NT$11.61, up 3,728% year-over-year. Monthly earnings exceeded one share of paid-in capital, limiting the impact on actual gross margins and supporting expectations for stable profitability.